Texas winter weather thread #2 - winter weather on Friday?

[Extremeweatherguy]

It is amazing that we can go from being in the 30's yesterday in Fredericksburg to 61 today. Talk about a nice recovery.

Only 54F here today, but yes it was a pretty amazing recovery from the 30s yesterday afternoon.

[Portastorm]

Thursday-Friday of next week will be the last of several cold shots, then the pattern will relax for the next couple weeks. The long range Ensembles show pressures lowering in Canada past day 7, which is not conducive to Arctic outbreaks. However, I did read above that Joe Bastardi sycophant, Portastorm, just kidding, said that Joe is tauting the return of winter the last the 10 days of the month. I think he said it would return with a vengeance. We'll see what happens. If this truly is a pattern and not an abberation, then winter will indeed return in a couple weeks.

You know, I've been called many things .... but I think this is the FIRST time I've been called a JB sycophant!!

aggiecutter, you gave me a good laugh.

I totally reject your comparison to me lauding Accuweather's genius and most outstanding knowledge-bearer of all things meteorological ...

[Extremeweatherguy]

I know this is the 18Z GFS and it is day 15, but it is still fun to look at..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _348.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _360.shtml

[Portastorm]

In the continuing vein of "gee, if this model run were to verify ... " ... I give you the new 12z run of the Euro. Check out the loop and especially days 6-7. Looks to me like we'll have good polar air flowing down into Texas and in the latter part of the run, it appears like a short wave is riding down the jet approaching Texas.

Would this mean another threat of winter precip? I dunno. I could be reading this thing wrong. Talk amongst yourselves.

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/loop.ecmwf850t.html

[aggiecutter]

Portastorm, you might be onto something. From past experience, I have noticed that we have winter precip either on the front or back end of cold cycles.

[Extremeweatherguy]

That does look interesting. We will have to watch to see if this look continues in future runs. Let's hope it does!

[aggiecutter]

I just went and checked the local forecast for Texarkana and read the medium range discussion. They mention the afore mentioned low and the chance of rain Thursday and Thursday night. With frontal passage the day before, It would not surprise me if the precip, if it indeed comes to fruition, is not of the frozen variety. Right now, they are forecasting lows in the mid 30's. However, it is not uncommon for the Shreveport weather office to be rather conservative with their temp forecast this far in advance. This is definitely something to keep an eye on because I think this air mass will modify very little as there will be snow cover in the plains.

Shreveport Weather Office Discussion:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/shv/productview ... =SHVAFDSHV

[Extremeweatherguy]

7pm Houston area observations:

Conroe = 38F - Fair
Tomball = 41F - Fair
IAH = 44F (has actually risen a degree..strange) - Mostly cloudy
Hobby = 45F - Mostly cloudy

My temperature = 38.1F
My sky conditions= High clouds moving in from the south. They are moving very quickly and are scattered in nature, but are increasing in coverage at the time.

It is these clouds that will probably hold temperatures up tonight. However, a light freeze still looks likely with most places north of I-10 in the lower 30s by daybreak Saturday.

[Yankeegirl]

I am sitting at 42.6 here...

[TexasStooge]

It's 39*F here.

[jasons2k]

It's 38 here with clouds moving in and the dewpoint keeps rising. I noticed on my way home from the Mall it looked like some patchy fog was forming. If that's the case maybe we'll be spared from another freeze, but we are really close.

[Extremeweatherguy]

This is strange. I would have thought the lows would be raised tonight. Guess I was wrong..

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
841 PM CST FRI DEC 1 2006


.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SOUTHWEST OUT OF MID MS VALLEY HIGH
INTO SOUTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. WINDS HAVE GONE CALM AND WITH VERY
DRY AIRMASS...PWS ON THE ORDER OF .25... TEMPS HAVE FALLEN RATHER
QUICKLY INTO THE 30S OUTSIDE THE URBAN CENTER OF HOUSTON. WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S SOUTHWEST AND UPPER 20S
NORTH...EXPECT INLAND MINS TO DROP NEAR THOSE READINGS. THIS IS A
BIT LOWER THAN CURRENT FORECAST SO WILL ADJUST ACCORDINGLY.

