Severe Wx Event Nov. 29 - Dec. 1, Southern and Eastern CONUS

[brunota2003]

Based on model data, I'm inclined to believe tomorrow could be quite a nice dryline event across N central Texas into south central OK. Wednesday's threat looks more marginal due to weak lapse rates, resulting in terrible instability.

Will change the title Nov. 28-30 to reflect SPC adding a thraat area in their 4-8 day outlook across the Carolinas.

It should be through Dec. 1 across the mid-Atlantic.

Us mid-Atlantic people dont count... we arent suppose to see any severe wx here until Dec 1 according to forecast/SPC outlook...hopefully nothing like the last mini-outbreak here...

[wxmann_91]

Based on model data, I'm inclined to believe tomorrow could be quite a nice dryline event across N central Texas into south central OK. Wednesday's threat looks more marginal due to weak lapse rates, resulting in terrible instability.

Will change the title Nov. 28-30 to reflect SPC adding a thraat area in their 4-8 day outlook across the Carolinas.

It should be through Dec. 1 across the mid-Atlantic.

Thanks for letting me know; I edited the title.

[HarlequinBoy]

Latest Day 2 Conv. Outlook

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 PM CST TUE NOV 28 2006

VALID 301200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE S-CNTRL OH VALLEY SWD
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND CNTRL GULF COAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

INTENSIFICATION OF SRN STREAM TROUGH IS FORECAST DURING THE DAY TWO
PERIOD AS IT TRANSLATES EWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS...PRIOR TO
BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AND EJECTING MORE NEWD INTO THE MID MS
AND LOWER OH VALLEYS BY FRIDAY MORNING. AN ACCOMPANYING BELT OF
STRONG /80-100 KT AT 500 MB/ MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH
THE TROUGH BASE...SPREADING THROUGH THE ARKLATEX...MID SOUTH AND
LOWER MS VALLEY REGIONS.

IN THE LOW-LEVELS...COLD FRONT INITIALLY EXTENDING FROM CNTRL LOWER
MI SWWD INTO SERN TX WILL RAPIDLY PUSH SEWD/EWD WITH SECONDARY
CYCLOGENESIS FORECAST OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY THURSDAY.
DIFFERENCES EXIST IN LATEST SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE WITH REGARD
TO THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE...BUT IN GENERAL IT IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEWD ALONG COLD FRONT INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY
BY FRIDAY MORNING.

...S-CNTRL OH VALLEY SWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND CNTRL GULF
COAST...

LARGE-SCALE PATTERN CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOW
INSTABILITY - HIGH SHEAR SERIAL-TYPE WIND EVENT ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

29/00Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS...CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND GOES
SOUNDER PW LOOP ALL INDICATE A FAIRLY RAPID RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE THROUGH THE SABINE AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEYS NWD INTO THE
MID SOUTH AND WRN TN VALLEY WITH 60F DEWPOINTS TO LIT AND THE MS
DELTA. SWLY LLJ WILL BE MAINTAINED AHEAD OF EVOLVING UPPER
SYSTEM...TRANSPORTING AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER NWD WITH
60F DEWPOINTS INTO KY...AND MID/UPPER 60S INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY /MUCAPES OF 200-600 J PER KG/ AHEAD OF
SURFACE FRONT THURSDAY...LARGELY DUE TO WEAK LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES.

DESPITE THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...INCREASED LARGE-SCALE
FORCING...SLAB ASCENT ALONG COLD FRONT AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ALL
SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO THE INTENSIFICATION OF A LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE
LINE BY AFTERNOON FROM THE CONFLUENCE OF THE MS/OH RIVERS SWWD INTO
ERN AR AND CNTRL LA. PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE IS EXPECTED TO BE
LINEAR WITH EMBEDDED LEWP/BOW STRUCTURES. THE STRENGTH OF THE
AMBIENT WIND FIELDS WILL SUPPORT STORM MOTIONS OF 45-50+KT WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR CORRIDORS OF WIND DAMAGE.

LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...BOTH EMBEDDED IN LINE
OR FORMING IN MORE DISCRETE FASHION AHEAD OF PRIMARY CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM. GIVEN THE LOW LCL HEIGHTS AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...THE
THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL EXIST. THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE
CASE INVOF DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR/FORCING
WILL BE LOCALLY MORE INTENSE.

