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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
310 PM CST THU DEC 7 2006
.DISCUSSION...
LARGE 1040-ISH MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SE NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY SETTLE OVER THE GULF COASTAL STATES AND TENNESSEE
VALLEY THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE EASTERN PROGRESSION OF THE HIGH
WILL STILL USHER IN VERY COLD AND DRY CANADIAN PLAIN AIR OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT THIS SOUTHEAST VERSUS DUE-SOUTH JOG OF HIGH WILL KEEP
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CAA OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION. REGARDLESS...OUR
CWA WILL STILL FEEL THE EFFECT OF THIS LATEST NORTHERN AIR MASS.
AS HIGH SINKS SOUTHEAST...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
UP TO KEEP WINDS HIGH ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE BAY AND GULF
WATERS...BUT HAVE DECIDED TO DROP THE INLAND WIND ADVISORY AS
CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT OVERNIGHT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL ATTAIN THAT
25 MPH OR GREATER STATUS. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL STAY UP ENOUGH
TONIGHT WITH A SLOWLY ERODING HIGH CLOUD DECK TO COUNTERACT CAA
AND KEEP OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS ABOVE 30 FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...ALTHOUGH EXTREME NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL DIP BELOW
FREEZING AND INTO THE UPPER 20S FOR A GOOD 6 TO 8 HOURS.
A DEFINITE COAT AND HAT DAY TOMORROW UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS
MORNING TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 40S. ALTHOUGH TOMORROW`S HIGHS WILL BE AN AVERAGE 20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY DECEMBER...WE WILL NOT NEAR ANY LOW MAXIMUM
RECORDS. THOSE CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TEENS ACROSS THE RED
RIVER VALLEY WILL BE OVER US BY THE MORNING SO THE FULL EFFECT OF
THIS AIR MASS UNDER WEAKENING NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE FELT
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
THIS WEEKEND`S WEATHER BECOMES MORE COMPLEX AS THE CURRENT BAJA
UPPER LOW OPENS INTO A WAVE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. GFS SHOWS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING IN ALONG THE COASTAL REGIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY. VORTS PASSING ON THROUGH IN PREDOMINANT W-SW FLOW WILL
HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH IN PRODUCING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIP. THE LONE EXCEPTION IS OVER MATAGORDA BAY AND SURROUNDING
COUNTIES WHERE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHER SIMPLY DUE TO THE FACT
OF HIGHER MOISTURE RETURN ON THOSE VEERING EASTERLY WINDS.
LONG RANGE PICTURE LOOKS WET WITH A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
TUESDAY. UPPER TROF OVER GREAT BASIN WITH ASSOCIATED DEEPENING
WESTERN GREAT PLAINS SURFACE TROF WILL INITIATE SUNDAY`S STRENGTHENING
ONSHORE FLOW. SUBSEQUENT WARM FRONT MOVING UP THE COAST LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE POPS. TOO FAR OUT
TO PEG A TIMING ON THE EVENTUAL CORE FRONT REACHING CENTRAL TEXAS
BUT CURRENT MODEL ENSEMBLE DOES POINT TOWARDS POSSIBLE SEVERE
WEATHER. LARGE SCALE DIVERGENCE WITH FAVORABLE RF QUAD JET
DYNAMICS IN A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WARRANTS MENTION
OF SEVERE ON TUESDAY.
The AFD mentions highs only in the mid to upper 40s tomorrow, yet the latest zone forecast says this:
Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 51. Northeast wind between 5 and 10 mph.
Does that make any sense to anyone else? I guess we will have to see what really happens, but either way it is going to be COLD!
