Texas winter weather thread #2 - winter weather on Friday?

[Brent]

This morning I wasn't sure if the NWS was talking about winter precip. with their AFD use of "bear watch", but this afternoon I am not so sure. In fact, I think they now may be. Take a look for yourself. Quote from EWG.

I not so sure about that. I have browsed through other NWS discussions and haven't found anything that might be that cold. Maybe the Houston NWS is using the EURO for thier forecast? Here is a little snipet from the Fort Worth NWS:

OVERALL...IT WILL BE A COOL BUT PLEASANT WEEK WITH ONLY ONE
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR RAIN LATE IN THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
NOT BE EXTREMELY COLD...JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL.

Yeah, I am not sure myself if anything like that will happen, but the Houston AFD sure does make it sound that way this afteroon. Other areas don't seem as thrilled. I guess we will see what happens..

There's only a small chance of a little "rain" here Thursday Night, so I seriously doubt there's anything close to snow anywhere in the Southeast unless something big changes.

But it is weather in the southeast... you never know.

[WhiteShirt]

what kind of high temps are possible here, EWG?

[Extremeweatherguy]

what kind of high temps are possible here, EWG?

Still too early to tell for sure, but highs in the 40s are certainly a possibility. It all depends on the level of cold air, cloud cover, and precipitation coverage. If we get a lot of cold air, lots of clouds and precipitation..then it could be even colder than the 40s, but if we see variable clouds, weaker cold air, and less rain, then it will likely be in the 50s to near 60F for a high. Really there are still too many questions at this time.

We should have a better idea come Monday/Tuesday.

[WhiteShirt]

Is this for the end of this week?

[wxman22]

Theres still a BEAR WATCH in effect!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
338 AM CST SUN DEC 3 2006

.DISCUSSION...
AT THE SURFACE EARLY THIS MORNING...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS BEGUN
TO TIGHTEN UP AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING
SURFACE WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND OFFSHORE.
ANTICIPATE TODAY`S SPEEDS TO REMAIN UNDER WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. THIS
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH IS REINFORCING THE COLD EARLY DECEMBER AIRMASS
ALREADY IN PLACE AND WILL ACTUALLY BRING US SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. OUR COLDEST NIGHT WILL PROBABLY COME TONIGHT
WITH SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS
(THE LONGEST DURATION WILL PROBABLY BE BETWEEN 6 AND 9 HOURS ACROSS
OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES). AFTER ANOTHER COOL DAY ON MONDAY...EXPECT A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND AND INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO EDGE OFF TO THE EAST AND A WEAK
RETURN FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED. THIS FLOW WILL BE SHORT-LIVED WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHER MOISTURE
LEVELS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ASSOCIATED WITH SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND AN ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM WILL BRING THE AREA OUR NEXT BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN...MOST LIKELY SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. PREFER
FOR NOW TO RETAIN THE LOW POPS DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF POSSIBLE COASTAL
TROUGH DEVELOPMENT AND EVENTUAL SURFACE LOW FORMATION SOMEWHERE IN THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. IF THE GFSX MOS POPS CONTINUE TO RISE...WE`LL
PROBABLY END UP RAISING OUR NUMBERS. HOWEVER...THIS PATTERN COULD END
UP PRODUCING MUCH BETTER RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE COAST AND/OR OFFSHORE
AND MUCH LOWER RAIN CHANCES INLAND. WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
OUR AREA AND OFFSHORE MAY ALSO BECOME A PROBLEM ONCE AGAIN DEPENDING
ON WHEN/WHERE THE COASTAL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW FORM (SEE MORE ON THE
MARINE INPACT IN THE MARINE SECTION BELOW). BEAR WATCH MODE CONTINUES.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The low temperatures for tonight have dropped. I am now expected 29F in my area, IAH is expecting 31F, and in the northern counties they are expecting as cold as 26F.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Anyone else noticing the development of showers to our SW?

http://wwwa.accuweather.com/radar-large ... e&large=1'

Are these real radar returns? Is this reaching the ground? If so, then that is very interesting because I don't think this was expected to happen. We will have to watch how this plays out. If we do not get a lot of sunshine, then I bet there is a chance we could be stuck in the 40s today.