THIS CONVECTIVE LINE WILL RAPIDLY SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE SRN OH AND
TN VALLEYS...AS WELL AS THE CNTRL GULF COAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
CONTINUING THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES.

[CajunMama]

Lake Charles nws had me snickering this morning. Most of the time they are so cut and dry with their forecast discussion. They use lots of technical terms and abbreviations these days. At least they're finally mentioning the front...oh wait! didn't i previously post that they'll wait until wednesday to mention the front?

BEHIND THE FNT NRLY WINDS WILL SCREAM ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND INTO THE EVE HOURS W/ LAKE WIND ADVY CRITERIA LIKELY MET OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO DROP LIKE A ROCK W/ STRONG CAA EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE
FNT.

[CrazyC83]

SEL9

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 869
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CST WED NOV 29 2006

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
PARTS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1230 PM UNTIL
700 PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
MUSKOGEE OKLAHOMA TO 35 MILES SOUTH OF MINERAL WELLS TEXAS. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF ARCTIC FRONT HAS BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH LITTLE REMAINING CIN. STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR COUPLED WITH INSTABILITY SUPPORTS DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF ARCTIC FRONT. ALONG WITH LARGE
HAIL AND LOCAL DAMAGING WINDS TORNADOS WILL BE POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED
WITH ANY SUPERCELL.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23035.


...HALES


SEL9

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 869
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CST WED NOV 29 2006

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
PARTS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1230 PM UNTIL
700 PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
MUSKOGEE OKLAHOMA TO 35 MILES SOUTH OF MINERAL WELLS TEXAS. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF ARCTIC FRONT HAS BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH LITTLE REMAINING CIN. STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR COUPLED WITH INSTABILITY SUPPORTS DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF ARCTIC FRONT. ALONG WITH LARGE
HAIL AND LOCAL DAMAGING WINDS TORNADOS WILL BE POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED
WITH ANY SUPERCELL.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23035.


...HALES


Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.

WOUS64 KWNS 291826
WOU9

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 869
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CST WED NOV 29 2006

TORNADO WATCH 869 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

ARC033-131-143-300100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0869.061129T1830Z-061130T0100Z/

AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CRAWFORD SEBASTIAN WASHINGTON


OKC001-005-013-019-021-023-029-061-063-067-069-077-079-085-091-
095-099-101-121-123-127-133-135-300100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0869.061129T1830Z-061130T0100Z/

OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAIR ATOKA BRYAN
CARTER CHEROKEE CHOCTAW
COAL HASKELL HUGHES
JEFFERSON JOHNSTON LATIMER
LE FLORE LOVE MARSHALL
MCINTOSH MURRAY MUSKOGEE
PITTSBURG PONTOTOC PUSHMATAHA
SEMINOLE SEQUOYAH


TXC077-085-097-113-121-133-139-143-147-181-221-231-237-251-257-
337-363-367-397-425-429-439-497-503-300100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0869.061129T1830Z-061130T0100Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CLAY COLLIN COOKE
DALLAS DENTON EASTLAND
ELLIS ERATH FANNIN
GRAYSON HOOD HUNT
JACK JOHNSON KAUFMAN
MONTAGUE PALO PINTO PARKER
ROCKWALL SOMERVELL STEPHENS
TARRANT WISE YOUNG


ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...





Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.

SAW9
WW 869 TORNADO AR OK TX 291830Z - 300100Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
40ENE MKO/MUSKOGEE OK/ - 35S MWL/MINERAL WELLS TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM E/W /36SW RZC - 55NW ACT/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23035.

LAT...LON 35889345 32279687 32279926 35889595

THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU9.


Watch 869 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.

[CrazyC83]

Even up here, dramatic drops are expected. Supposed to be 60 tomorrow morning (really warm for here in late November, although not a record) - and drop to 15 by overnight.

[CrazyC83]

Looking at everything, I think that a tornado outbreak is unlikely at this point. However a rare late fall derecho seems very possible...

[CrazyC83]

Moderate Risk for much of the Northeast. Derecho the main threat.

SPC AC 011629

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1029 AM CST FRI DEC 01 2006

VALID 011630Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS INTO PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC
AND NEW ENGLAND...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE PIEDMONT INTO THE
NORTHEAST...

