Texas winter weather thread #2 - winter weather on Friday?

[CaptinCrunch]

Welcome back AFM!! Just in time for all the Texas snow storms of winter 06/07!!

[jasons2k]

Some were asking a few days ago about how it could be colder in Victoria than Houston - here is another example of how it can be colder in areas to the SW - some of these spots WAY to the south:

12/01/06 - Morning Lows

Bush IAH: 32F
Kingsville: 30F
El Campo: 29F
San Antonio: 29F
Victoria: 28F
Alice: 28F
Cotulla: 25F

Also, Del Rio had a record low 26F

[Portastorm]

Some were asking a few days ago about how it could be colder in Victoria than Houston - here is another example of how it can be colder in areas to the SW - some of these spots WAY to the south:

12/01/06 - Morning Lows

Bush IAH: 32F
Kingsville: 30F
El Campo: 29F
San Antonio: 29F
Victoria: 28F
Alice: 28F
Cotulla: 25F

Also, Del Rio had a record low 26F

Oh ... most definitely and I would contend that this temperatue profile is very typical for Texas and cold air outbreaks. I'd also credit some of that snow cover in the Panhandle and South Plains ... areas north and northwest of San Antonio/Victoria/Alice/Cotulla/Del Rio etc.

[Rainband]

Welcome Back AFM

[vbhoutex]

That same snow cover now to our N will help hold our temps dOwn in the evenings when the next shot comes through on Sunday. Much less modification of the temps will occur this time. We are going to stay cooler for longer this time.

[slim79]

stooge the all the freezing rain and sleet in Dallas Ft. Worth must have thrown off the snow accumulations off... im in northwest Dallas and there was easily an inch of snow on the rooftoops and in some grassy areas and tabletops and car windshields.... there was enough snow to make mini snowmen as well people had them in their yards..........

[Extremeweatherguy]

I hit 27F this morning in NW Houston.

Other cold spots in this general vicinity were:

Tomball = 29F
Conroe = 28F

Looks like most areas north of I-10 saw 20s...except for the normal warmer spots such as IAH and other areas with lots of concrete and/or tree cover. Nearly everyone had a freeze though (and you can tell by looking at how beat up the banana trees are).

[Extremeweatherguy]

I am getting really concerned about Sunday night/Monday morning. The models continue to look cold and have been trending colder and colder. Also, with such a strong high over the state (1035-1040mb+) I think hard freeze conditions are possible.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _060.shtml
^^18Z NAM for next Sunday night/Monday morning^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _072.shtml
^^12Z GFS for next Sunday night/Monday morning^^

http://weather.unisys.com/ecmwf/ecmwf_500p_4d.gif
^^ECMWF model for next Monday morning^^

At the very least, another night like last night is likely.

[CajunMama]

I hit 27F this morning in NW Houston.

Other cold spots in this general vicinity were:

Tomball = 29F
Conroe = 28F

Looks like most areas north of I-10 saw 20s...except for the normal warmer spots such as IAH and other areas with lots of concrete and/or tree cover. Nearly everyone had a freeze though (and you can tell by looking at how beat up the banana trees are).

Imagine...ewg had the lowest temp again

[senorpepr]

I hit 27F this morning in NW Houston.

Other cold spots in this general vicinity were:

Tomball = 29F
Conroe = 28F

Looks like most areas north of I-10 saw 20s...except for the normal warmer spots such as IAH and other areas with lots of concrete and/or tree cover. Nearly everyone had a freeze though (and you can tell by looking at how beat up the banana trees are).

Is your thermometer a properly calibrated instrument? Does it have an official certification? Is it placed in a proper spot and at a proper height? I only ask because you are consistently lower that other nearby sites and you have frequently made this point against the NWS.

[Opal storm]

I am getting really concerned about Sunday night/Monday morning. The models continue to look cold and have been trending colder and colder. Also, with such a strong high over the state (1035-1040mb+) I think hard freeze conditions are possible.

Yeah I think this next front will bring a hard freeze to much of the deep south,Mobile NWS is already talking about it.

