Texas winter weather thread - Cold snap next week

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Extremeweatherguy
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#361 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Wed Nov 29, 2006 4:05 pm

What makes me mad is the fact that Lake Charles writes our forecast discussion and then doesn't change this morning's forecast for the extended AT ALL (the forecast numbers this afternoon are the same from this morning), then they go back and significantly drop temps. for the Beaumont area a whole lot (while all the while keeping us much warmer). Now this weekend there is a forecast difference of 10-20F between here and Beaumont.

Make Sense? NO! :roll: :lol:

The worst part is now TV news stations tonight are going to show the same wrong forecast from this morning. I am sure everyone in Houston will now be thinking the weekend will be beautiful in the 60s (when in fact it may be well into the 40s).
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#362 Postby jasons2k » Wed Nov 29, 2006 4:09 pm

Maybe they are PO'd at us for questioning their resoning so much?? Just kidding. That is a little odd. I've never quite read one like that. I understand it but WOW. Also the forecaster used "blue northers" to describe the north wind gusts, which isn't what a blue norther is - it refers to the actual front itself. I've never seen "blue northers" plural before.

He/she must not be from 'round these parts ;-)

As for why it's from LCH, in the past it has been usually due to a software problem where they can't issue; an adjacent office needs to for them.
Last edited by jasons2k on Wed Nov 29, 2006 4:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#363 Postby Janie2006 » Wed Nov 29, 2006 4:09 pm

They must have gotten 'hold of the special stash.
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#364 Postby CaptinCrunch » Wed Nov 29, 2006 4:13 pm

AggieSpirit wrote:Johnny,

NWS Ft. Worth has NOT upgraded to Winter Storm Warning for DFW (Dallas and Tarrant counties) yet. Denton County and other Northern Sections are however under a Winter Storm Warning.

I think it's very strange to see a Winter Storm Warning and Tornado Watch over the same areas!


Arctic front is expected into the D/FW area by 5pm at current speed. Main storm system is still gathering strenght over SW CO. and current track takes it futher south into NW Texas, temps should be at or just above freezing by 11pm here in Ft Worth with the bulk of the precip still to come. Would expect NWS to extend the WSWarning to the south of Dallas and Tarrant Co's with WSWatch to the south and east.
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#365 Postby jasons2k » Wed Nov 29, 2006 4:14 pm

Downtown Ardmore, which was 79F less than an hour ago is now down to 46F.

Bridgeport JUST dropped from 79F to 55F.
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#366 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Wed Nov 29, 2006 4:16 pm

jschlitz wrote:Maybe they are PO'd at us for questioning their resoning so much?? Just kidding. That is a little odd. I've never quite read one like that. I understand it but WOW. Also the forecaster used "blue northers" to describe the north wind gusts, which isn't what a blue norther is - it refers to the actual front itself. I've never seen "blue northers" plural before.

He/she must not be from 'round these parts ;-)

As for why it's from LCH, in the past it has been usually due to a software problem where they can't issue; an adjacent office needs to for them.
what really bothers me is that fact that the LCH office forecasts Beaumont at 52F on Friday behind the front and then they put Houston at 59F. Does that make sense? Why would Beaumont be so much colder than Houston behind the front with both places under sunny skies? Also, why is Beaumont forecasting MID 40S next Monday while they decided to put Houston near 60F for highs? That also makes no sense..right?

Were they not allowed to change what Houston had forecast this morning? Or did they just decide to keep our forecast the same while dropping theirs a ton? It makes no sense at all..
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#367 Postby jasons2k » Wed Nov 29, 2006 4:18 pm

If you look at the string of dots bisecting Wise county - that is the front now showing up on the radar. It is almost to Decatur now:

Image

Edit: changed to Decatur. Sorry Haven't lived in DFW in over a year and my geography is a bit rusty......
Last edited by jasons2k on Wed Nov 29, 2006 4:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#368 Postby CaptinCrunch » Wed Nov 29, 2006 4:20 pm

Arctic front extends from Abilene (54) to Jacksboro(55) to Bowie(54) at present. D/FW (79)
Last edited by CaptinCrunch on Wed Nov 29, 2006 4:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#369 Postby jasons2k » Wed Nov 29, 2006 4:21 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:what really bothers me is that fact that the LCH office forecasts Beaumont at 52F on Friday behind the front and then they put Houston at 59F. Does that make sense? Why would Beaumont be so much colder than Houston behind the front with both places under sunny skies? Also, why is Beaumont forecasting MID 40S next Monday while they decided to put Houston near 60F for highs? That also makes no sense..right?

Were they not allowed to change what Houston had forecast this morning? Or did they just decide to keep our forecast the same while dropping theirs a ton? It makes no sense at all..