...PIEDMONT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST...
PAIR OF SURFACE LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AHEAD OF INTENSE
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW SPREADING TOWARDS ONTARIO. LEADING LOW
CONTINUES ALONG EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT/WARM FRONT NOW NEAR LAKE ERIE.
INTENSE PRESSURE FALLS ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF THIS LOW...AND MORNING
MODELS FORECAST THE LOW TO DEEPEN AND LIFT INTO NERN NY BY THE EARLY
EVENING. THIS WILL SURGE LEADING COLD FRONT EWD ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS AND EXTEND FROM ERN NY SSWWD ACROSS WRN NJ AND THE
CHESAPEAKE REGION BY 00Z...AND OFF THE COAST BY MIDNIGHT.
ACCOMPANYING WARM FRONT...NOW WELL DEFINED ACROSS FAR SWRN NY INTO
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND...WILL LIFT QUICKLY NWD INTO SWRN/CENTRAL NY AND
EVENTUALLY ACROSS ALL BUT NRN NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS EVENING.

NARROW LINE OF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION HAS STEADILY INCREASED AND
BECOME MORE ORGANIZED INTO FAR WRN PA ND NERN WV THIS MORNING.
DESPITE THE LIMITED LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY...INTENSE
DEEP ASCENT WILL FORCE A NARROW LINE OF INTENSE
CONVECTION/THUNDERSTORMS EWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
INTO THE URBAN CORRIDOR FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL/ERN VA INTO THE HUDSON
VALLEY/NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL LIKELY STEADILY
INCREASE...AS WILL THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS. VWP DATA FROM
KCCX AND KPBZ AHEAD OF THE LINE INDICATE EXTREME WINDS /I.E. 50-60
KT SLYS/ JUST OFF THE SURFACE...WITH RESULTANT VERY LARGE
HODOGRAPHS. THUS IT APPEARS WIND DAMAGE MAY BECOME QUITE
PRONOUNCED/WIDESPREAD INTO THE MID AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE WELL INTO
THE EARLY EVENING FROM PORTIONS OF CENTRAL PA/NRN MD INTO SWRN NEW
ENGLAND/SERN NY. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND
RELATIVELY HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER RH ...ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL
ACCOMPANY QUASI-LINEAR OR MORE DISCRETE STORMS. SEVERE THREAT WILL
BECOME MORE CONDITIONAL FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT /SOUTH OF THE
DELMARVA REGION/ DUE TO RELATIVELY WEAKER ASCENT. HOWEVER...VERY
IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES AND VERY WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY
TORNADOES.

..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 12/01/2006

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1637Z (11:37AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[CrazyC83]

SEL5

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 875
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 AM EST FRI DEC 1 2006

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN INTO PART OF CENTRAL NEW YORK
NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1155 AM UNTIL 700
PM EST.

HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 90 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF WILLIAMSPORT PENNSYLVANIA TO 40 MILES NORTH OF
MONTICELLO NEW YORK. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 874...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INCREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS WW THIS AFTERNOON...DESPITE MEAGER INSTABILITY...AS VERY
STRONG COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW LIFT NEWD. ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
WILL LIKEWISE SURGE NWD AND BOOST SURFACE TEMPERATURES/DEW POINTS
10+F DEGREES AS COMPARED TO THIS MORNING IT LIFTS INTO CENTRAL NY
THROUGH THE DAY. WITHIN WARM SECTOR...EXTREME WIND FIELDS JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL INCREASE DAMAGING WIND RISK WITH THIS
ACTIVITY.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26040.


...EVANS


SEL5

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 875
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 AM EST FRI DEC 1 2006

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN INTO PART OF CENTRAL NEW YORK
NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1155 AM UNTIL 700
PM EST.

HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 90 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF WILLIAMSPORT PENNSYLVANIA TO 40 MILES NORTH OF
MONTICELLO NEW YORK. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 874...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INCREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS WW THIS AFTERNOON...DESPITE MEAGER INSTABILITY...AS VERY
STRONG COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW LIFT NEWD. ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
WILL LIKEWISE SURGE NWD AND BOOST SURFACE TEMPERATURES/DEW POINTS
10+F DEGREES AS COMPARED TO THIS MORNING IT LIFTS INTO CENTRAL NY
THROUGH THE DAY. WITHIN WARM SECTOR...EXTREME WIND FIELDS JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL INCREASE DAMAGING WIND RISK WITH THIS
ACTIVITY.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26040.


