Texas Winter Weather Thread #3 - GFS showing cold christmas

[weatherrabbit_tx]

wow! 38.8 and still going down, we'll see in the morning how low then, other then that ya'll have a goodnite!

[gboudx]

I know this will be an unpopular request, but can the temperature updates be put on a separate thread? I've been guilty of posting temps for my areas as well on these Texas Winter Weather thread, but wading through pages of temp updates can be too much to try and find more pertinent posts related to forecasts, etc.

Again, I know this will be unpopular, so flame away if you must.

[jasons2k]

My low was 34F - No worries. Now at 37. Looks like my last post last night was in one of those clear patches. I'm glad the clouds came back - it's a perfect December morning

[Extremeweatherguy]

Last night IAH hit 32F, Hooks hit 36F and Conroe hit 28F. It was a cold one for sure, but luckily many escaped a freeze (especially in the Tomball-Woodlands area) due to more clouds.

[Extremeweatherguy]

It is pretty interesting to note that for the first 8 days of December Houston has averaged 9.2-degrees below normal (at IAH).

If this cold pattern would have continued through the month..it would have been one of Houston's coldest Decembers on record. (1989, the coldest on record for Houston, averaged about 9-degrees below normal for the entire month.)

If we can manage to remain at least 3.6-degrees below normal for the month though, then we can tie for the 10th coldest Houston December on record (currently held by 1997 and 1925).

[WhiteShirt]

It was sleeting in Anahuac about an hour ago. Anahuac is 40 or so miles east of Houston.

[Extremeweatherguy]

It was sleeting in Anahuac about an hour ago. Anahuac is 40 or so miles east of Houston.

Really? Well I guess that is very possible considering the atmosphere is still very dry (with low wetbulb temps). This whole area probably has a chance of some rain/sleet during the day today, but it should be isolated (10-20% precip. chances). The sleet threat will likely then end tonight.

[Tireman4]

Oh my gosh. Sleet. Yahooo. Oh. I guess that is a MAJOR BIG TIME IF. Oh well.

[Extremeweatherguy]

11:50am CDT radar shot:

[Portastorm]

Alright ... fresh off my "how to read the ensembles lesson," looks like we may be seeing a return to much colder in about 10-12 days if these ensemble runs are close to accurate.

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/ ... 88_us.html

They've shown this for several days and the GFSX is also showing this.

http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/10d/gfsx_850_10d.html

Let's see if this continues ...

[Johnny]

Thanks for the update Portastorm. With the way these arctic fronts have been coming down, this scenario seems plausible. Does it look like we will start seeing the return of COLD weather before Christmas? I sure hope so.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I'm upset that all this rain we are getting today couldn't have come two days earlier! If it would of, then I would likely be seeing snow/sleet right now.

[double D]

I think the GFS is "hinting" at some colder air coming down in about 10-12 days too. Let's see if the OP runs can start matching the ensembles then we may be back in business.

[CajunMama]

I'm upset that all this rain we are getting today couldn't have come two days earlier! If it would of, then I would likely be seeing snow/sleet right now.

I said the same thing last night in chat when it was raining here!

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Well I hope all of you GFS watchers are right in what you are seeing. Seems last year at this time we had a week or so of below normal weather and then the rest of the month was warm, including Christmas.

Having said that I do see similar patterns for Dec that we had in some of our cooler Decembers.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

For what it's worth and I am surprised Portastorm or EWG didn't note this. JB is aggreeing the Arctic air returns to the west in 10 or so days. That would be good news for us Texas cold lovers, right?

[Ptarmigan]

11:50am CDT radar shot:

It appears East Texas got sleet and even snow.

[JenBayles]

How about this nice gloomy, rainy day in West Houston, huh? What a perfect day to hole up and hunker down and veg on the couch. This weekend has been a whirlwind until just now, so I'm grateful for the season weather at the moment. I can handle the slight warmup for now, but sure hope we get a good blast of cold air and at least clouds for Christmas. Crossin' my fingers!

[aggiecutter]

According to both the Ensembles and the Euro, the trough goes into the west in the medium range and then progresses to the central part of the country 3-5 days later. It still remains to be seen how much cold air will be available in Canada at the time the trough arrives, but this is something to keep an eye. Also, the pattern is entering a stormy phase for the next couple weeks. In the interim, we will be warm and wet.

Noon Ensembles:
http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/t ... 21012.html

[Extremeweatherguy]

For what it's worth and I am surprised Portastorm or EWG didn't note this. JB is aggreeing the Arctic air returns to the west in 10 or so days. That would be good news for us Texas cold lovers, right?

yeah, he said it (arctic air) will be bottled up the next 7-days, but then after it may start spilling down into the west. Then after reaching the west it should eventually work eastward and reach the east coast sometime after Christmas. This is good news for Texas because it means a nice cold period may be arriving right around Christmas time for us.