I'm not sure, but maybe the forecasts are out-of-sync? maybe ours isn't update yet? Who knows...
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#370 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Wed Nov 29, 2006 4:22 pm

CaptinCrunch wrote:Arctic front extends from Abilene (54) to Jacksboro(55) to Bowie(54) at present. D/FW (79)
these 20-30F one hour temperature drops are pretty amazing.
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#371 Postby wall_cloud » Wed Nov 29, 2006 4:22 pm

we just spread our snow advisory across the entire panhandle. that's more than 1 inch, but less than 4. could see some heavier pockets, but pinpointing that will be tough!
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#372 Postby jasons2k » Wed Nov 29, 2006 4:23 pm

CaptinCrunch wrote:Arctic front extends from Abilene (54) to Jacksboro(55) to Bowie(54) at present. D/FW (79)


It's more like Abilene to Decatur to Gainesville - it has already cleared Bridgeport and Ardmore - I expect the obs out of Decatur to drop any minute.
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#373 Postby Tireman4 » Wed Nov 29, 2006 4:24 pm

Remember (not to bag on the HGX-NWS) in 2004 when ( I think I am correct) they blew the forecast on December 24. My parents saw 8 inches of snow on Christmas. The point is that they have had completely busted forecasts before. Did not the D-FW NWS not even mention snow or ice earlier this week?
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#374 Postby double D » Wed Nov 29, 2006 4:24 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
jschlitz wrote:Maybe they are PO'd at us for questioning their resoning so much?? Just kidding. That is a little odd. I've never quite read one like that. I understand it but WOW. Also the forecaster used "blue northers" to describe the north wind gusts, which isn't what a blue norther is - it refers to the actual front itself. I've never seen "blue northers" plural before.

He/she must not be from 'round these parts ;-)

As for why it's from LCH, in the past it has been usually due to a software problem where they can't issue; an adjacent office needs to for them.
what really bothers me is that fact that the LCH office forecasts Beaumont at 52F on Friday behind the front and then they put Houston at 59F. Does that make sense? Why would Beaumont be so much colder than Houston behind the front with both places under sunny skies? Also, why is Beaumont forecasting MID 40S next Monday while they decided to put Houston near 60F for highs? That also makes no sense..right?

Were they not allowed to change what Houston had forecast this morning? Or did they just decide to keep our forecast the same while dropping theirs a ton? It makes no sense at all..


I think sometimes the software they use to write discussions have techincal difficulties and they ask adjacent Lake Charles NWS to assist them in the discussion. If I'm not mistaken it has also happened to Austin/San Antonio NWS and Forth Worth NWS had to fill in.
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#375 Postby wall_cloud » Wed Nov 29, 2006 4:27 pm

Tireman4 wrote:Remember (not to bag on the HGX-NWS) in 2004 when ( I think I am correct) they blew the forecast on December 24. My parents saw 8 inches of snow on Christmas. The point is that they have had completely busted forecasts before. Did not the D-FW NWS not even mention snow or ice earlier this week?


that was a hundred year storm. I wouldn't fault anyone on that. not one TX office was able to nail that one.
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#376 Postby gboudx » Wed Nov 29, 2006 4:28 pm

jschlitz wrote:
CaptinCrunch wrote:Arctic front extends from Abilene (54) to Jacksboro(55) to Bowie(54) at present. D/FW (79)


It's more like Abilene to Decatur to Gainesville - it has already cleared Bridgeport and Ardmore - I expect the obs out of Decatur to drop any minute.



According to Weatherbug, Bridgeport is at 55, Decatur at 75. About a 13 mile difference. I'm gonna keep watching the Decatur Weatherbug to see when the front passes.
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#377 Postby Tireman4 » Wed Nov 29, 2006 4:28 pm

Wall Cloud,

Could it be that the mixed bag of moisture will completely fool many NWS stations? Could this be a significant icing event even as far south as College Station? The reason why I ask is that the ice/sleet/snow lines seem to making its way south as time wears on. I know that WXman and others have commented on how models do not handle cold weather well. I am no expert and I have nary a clue as to the why's and whatnot. Any amateur meterologists can answer too. Thanks
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#378 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Wed Nov 29, 2006 4:29 pm

double D wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:
jschlitz wrote:Maybe they are PO'd at us for questioning their resoning so much?? Just kidding. That is a little odd. I've never quite read one like that. I understand it but WOW. Also the forecaster used "blue northers" to describe the north wind gusts, which isn't what a blue norther is - it refers to the actual front itself. I've never seen "blue northers" plural before.

He/she must not be from 'round these parts ;-)

As for why it's from LCH, in the past it has been usually due to a software problem where they can't issue; an adjacent office needs to for them.
what really bothers me is that fact that the LCH office forecasts Beaumont at 52F on Friday behind the front and then they put Houston at 59F. Does that make sense? Why would Beaumont be so much colder than Houston behind the front with both places under sunny skies? Also, why is Beaumont forecasting MID 40S next Monday while they decided to put Houston near 60F for highs? That also makes no sense..right?

Were they not allowed to change what Houston had forecast this morning? Or did they just decide to keep our forecast the same while dropping theirs a ton? It makes no sense at all..


I think sometimes the software they use to write discussions have techincal difficulties and they ask adjacent Lake Charles NWS to assist them in the discussion. If I'm not mistaken it has also happened to Austin/San Antonio NWS and Forth Worth NWS had to fill in.
looks like they are even helping in the short term forecasts too.

Let's just hope Houston can get up and running soon though so that we can get some good forecasts back in here! We all pretty much know that 59F will NOT be happening for Houston on Friday (since all other surrounding NWS offices are showing lower 50s).
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#379 Postby Tireman4 » Wed Nov 29, 2006 4:30 pm

Wall Cloud,


Thanks on the Gulf Coast Snow of 2004 answer.
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#380 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Wed Nov 29, 2006 4:32 pm

Qucik update: The Beaumont forecast has mysteriously changed for the Sun-Mon timeframe. Instead of highs in the 40s...they are now showing mid 50s.

However, Beaumont is still showing a high near 50F for Friday and about 2-4 freeze chances within the next week.
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