LIGHT WINDS AND LOWER SEAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TIGHTENS THE GRADIENT SLOWLY
TOMORROW THEN MORE SO ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH SPEEDS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

The new forecasted low for my area is 30F for tonight (down from 32F earlier).

[Extremeweatherguy]

At 10pm...

Conroe = 34F
Tomball = 38F
IAH = 40F
Hobby = 44F

My thermometer = 35.4F

BTW: The clouds have broken up a lot since earlier and it is much clearer. Also, the winds are DEAD CALM. Looks like things are certainly setting up for another chilly night..probably as cold as last night for most of us (except with frost this time since there is no wind).

[jasons2k]

Looks like one of those nights where temperatures will range widely across the area. I'm at 37 and the dewpoint has dropped from 35 to 34.

[Extremeweatherguy]

update: high clouds have recently built back in, but it is calm outside (wind-wise) still.

temperatures still in the mid 30s.

[Yankeegirl]

I am at 41.2, hasnt dropped too much ....

[Extremeweatherguy]

These clouds have really thickened and airport temps. have stabalized. Unless they clear out, I don't think we will drop more than a few more degrees.

Also, if these clouds don't clear out by tomorrow then I am not sure if we will make the predicted high of 57F. Looking at the satellite image, it sure doesn't look like they will:

[Portastorm]

With regards to Texas weather later this coming week ... the 0z Euro run continues to show a colder scenario than the GFS 0z and 6z runs. Furthermore, the Euro continues to suggest some kind of upper level energy to our west.

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ECMWF/e ... mp_168.gif

Meanwhile, I see some discussion this morning from the HOU forecast office about a possible coastal trough and Gulf low forming during the same time frame. I guess none of this should surprise us as the active Southern jet is starting to show classic El Nino signs.

0z GFS run:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _168.shtml

The 6z GFS run shows energy a little further south in the GOM as compared to the 0z run:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _162.shtml

And this morning's discussion from the Hydrometeorological center in DC suggests that the Euro is showing its common bias of holding too much energy back in the SW and is biting on the Gulf low scenario. See text:

THE MODELS AGREE ON THESE IDEAS...THOUGH THEY DIFFER ON DETAILS
SUCH AS TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A POSSIBLE CLOSED CYCLONE MOVING
FROM THE PLAINS THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE NEXT
WEEK. SINCE THERE IS MORE AGREEMENT ON THIS FEATURE DEVELOPING
LATE IN THE PERIOD AMONGST THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/CAN...FOR PRESSURES
DECIDED TO BLEND THE 00Z GFS WITH THE 00Z NCEP ENSMEAN. THOUGH THE
CANADIAN WAS TOO DEEP AND PROGRESSIVE AND THAT THE ECMWF APPEARED
TOO FAR SOUTHWEST FOR THE TIME BEING. THIS INTRODUCES A GULF OF
MEXICO CYCLONE WHICH MOVES EASTWARD TOWARDS FLORIDA LATE IN THE
PERIOD...NOT AN UNCOMMON EVENT FOR EL NINO WINTERS. THIS WOULD
BRING A COLD RAIN TO THE GULF COAST AS THE TRACK APPEARS TO BE A
LITTLE TOO FAR NORTH /AND IT IS A LITTLE TOO EARLY
CLIMATOLOGICALLY/ FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION NEAR
THE GULF COAST.

**********************

Any way you slice it, looks like we have another active week ahead whether it be wintry or just wet!

[Kennethb]

I agree with the HMC in that it is too early to expect wintry precip this far south, but this pattern will play off in January and February when historically our area sees such.

[double D]

Thanks Portastorm for the write up. It goes to show you just how difficult it is to produce winter weather this far south, so many ingredients have to come together. It will be intresting to see if the GFS and ECMWF can come into better agreement in future runs to give us a better idea of what is going to happen.