...HARD FREEZE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY
ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS...

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION LATE SUNDAY...BRINGING A RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF COLD ARCTIC AIR
ALL THE WAY SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST. BY TUESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR A HARD FREEZE OVER SOME INLAND LOCATIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTH ALABAMA. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
20S ARE FORECAST FOR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE INLAND AREAS
NORTH OF A WIGGINS MISSISSIPPI...TO BAY MINETTE ALABAMA...TO
CRESTVIEW FLORIDA LINE.

[double D]

I am getting really concerned about Sunday night/Monday morning. The models continue to look cold and have been trending colder and colder. Also, with such a strong high over the state (1035-1040mb+) I think hard freeze conditions are possible.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _060.shtml
^^18Z NAM for next Sunday night/Monday morning^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _072.shtml
^^12Z GFS for next Sunday night/Monday morning^^

http://weather.unisys.com/ecmwf/ecmwf_500p_4d.gif
^^ECMWF model for next Monday morning^^

At the very least, another night like last night is likely.

Plus throw in the recent snow cover up north and the cool air already in place, I think it is quite possible that it could be as cold or colder than last night.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I hit 27F this morning in NW Houston.

Other cold spots in this general vicinity were:

Tomball = 29F
Conroe = 28F

Looks like most areas north of I-10 saw 20s...except for the normal warmer spots such as IAH and other areas with lots of concrete and/or tree cover. Nearly everyone had a freeze though (and you can tell by looking at how beat up the banana trees are).

Is your thermometer a properly calibrated instrument? Does it have an official certification? Is it placed in a proper spot and at a proper height? I only ask because you are consistently lower that other nearby sites and you have frequently made this point against the NWS.

I really do not think there is that much of a difference between 27F and 28/29F (thus that is not really considerably lower). I am pretty sure it is correct too b/c I checked it against two other thermometers I had outside in different locations, and I doubt they would all just happen to show the same temperature and all be wrong.

The reason I was probably a degree or two colder though is due to my area being in a small cool pocket. I think I am at a slightly lower elevation than surrounding areas and my immediate area only has a few pine trees (and some small trees) so it is somewhat open too (allowing the cold air to sink further down without being blocked by trees). I notice this "cool pocket" effect even more in the car. You can clearly see a 1-3F temperature rise as you leave my area on the coldest, calmest mornings.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Houston afternoon AFD:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
348 PM CST FRI DEC 1 2006

.DISCUSSION...
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN
FOCUS THE FIRST FEW DAYS. THE SOUTHERN JET WAS OVERHEAD AS WELL
AND A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WERE SEEN ON THE OBSERVATIONS AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE. THESE SHOULD HELP KEEP THE MINS UP A BIT TONIGHT.
ANOTHER REINFORCING HIGH WILL SINK DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL SEE A BIT MORE CLOUDS THEN A RETURN TO THE NEAR
FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVER AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN BY MID WEEK AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS BY THURSDAY. KEPT THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AS IS...THE ECMWF AND GFS WERE STILL A BIT APART.

[senorpepr]

I hit 27F this morning in NW Houston.

Other cold spots in this general vicinity were:

Tomball = 29F
Conroe = 28F

Looks like most areas north of I-10 saw 20s...except for the normal warmer spots such as IAH and other areas with lots of concrete and/or tree cover. Nearly everyone had a freeze though (and you can tell by looking at how beat up the banana trees are).

Is your thermometer a properly calibrated instrument? Does it have an official certification? Is it placed in a proper spot and at a proper height? I only ask because you are consistently lower that other nearby sites and you have frequently made this point against the NWS.

I really do not think there is that much of a difference between 27F and 28/29F (thus that is not really considerably lower). I am pretty sure it is correct too b/c I checked it against two other thermometers I had outside in different locations, and I doubt they would all just happen to show the same temperature and all be wrong.

The reason I was probably a degree or two colder though is due to my area being in a small cool pocket. I think I am at a slightly lower elevation than surrounding areas and my immediate area only has a few pine trees (and some small trees) so it is somewhat open too (allowing the cold air to sink further down without being blocked by trees). I notice this "cool pocket" effect even more in the car. You can clearly see a 1-3F temperature rise as you leave my area on the coldest, calmest mornings.