[vbhoutex]

Wlel, it doesn't look like it is moving this way, but it could happen. It is expected to be clear today, but we already have some clouds overhead so we may not make the mid 50's as expected.

[wxman22]

Where I'm at it's expected to get 30F in Cypress (North CyFair)

[Extremeweatherguy]

Morning temperatures right now:

[JenBayles]

Anyone else noticing the development of showers to our SW?

http://wwwa.accuweather.com/radar-large ... e&large=1'

Are these real radar returns? Is this reaching the ground? If so, then that is very interesting because I don't think this was expected to happen. We will have to watch how this plays out. If we do not get a lot of sunshine, then I bet there is a chance we could be stuck in the 40s today.

I hope it holds off a few more hours if it IS trying to make its way up here. Today is the 27th annual San Jacinto Highrollers Toy Run out to Boys & Girls Country. Large motorcycle rides are inherently dangerous even with a police escort - adding rain-slick streets just makes it that much more difficult. Here's hoping they generate lots of money and toys for the kids.

[Portastorm]

All I know is bbbrrrr ... my youngest son had a 930 am baseball tournament game this morning in Georgetown. First pitch temp was 36 degrees and 1 hr and 15 minutes later, it was still 36!!

North winds biting enough to make you feel colder. Feels like winter to me!

[Extremeweatherguy]

The clouds have really cleared up nicely out there, but the wind and 50F temps. still make it feel cold!

[Yankeegirl]

The clouds are still here, but pretty thin... i am sitting at 53 now... and breezy...

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looks like I spoke too soon. I am now under a thin overcast sky once again after getting a 1-2 hour sunny period.

[Brent]

WOW... the NWS here has 20 for tomorrow night and 21 for Tuesday night here. Near record cold! They put out a special statement on it. So far my coldest morning this season was 28.

[Extremeweatherguy]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
414 PM CST SUN DEC 3 2006

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA SINKING DOWN ACROSS TEXAS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WILL KEEP OUR MAINLY CLEAR NIGHTS COLD AND OUR
SCATTERED CLOUDY DAYS 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL. CURRENT 21Z
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH OVER
ABILENE (1040 MB) AND MODEL ENSEMBLE DEPICTS THIS VERY STABLE
AIRMASS ENTRENCHING ITSELF OVER TEXAS THROUGH TUESDAY. CLOUD COVER
WILL BE THE DIFFERENCE WHETHER WE NEAR RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT. THE FORECAST IS FOR CLEARING SKIES POST-6Z PLAYING THE
"SETTLING HIGH" CARD WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DECOUPLE THOSE PRE-
SUNRISE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF OUR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TIER
COUNTIES. LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT CLL AND IAH ARE IN JEOPARDY
IF THE ABOVE PATTERN DOES PAN OUT. FORECASTING 27 AT CLL WITH A
RECORD OF 28 IN THAT COLD DECEMBER OF 1989...30 AT IAH WITH A
RECORD OF 31 FROM THE BICENTENNIAL YEAR OF 1976.