...EVANS


Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.

WOUS64 KWNS 011649
WOU5

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 875
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 AM EST FRI DEC 1 2006

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 875 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EST
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

NYC003-007-009-011-015-017-023-025-051-053-065-067-069-077-097-
099-101-105-107-109-121-123-020000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0875.061201T1655Z-061202T0000Z/

NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALLEGANY BROOME CATTARAUGUS
CAYUGA CHEMUNG CHENANGO
CORTLAND DELAWARE LIVINGSTON
MADISON ONEIDA ONONDAGA
ONTARIO OTSEGO SCHUYLER
SENECA STEUBEN SULLIVAN
TIOGA TOMPKINS WYOMING
YATES


PAC015-069-079-103-115-127-131-020000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0875.061201T1655Z-061202T0000Z/

PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BRADFORD LACKAWANNA LUZERNE
PIKE SUSQUEHANNA WAYNE
WYOMING


ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...





Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.

SAW5
WW 875 SEVERE TSTM NY PA 011655Z - 020000Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
90WNW IPT/WILLIAMSPORT PA/ - 40N MSV/MONTICELLO NY/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /29WNW SLT - 27ENE HNK/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..0.5 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26040.

LAT...LON 42617852 43157480 41407480 40867852

THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU5.


Watch 875 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.

[tomboudreau]

Umm...you forgot about the other watch that is covering almost the rest of PA.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 874
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1005 AM EST FRI DEC 1 2006

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MARYLAND
FAR EASTERN OHIO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
NORTHERN VIRGINIA
FAR NORTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA INCLUDING THE PANHANDLE
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1005 AM UNTIL 600
PM EST.

HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 110
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES EAST
SOUTHEAST OF ELKINS WEST VIRGINIA TO 50 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
BRADFORD PENNSYLVANIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 873...

DISCUSSION...INTENSE SYSTEM NOW APPROACHING THE NORTHEASTERN STATES
WILL SUPPORT EXTREME LOW AND DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS/SHEAR ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE LIMITED...DESPITE THE
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST AIR AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED STRONG SURFACE
COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...NARROW LINE OF MOIST CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS WATCH TODAY AND SUPPORT
AN INCREASED RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS WITH STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND DOWNWARD MIXING PROCESSES. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING MAY
REMAIN LIMITED WITH THIS LINE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...THOUGH THIS
SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS MARGINAL
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26040.


...EVANS


SEL4

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 874
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1005 AM EST FRI DEC 1 2006

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MARYLAND
FAR EASTERN OHIO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
NORTHERN VIRGINIA
FAR NORTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA INCLUDING THE PANHANDLE
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1005 AM UNTIL 600
PM EST.

HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 110
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES EAST
SOUTHEAST OF ELKINS WEST VIRGINIA TO 50 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
BRADFORD PENNSYLVANIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 873...

DISCUSSION...INTENSE SYSTEM NOW APPROACHING THE NORTHEASTERN STATES
WILL SUPPORT EXTREME LOW AND DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS/SHEAR ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE LIMITED...DESPITE THE
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST AIR AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED STRONG SURFACE
COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...NARROW LINE OF MOIST CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS WATCH TODAY AND SUPPORT
AN INCREASED RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS WITH STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND DOWNWARD MIXING PROCESSES. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING MAY
REMAIN LIMITED WITH THIS LINE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...THOUGH THIS
SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS MARGINAL
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26040.


...EVANS


Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.

WOUS64 KWNS 011502
WOU4

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 874
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1005 AM EST FRI DEC 1 2006

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 874 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EST
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

DCC001-012300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0874.061201T1505Z-061201T2300Z/

DC
. DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA


MDC001-003-005-013-017-021-023-025-027-031-033-043-510-012300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0874.061201T1505Z-061201T2300Z/

MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALLEGANY ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE
CARROLL CHARLES FREDERICK
GARRETT HARFORD HOWARD
MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES WASHINGTON


MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE

BALTIMORE CITY


OHC029-081-012300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0874.061201T1505Z-061201T2300Z/

OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

COLUMBIANA JEFFERSON


PAC001-003-005-007-009-013-019-021-023-027-031-033-035-037-041-
043-047-051-053-055-057-059-061-063-065-067-071-073-075-081-083-
085-087-093-097-099-105-107-109-111-113-117-119-121-123-125-129-
133-012300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0874.061201T1505Z-061201T2300Z/

PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAMS ALLEGHENY ARMSTRONG
BEAVER BEDFORD BLAIR
BUTLER CAMBRIA CAMERON
CENTRE CLARION CLEARFIELD
CLINTON COLUMBIA CUMBERLAND
DAUPHIN ELK FAYETTE
FOREST FRANKLIN FULTON
GREENE HUNTINGDON INDIANA
JEFFERSON JUNIATA LANCASTER
LAWRENCE LEBANON LYCOMING
MCKEAN MERCER MIFFLIN
MONTOUR NORTHUMBERLAND PERRY
POTTER SCHUYLKILL SNYDER
SOMERSET SULLIVAN TIOGA
UNION VENANGO WARREN
WASHINGTON WESTMORELAND YORK


VAC013-043-047-059-061-069-107-113-139-153-157-165-171-179-187-
510-600-660-683-685-840-012300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0874.061201T1505Z-061201T2300Z/

VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ARLINGTON CLARKE CULPEPER
FAIRFAX FAUQUIER FREDERICK
LOUDOUN MADISON PAGE
PRINCE WILLIAM RAPPAHANNOCK ROCKINGHAM
SHENANDOAH STAFFORD WARREN




VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE

ALEXANDRIA FAIRFAX HARRISONBURG
MANASSAS MANASSAS PARK WINCHESTER


WVC003-009-023-027-029-031-037-049-051-057-061-065-069-071-077-
093-103-012300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0874.061201T1505Z-061201T2300Z/

WV
. WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BERKELEY BROOKE GRANT
HAMPSHIRE HANCOCK HARDY
JEFFERSON MARION MARSHALL
MINERAL MONONGALIA MORGAN
OHIO PENDLETON PRESTON
TUCKER WETZEL


ANZ530-531-532-535-536-012300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0874.061201T1505Z-061201T2300Z/

CW

. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD

CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD

CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD

TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD

TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD

ATTN...WFO...LWX...PBZ...CTP...





Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.

SAW4
WW 874 SEVERE TSTM DC MD OH PA VA WV CW 011505Z - 012300Z
AXIS..110 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
55ESE EKN/ELKINS WV/ - 50ENE BFD/BRADFORD PA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 95NM E/W /48W CSN - 36NNE SLT/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..0.5 INCH. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26040.

LAT...LON 38548094 42047987 42047558 38547686

THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU4.


Watch 874 Status Report Messages:

STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 874

VALID 011645Z - 011740Z

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E PKB TO
30 ESE HLG TO 25 S FKL TO 10 WSW JHW.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2261.

..EDWARDS..12/01/06

ATTN...WFO...LWX...PBZ...CTP...

&&

STATUS REPORT FOR WS 874

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

DCC001-011740-

DC
. DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
$$


MDC001-003-005-013-017-021-023-025-027-031-033-043-510-011740-

MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALLEGANY ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE
CARROLL CHARLES FREDERICK
GARRETT HARFORD HOWARD
MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES WASHINGTON




MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE

BALTIMORE CITY
$$


PAC001-003-005-009-013-019-021-023-027-031-033-035-037-041-043-
047-051-053-055-057-059-061-063-065-067-071-075-081-083-087-093-
097-099-105-107-109-111-113-117-119-121-123-125-129-133-
011740-

PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAMS ALLEGHENY ARMSTRONG
BEDFORD BLAIR BUTLER
CAMBRIA CAMERON CENTRE
CLARION CLEARFIELD CLINTON
COLUMBIA CUMBERLAND DAUPHIN
ELK FAYETTE FOREST
FRANKLIN FULTON GREENE
HUNTINGDON INDIANA JEFFERSON
JUNIATA LANCASTER LEBANON
LYCOMING MCKEAN MIFFLIN
MONTOUR NORTHUMBERLAND PERRY
POTTER SCHUYLKILL SNYDER
SOMERSET SULLIVAN TIOGA
UNION VENANGO WARREN
WASHINGTON WESTMORELAND YORK
$$


VAC013-043-047-059-061-069-107-113-139-153-157-165-171-179-187-
510-600-610-660-683-685-840-011740-

VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ARLINGTON CLARKE CULPEPER
FAIRFAX FAUQUIER FREDERICK
LOUDOUN MADISON PAGE
PRINCE WILLIAM RAPPAHANNOCK ROCKINGHAM
SHENANDOAH STAFFORD WARREN




VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE

ALEXANDRIA FAIRFAX FALLS CHURCH
HARRISONBURG MANASSAS MANASSAS PARK
WINCHESTER
$$


WVC003-023-027-031-037-049-057-061-065-071-077-093-011740-

WV
. WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BERKELEY GRANT HAMPSHIRE
HARDY JEFFERSON MARION
MINERAL MONONGALIA MORGAN
PENDLETON PRESTON TUCKER
$$


ANZ530-531-532-535-536-011740-

CW

. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD

CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD

CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD

TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD

TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD

$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$



Please visit the National Weather Service Interactive Weather Information Network (IWIN) for more information on the warnings.

Note: Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
Low (20%)


Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
Low (5%)


Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
High (80%)


Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
Mod (40%)


Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
Low (10%)


Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
Low (<5%)


Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
High (90%)



For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch (listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster. The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2% to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities), "Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%. High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of an increased threat for a particular event.



Go to md2261 discussion

There have been 2 tornado warnings within this watch box also....one in Westmoreland County and the other in Indiana County in West Central PA.

[CrazyC83]

Yeah that one was older...

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2263
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CST FRI DEC 01 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN/ERN VA...EXTREME SERN MD...ERN
NC...NERN SC.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 011729Z - 011930Z

CONVECTION MAY STRENGTHEN THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ALONG PREFRONTAL
CONVERGENCE BAND -- EVIDENT AS OF 1715Z FROM ABOUT 50 SW RIC TO 20
NW SAV. MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING GUSTS. ALSO...LINE OF SVR
CONVECTION CLOSER TO COLD FRONT...AND NOW IN WWS 874-875 MAY
BACKBUILD SWD AND AFFECT PORTIONS CENTRAL VA.

AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS COASTAL PLAIN AND
TIDEWATER REGION FROM MD TO ERN NC...PERHAPS INTO PORTIONS NERN SC.
SFC DIABATIC HEATING AND DEW POINTS MID 60S TO NEAR 70 F WILL
COUNTERACT WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ENOUGH TO RAISE MLCAPES TO 500
J/KG...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG. VERTICAL WIND PROFILES WILL BE
NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL...BUT WITH VERY STRONG SPEED SHEAR...AS
TIGHTEST GRADIENT FLOW ALOFT PASSES OVER REGION SE OF EJECTING
MID-UPPER LOW OVER GREAT LAKES REGION. 30-40 KT OF 0-1 KM VECTOR
SHEAR IS EVIDENT OVER NC/VA PORTION OF DISCUSSION AREA...BASED ON
VWP AND RUC SOUNDINGS. SVR PROBABILITIES DIMINISH WITH SWD EXTENT
THROUGH SC BECAUSE OF WEAKER CONVERGENCE...AND BECAUSE OF EXPECTED
VEERING TREND IN PRE-STORM BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW RELATED TO
ISALLOBARIC FORCING.

..EDWARDS.. 12/01/2006


ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...

33577990 36657842 37877831 38367760 38447500 37897531
37107588 36917598 36057566 35677545 35197550 35117592
34557652 34707680 34567722 34227777 33827794 33867854
33507903 33107922

[CrazyC83]

1730 UNK GREENSBURG WESTMORELAND PA 4031 7954 STRUCTURAL DAMAGE. (PBZ)

Sounds like it is getting serious...

[CrazyC83]

http://www.thepittsburghchannel.com/new ... etail.html

More on the damage in Greensburg.

[Mesohunter]

I'm in Petersburg WV

Partly cloudy, gusts have been around 50-60+

[CrazyC83]

Live derecho coverage from Syracuse - http://www.9wsyr.com/mediacenter/?videoid=60980 WSYR-TV

[CrazyC83]

This meteorologist on there seems REALLY confused...

[CrazyC83]

SEL6

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 876
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
320 PM EST FRI DEC 1 2006

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT
FAR WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS
NORTHERN AND PART OF CENTRAL NEW JERSEY
EASTERN NEW YORK
SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
FAR SOUTHERN VERMONT

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 320 PM UNTIL
1000 PM EST.

HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF
GLENS FALLS NEW YORK TO 20 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF PHILADELPHIA
PENNSYLVANIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 874...WW 875...

