Texas winter weather thread - Cold snap next week

[CaptinCrunch]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION....UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1040 AM CST WED NOV 29 2006

.UPDATE...
ARCTIC COLD FRONT MAKING STEADY PROGRESS AND IS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE
WHEN COMPARED TO THE GFS/NAM PROGS. RUC SOLUTION AGREES MOST
REASONABLY WITH EXTRAPOLATION...AND WE EXPECT THE FRONT TO REACH THE
RED RIVER COUNTIES AROUND 4 PM...METROPLEX AROUND 7 OR 8 PM...WACO
AROUND 11 PM. THIS MAY HELP MITIGATE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES...BUT ELEVATED STORMS WITH HAIL/SLEET POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. WE WILL BE DOING A 18Z SOUNDING TO
ASSESS THE CAP STRENGTH...LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILE...AND INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS. SEVERE STORMS...WITH SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE...STILL IN THE
FORECAST FOR MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR THE GRIDS...HAVE SPED UP TIMING IN THE TEMP/WIND/DEWPOINT GRIDS
AND LOWERED MIN TEMPS FOR TONIGHT FURTHER. THE NAM/GFS MODELS HAVE
TRENDED WETTER WITH THE POST FRONTAL PRECIP...AND WITH FREEZING
SURFACE TEMPS EXPECTED EARLIER...WE HAVE MOVED THE FROZEN PRECIP
CHANGEOVER SOUTHWARD. VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM STILL PROGGED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE THE NW COUNTIES...WITH FREEZING RAIN/SLEET...CHANGING
OVER TO SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. FREEZING RAIN/SLEET COULD
REACH THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LIKELY
BEING ISSUED SOUTH OF THE WINTER STORM WATCH LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH THE FASTER TIMING OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE NORTHWEST...WE HAVE
UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THIS PART OF THE CWA. WILL
MAKE THE CALL ON UPGRADING THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCH WITH THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

Told you so!! Models can't handel arctic air and lag behind on most occations. Would'nt be suprised one bit to see winter storm warnings for much of NTX by afternoon AFD. Exspect accumaltions of 1 to 3 inches across much of the D/FW area with higher amounts along the red river.

Tonight: Periods of rain showers before 3am, then periods of freezing rain. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 29. Windy, with a north northwest wind between 15 and 25 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

Thursday: Periods of freezing rain and sleet before 9am, then periods of snow, freezing rain and sleet between 9am and noon, then snow likely after noon. Some thunder is also possible. High near 31. Windy, with a north northwest wind between 15 and 25 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Thursday Night: A 10 percent chance of light snow before 9pm. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly clear, with a low around 24. North northwest wind between 5 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

[double D]

Hmm.. DFW is going to issue winter weather advisory for the souther counties. Could this mean were not out of the woods for the Austin area? It will be interesting to hear what the Austin/San Antonio folk have to say.

[Johnny]

I figured the winter weather would start getting pushes southward, little by little as the front got closer. This isn't the first time this has happened with arctic fronts like this. I'm supposed to be leaving in the morning for Wimberley but am thinking about leaving tonight just in case.

[JenBayles]

A note for the gardeners who may be concerned about ice: leave it on the shrubs! Ice is actually a great insulator, and you will get less freeze damage that way instead of trying to protect them from it by covering. If you're in an area that won't get ice, go ahead and cover and hope for the best.

[Portastorm]

I figured the winter weather would start getting pushes southward, little by little as the front got closer. This isn't the first time this has happened with arctic fronts like this. I'm supposed to be leaving in the morning for Wimberley but am thinking about leaving tonight just in case.

I'm still skeptical ... think it may get as close as a county or two north of us but I think we'll just be cold and damp. No ice, snow, sleet, whatever.

[aggiecutter]

Originally, I took a very conservative approach to this winter weather situation that is developing. I was conservative because similar winter events that have occurred in December over North Texas the past couple years. In those events, the cold air, freezing temps, reached the area as the moisture was pulling out. As a result, there was for the most part a brief and sometimes intense change over.