TUESDAY THE RIDGE BEGINS TO ELONGATE AND STRETCH IN ORIENTATION
WITH THE GULF COASTLINE. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER TO THE
EAST IN RESPONSE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY BUT...AS RIDGE REBUILDS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S...ONSHORE WINDS WILL RETURN TO SLIGHTLY RE-
MOISTEN THE LOWER LEVELS. LEE-SIDE ROCKY LOW WITH ACCOMPANYING
FRONT WILL TRAVEL DOWN ACROSS US FROM THE PANHANDLE LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO EARLY THURSDAY. RAIN THREAT WILL INCREASE MAINLY IN THE
DYNAMIC-SENSE DURING THE LATE WED-EARLY FRI PERIOD. MODEL CROSS-
SECTIONS BOAST VERY DRY MID-LEVELS ABOVE SHALLOW LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE AS THE RETURN TO THAT MIDWEEK ONSHORE FLOW IS SO SHORT-
LIVED. HAVE KEEP POPS HIGHER SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 AND OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES DUE TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER PW`S. THE HIGH WILL
BUILD IN ON FRIDAY BUT ITS PUSH WILL NOT BE IMPRESSIVE ENOUGH TO
INCREASE NORTHERLY WINDS TO INLAND ADVISORY LEVELS. ALTHOUGH THIS
NEXT DRY...NORTHERN AIR MASS WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS THIS PAST
WEEK`S ARCTIC SHOT...BE AWARE OF RE-NEWED MARINE FLAGS GOING UP INTO
THE LATE WORK WEEK.

Forecasted lows tonight:

IAH = 30F
Spring = 28F
Conroe = 24F
Downtown Houston = 30F
College Station = 27F
Huntsville = 25F
Galveston = 39F

BRRRR!!! This will be the coldest night of the season for sure if we clear out! I could very well be looking at numbers in the 24-28F range when I awake tomorrow morning.

[Yankeegirl]

Just got home from the light parade on HW6... it was cold!!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looks like the high pressure is really starting to move in. Half way overhead and to my south there is a deck of clouds, but to my north and west there are completely clear skies. Seems like this clearing line is moving south too. Based on this...I would say record low territory is very possible tomorrow morning as it seems that we should be clear.

BTW: this clearing seems to also be reaching us 3 hours or so before the NWS predicted. This could possibly mean may be 1-2 more degrees being shaved off the forecast. We will have to see what they say in the evening AFD update...

[Extremeweatherguy]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
852 PM CST SUN DEC 3 2006

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG 1041 MB SFC HIGH IS SETTLING SOUTH INTO TEXAS THIS EVENING.
CLOUD COVER IS ERODING FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS
EVENING WITH SKIES ALREADY CLEARING IN AREAS NORTH OF I-10.
EXPECTING CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT OF THE COASTAL/SW ZONES BY MIDNIGHT.
WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO DECOUPLE OVER THE AREA AND EXPECTING SPEEDS TO
DROP TO 5-10 MPH BY MIDNIGHT EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
HAVE RAISED MINS SLIGHTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA DUE
TO THE CLOUDS/WINDS THIS EVENING BUT STILL FORECASTING A LIGHT
FREEZE FOR MOST AREAS SOUTH OF I-10 EXCEPT METRO HOUSTON WHICH
COULD REMAIN IN THE MID 30S. OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF SE
TX...TEMPS COULD REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FOR 5 TO 7 HOURS
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL LOWER SCA TO AN SCEC FOR THE BAYS THE REST OF TONIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY. HAVE LOWERED WINDS A BIT OVER ALL THE WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD MINS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT COLLEGE STATION AND HOUSTON MONDAY
MORNING.

RECORD LOWS FOR MON 12/4:
COLLEGE STATION - 28/1989
HOUSTON INTERCONTINENTAL - 31/1976
GALVESTON - 30/1897

Basically, it looks like a tale of two regions tonight. If you are south of I-10 it will be cold (30-35F), but not record-setting, and if you are north of I-10 it will be very cold (23-30F) with record-setting lows likely in many areas.

This is likely what it will look like tomorrow morning:

North of Conroe = Low to mid 20s
Between Conroe and Spring (as well as areas west of Harris County such as Brenham) = Mid to upper 20s
North Harris county (south of Spring) = Upper 20s to near 31F
Inside the Loop = 30-35F
SW of Houston (Sugar Land, Wharton, etc) = 28-34F
SE of Houston = 32-38F
Galveston Island = 38-43F

**local cold pockets could be 1-3 degrees colder**

BTW: I am now under clear skies here in Spring with only light winds (but not calm winds quite yet).