DISCUSSION...SURFACE LOW DEEPENING INTO THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
THIS EVENING SHOULD ALLOW WARM FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT WARM/MOIST AIR
MASS TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF ERN NY AND POINTS SOUTH THIS EVENING.
VERY STRONG LOW SHEAR AND INTENSE DEEP ASCENT WILL COMPENSATE FOR
MEAGER INSTABILITY AND MAINTAIN A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS WITH
MOIST CONVECTION ALONG APPROACHING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID
EVENING.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26035.


...EVANS


SEL6

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 876
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
320 PM EST FRI DEC 1 2006

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT
FAR WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS
NORTHERN AND PART OF CENTRAL NEW JERSEY
EASTERN NEW YORK
SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
FAR SOUTHERN VERMONT

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 320 PM UNTIL
1000 PM EST.

HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF
GLENS FALLS NEW YORK TO 20 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF PHILADELPHIA
PENNSYLVANIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 874...WW 875...

DISCUSSION...SURFACE LOW DEEPENING INTO THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
THIS EVENING SHOULD ALLOW WARM FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT WARM/MOIST AIR
MASS TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF ERN NY AND POINTS SOUTH THIS EVENING.
VERY STRONG LOW SHEAR AND INTENSE DEEP ASCENT WILL COMPENSATE FOR
MEAGER INSTABILITY AND MAINTAIN A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS WITH
MOIST CONVECTION ALONG APPROACHING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID
EVENING.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26035.


...EVANS


Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.

WOUS64 KWNS 012017
WOU6

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 876
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
320 PM EST FRI DEC 1 2006

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 876 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EST
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

CTC005-020300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0876.061201T2020Z-061202T0300Z/

CT
. CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

LITCHFIELD


MAC003-020300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0876.061201T2020Z-061202T0300Z/

MA
. MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BERKSHIRE


NJC003-005-007-013-015-019-021-023-027-031-035-037-039-041-
020300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0876.061201T2020Z-061202T0300Z/

NJ
. NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BERGEN BURLINGTON CAMDEN
ESSEX GLOUCESTER HUNTERDON
MERCER MIDDLESEX MORRIS
PASSAIC SOMERSET SUSSEX
UNION WARREN


NYC001-021-027-035-039-041-043-057-071-079-083-087-091-093-095-
111-113-115-119-020300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0876.061201T2020Z-061202T0300Z/

NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALBANY COLUMBIA DUTCHESS
FULTON GREENE HAMILTON
HERKIMER MONTGOMERY ORANGE
PUTNAM RENSSELAER ROCKLAND
SARATOGA SCHENECTADY SCHOHARIE
ULSTER WARREN WASHINGTON
WESTCHESTER


PAC011-017-025-029-045-077-089-091-095-101-020300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0876.061201T2020Z-061202T0300Z/

PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BERKS BUCKS CARBON
CHESTER DELAWARE LEHIGH
MONROE MONTGOMERY NORTHAMPTON
PHILADELPHIA


VTC003-025-020300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0876.061201T2020Z-061202T0300Z/

VT
. VERMONT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BENNINGTON WINDHAM


ATTN...WFO...ALY...PHI...OKX...





Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.

SAW6
WW 876 SEVERE TSTM CT MA NJ NY PA VT 012020Z - 020300Z
AXIS..50 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
10NW GFL/GLENS FALLS NY/ - 20WSW PHL/PHILADELPHIA PA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 45NM E/W /41N ALB - 50S ETX/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..0.5 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26035.

LAT...LON 43437276 39747466 39747654 43437476

THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU6.


Watch 876 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.

[milfordmawx]

Quite the line of storms in Central NY right now:
KENX Level 3 Radar
Lightning Map

[CrazyC83]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
507 PM EST FRI DEC 1 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN MONROE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 545 PM EST

* AT 503 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 6 MILES
NORTHWEST OF POCONO PINES...OR ABOUT 17 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
SCRANTON...MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

* THE TORNADO IS WILL BE NEAR...
MOUNTAINHOME BY 515 PM EST...

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. THIS
STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES. IF YOU ARE
IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO...TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY!

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EST
FRIDAY EVENING FOR NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

LAT...LON 4115 7568 4107 7557 4115 7511 4126 7512
4125 7554

$$

NIERENBERG