However, one variable has changed for this event that separates it from the previous years, and that is the intensity and timing of the cold air. In spite of the low out in West Texas a long the front, it is still make significant progress. Once the low passes a particular location, the flood gates will open and arctic air will pour south even faster than it is now.

Thus, this time, the cold air, freezing temps, will be in place at the onset of precipitation making for what could be a significant winter weather event for everyone in North Texas north of I-20. If the track of the upper low tomorrow is just right, this could even turn from a significant to a major winter weather event for this area. I think it's even likely now that the Austin area will probably receive a significant icing event based on the latest data and the progress of the front. Unlike past late November early December winter events of the past couple years, this one has a lot bite with the bark.

[AggieSpirit]

It is 75 degrees right now.

I doubt that the ground will support the 1-2 inches of accumulation the NWS is now forcasting. It's been so warm.

But since I am not an expert,,,, how many hours/days of sub-freezing temps will the warm ground need to support accumulating snow?

With elevated surfaces, I know that ground temps are no obstacle. So I am assuming my commute through the I-20/360 Superramp will be AWFUL tomorrow.

[TexasStooge]

This just in: The National Weather Service has issued a WINTER STORM WARNING for persons in Cooke, Jack, Montague, Stephens, Wise, and Young Counties until 6:00PM CST Thursday.

A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE RED RIVER THIS
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN A DRASTIC DROP IN TEMPERATURES. IN
ADDITION...AREAS OF RAIN WILL PERSIST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING THIS EVENING. MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS MAY
BEGIN TO DEVELOP MAINLY OVER EXPOSED ELEVATED SURFACES AND BRIDGES
IN AREAS NORTHWEST OF A BRECKENRIDGE TO GAINESVILLE LINE BETWEEN 8
PM AND MIDNIGHT. AS THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO COOL THE FREEZING
RAIN WILL MIX WITH SLEET OR LIGHT SNOW BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY.
PERIODS OF SLEET AND SNOW ARE LIKELY DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WITH
TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN ONE AND THREE INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE
SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ALONG WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO
1/4 INCH WILL LIKELY CAUSE SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL PROBLEMS. MOTORISTS
TRAVELING IN THESE AREAS...ESPECIALLY ON RURAL ROADS...SHOULD USE
EXTREME CAUTION OR AVOID DRIVING IF POSSIBLE.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU
MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA BLANKET...FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND
WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE YOU BECOME STRANDED.

[Portastorm]

Listen, all of you folks trying to get everyone here in Austin excited about a possible winter weather event ... you're wrong! The local NWSFO says so:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1136 AM CST WED NOV 29 2006

.UPDATE...
MORNING FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE RAIN CHANCES AND THE
UPCOMING STRONG COLD FRONT. WAS CONSIDERING A CHANCE OF WX GRIDS
TO WORD AS SHOWERS, BUT THE STRONGER THAN FORECAST WINDS AND THE
INCREASED BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUDS WILL WARRANT HIGHER TEMPS AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING REACHED. RADAR
TRENDS DO SHOW CONVECTION GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE VIGOROUS LATE
THIS MORNING. THUS WILL ONLY CHANCE WINDS AND TEMPS FOR NOW.


See? They have a good handle on it ... or so they say ... and now, I am officially worried about tomorrow's weather!

[Yankeegirl]

Looks like a nice winter weather event for all of you guys up north of here!! Send it south!!!

[TexasStooge]

Updated Forecasts:

Forecast for Dallas/Fort Worth
Thursday: 34°F
Thursday Night: 26°F
_____________________________________________________________

Forecast for Waco
Thursday: 37°F
Thursday Night: 27°F
_____________________________________________________________

Forecast for Sherman
Thursday: 30°F
Thursday Night: 21°F
_____________________________________________________________

Forecast for Wichita Falls
Thursday: 29°F
Thursday Night: 18°F
_____________________________________________________________

Forecast for Abilene
Thursday: 37°F
Thursday Night: 23°F

[CaptinCrunch]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/graphicast.jpg

here's the link.