I never said your temperature was considerably lower... I said it was consistently lower. I just remember several times in the past you had blamed the NWS for a bust forecast while you utilized your unofficial (and possibility incorrect) observations against their data. Also, you have have as many thermometers outside as you want... but if they are all in bad places, they will all yield bad results.

As for the cool pocket effect, while that may be the case, I'm not sure if you can use the car's observations either. You also have to factor in temperature contamination (artificial warming from your car heating up). That may be the cause, or at least partial cause, to the temperature going up a few degrees.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I hit 27F this morning in NW Houston.

Other cold spots in this general vicinity were:

Tomball = 29F
Conroe = 28F

Looks like most areas north of I-10 saw 20s...except for the normal warmer spots such as IAH and other areas with lots of concrete and/or tree cover. Nearly everyone had a freeze though (and you can tell by looking at how beat up the banana trees are).

Is your thermometer a properly calibrated instrument? Does it have an official certification? Is it placed in a proper spot and at a proper height? I only ask because you are consistently lower that other nearby sites and you have frequently made this point against the NWS.

I really do not think there is that much of a difference between 27F and 28/29F (thus that is not really considerably lower). I am pretty sure it is correct too b/c I checked it against two other thermometers I had outside in different locations, and I doubt they would all just happen to show the same temperature and all be wrong.

The reason I was probably a degree or two colder though is due to my area being in a small cool pocket. I think I am at a slightly lower elevation than surrounding areas and my immediate area only has a few pine trees (and some small trees) so it is somewhat open too (allowing the cold air to sink further down without being blocked by trees). I notice this "cool pocket" effect even more in the car. You can clearly see a 1-3F temperature rise as you leave my area on the coldest, calmest mornings.

I never said your temperature was considerably lower... I said it was consistently lower. I just remember several times in the past you had blamed the NWS for a bust forecast while you utilized your unofficial (and possibility incorrect) observations against their data. Also, you have have as many thermometers outside as you want... but if they are all in bad places, they will all yield bad results.

As for the cool pocket effect, while that may be the case, I'm not sure if you can use the car's observations either. You also have to factor in temperature contamination (artificial warming from your car heating up). That may be the cause, or at least partial cause, to the temperature going up a few degrees.

Wow, your right you did say consistently not considerably. lol. sorry about that.

As for me saying the NWS had busted for lows, I don't think I have done that so far this season. I may have done that last season once or twice, but this year I have not seen any readings out of the official sites that were more than a couple of degrees off what I have been recording, and their low forecasts have been pretty good in the short term as well this season.

That car temperature contamination idea is also interesting. I had never really thought about that much. May be one day I will have to do a more accurate test to see if the cool pocket theory is really correct. A good way would probably be for me to use the same thermometer at different locations and see if there is a change. One of these days I will probably have to get around to doing that on a morning I have nothing planned.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Now I know this is weather.com and is likely not 100% accurate, but it is interestig to see that they have a forecast high of 49F next Friday for north Houston:

http://www.weather.com/outlook/driving/ ... 9?dayNum=7

[HarlequinBoy]

I've been checking forecasts and AFDs (I can't really read models yet, lol) from around the South and all seem to show continued cold next week and hinting at some precip in the Gulf Coast states.

[double D]

It is amazing that we can go from being in the 30's yesterday in Fredericksburg to 61 today. Talk about a nice recovery.

[aggiecutter]

Thursday-Friday of next week will be the last of several cold shots, then the pattern will relax for the next couple weeks. The long range Ensembles show pressures lowering in Canada past day 7, which is not conducive to Arctic outbreaks. However, I did read above that Joe Bastardi sycophant, Portastorm, just kidding, said that Joe is tauting the return of winter the last the 10 days of the month. I think he said it would return with a vengeance. We'll see what happens. If this truly is a pattern and not an abberation, then winter will indeed return in a couple weeks.