[jasons2k]

Hey captin: can you post these as static images please? the are chaging....thanks.

[jasons2k]

Tornado Watch up for NTX - storms popping now NW of Metroplex:

[double D]

I don't know if I have ever seen WSW and a tornado watch at the same time for the same place. This is indeed a strange situation.

[jasons2k]

Here is a static image so we can have it for the archive. Sorry I missed the previous 2 versions.

[CaptinCrunch]

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH TEXAS...

LATEST THINKING IS THAT THE ARCTIC FRONT AT THE SURFACE IS MOVING
SOUTHEAST FASTER THAN THE MODELS ARE PROJECTING. THE MODELS DO HAVE
A GOOD HANDLE ON THE UPPER SUPPORT...WHICH MEANS THAT NORTH TEXAS
WILL HAVE THE COLD AIR IN PLACE SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED AND
WILL STILL HAVE STRONG UPPER SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WE ARE EXPECTING THE FRONT TO REACH MONTAGUE
COUNTY JUST AFTER NOON AND REACH THE DFW AIRPORT AREA BY 4 TO 5 PM.
THE FRONT WILL HAVE SWEPT ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS BY 3 AM THURSDAY
MORNING.

WE HAVE UPGRADED THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY TO A WINTER STORM WARNING
FOR COUNTIES ALONG AND NORTH OF A GRAHAM...DECATUR...GAINESVILLE
LINE. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF OVER A
HALF INCH OF ICE AND UP TO 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW IN THIS AREA BY
THURSDAY EVENING. GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE WARM...WHICH IS A
MITIGATING FACTOR AND MUCH OF THE FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL
MELT...EXCEPT ON ELEVATED/EXPOSED SURFACES SUCH AS BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES.

FARTHER SOUTH...WE MAY NEED TO UPGRADE THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF A
COMANCHE...WAXAHACHIE...CANTON LINE INCLUDING THE DFW METROPLEX. AS
STATED ABOVE...MUCH OF THE FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL MELT
UNTIL THE GROUND CAN COOL OFF...BUT ELEVATED SURFACES WILL COOL MUCH
FASTER. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WATCH MAY HAVE TO MOVE SOUTH AS
WELL. MODELS ARE HINTING THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL COOL RAPIDLY
THURSDAY MORNING AND BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW BY LATE MORNING OVER
THE METROPLEX. SHOULD THAT OCCUR WE WILL HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO PICK UP
2-4 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE DFW AREA BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS FARTHER SOUTH
BUT TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE SIGNIFICANT.

IN ADDITION...THE DRY LINE WILL SWEEP ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING SOME SEVERE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. WE WILL BE LAUNCHING AN 18Z SOUNDING TO
FURTHER ASSESS THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.

UPDATING TO ADD TORNADO WATCH 869 TO ZONES. OTHERWISE...THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PARAMETERS ARE FINISHED AND HAVE BEEN UPDATED FOR THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE. NO CHANGES TO THE SHORT-TERM PART OF THE
ZONES...AS WE ARE STILL WORKING ON THIS PART.

[gboudx]

Anyone know of a map that might show the wintry precip forecasted accumulations over NTX? It appears the metro area is expecting more accumulation than forecasted yesterday, but I'd like to see it graphically.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Take care up there North Texas and Okie folks. To go from spring like Tornado Warnings to Winter Storm Watches and probably later Warnings within 12 to 18 hours is unbelievable!!

[CaptinCrunch]

Anyone know of a map that might show the wintry precip forecasted accumulations over NTX? It appears the metro area is expecting more accumulation than forecasted yesterday, but I'd like to see it graphically.

accumulation amounts will change as upper low gets closer and storm track becomes better established.