Texas winter weather thread - Cold snap next week

[Brent]

This is from the NWS in Tampa. It doesn't look promising for a cool down.

Yeah, I wouldn't get excited at all. A ridge will keep it from getting too cold. We were supposed to have a major cold snap here but all the models have backed off and it only goes back to normal for the beginning of December(we've been near 70 for highs since Thanksgiving) Looks like now it comes a week later(believe it when I see it).

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 12Z EURO has 1046mb high parked over Texas next Monday. The cold air will be in place, not sure about the precip this far out, though. Look for another arctic blast the end of next week into the weekend.---see long range ENSEMBLES on other thread.

12Z EURO:

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/ecmna.108.gif

that is a pretty cold look right there. A 1046mb polar high sitting just off to our NW would mean some very cold numbers.

[Extremeweatherguy]

by looking at those models is there a way to tell if it is rain or snow?

well if the 0C surface line and the precip. line meet, then you know it has to be at least freezing rain. Then from there you have to analyze the other regions of the atmosphere to see if it is capable of sleet or snow. Also, if the upper air is cold enough, then the surface doesn't necessarily have to be 32F for snow.

For myself personally though, I just like to use the "precip. type" maps from accuweather.com professional.

[WhiteShirt]

Dr. Neil Frank just said Saturday and Sunday may be colder than Friday on the 10pm newscast tonight.

[Extremeweatherguy]

If the 0Z GFS is correct, then next Monday morning may be hard freeze material. It will be calm and cold with a high pressure are RIGHT OVER Texas.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _156.shtml

Then late next week also (continues) to look cold too:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _240.shtml

Lots to watch in the coming days with possibly three big events between Nov. 30th and Dec. 10th.

[Johnny]

I just checked out the forecast for Wimberley (south of Austin) which is where I'll be this Thursday through Monday. I sure hope this forecasts verifies for Thursday night!

http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/b ... 3?dayNum=3

[Extremeweatherguy]

I just checked out the forecast for Wimberley (south of Austin) which is where I'll be this Thursday through Monday. I sure hope this forecasts verifies for Thursday night!

http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/b ... 3?dayNum=3

Yeah, that would be pretty cool.

Even downtown Austin has a forecast of a rain/snow mix now from weather.com:

http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/b ... 7?dayNum=3

Let's just hope weather.com is onto something!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here is the morning Houston AFD:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
425 AM CST TUE NOV 28 2006

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT YESTERDAY (295-300K SURFACES) NOW MAINLY EAST
OF CWFA AND THIS HAS BEEN VERIFIED BY LATEST CR/REFLECTIVITY LOOPS FROM
SURROUNDING WSR-88DS. DEEPER MOIST LAYER YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING INDICATED BY GFS/NAM12 TO BECOME SHALLOWER TODAY DUE TO
DRIER MID LAYER MOVING IN. PW VALUES LOWERING SLIGHTLY TODAY TO
ABOUT 1.2 INCHES. GFS HAS GOOD HANDLE ON CURRENT SITUATION
INDICATING STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT JUST EAST OF CWFA. WE SHALL
INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA OVER CWA TODAY. VERTICAL PROFILES FOR
TOMORROW INDICATE SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND INCREASING
(THOUGH NOT BY MUCH) PWATS BY AFTERNOON. UPPER LOW OVER NW CONUS
WILL ENLONGATE WITH SOUTHERN PORTION DEEPENING WHILE SWINGING
TOWARD TEXAS THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA WILL
SQUEEZE TO NW STATES AND TO THE GREAT BASIN BY WEDNESDAY WITH
LEADING EDGE OF COLD AIR APPROACHING NW TEXAS. STRONG COLD FRONT
STILL ON TRACK FOR THURSDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE TIGHT
1000-500 MB PACKING AND SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
THIS FRONT. FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NW ZONES THURSDAY MORNING...
CENTRAL PORTIONS LATE MORNING/MID DAY...AND COAST EARLY
AFTERNOON. FOR MOST AREAS ...MAX TEMPS WILL BE DURING MORNING
HOURS AND THEN DROPPING QUITE RAPIDLY AS DAY PROGRESSES WHEN FRONT
PASSES THROUGH. READINGS BY LATE AFTERNOON PROBABLY WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 30S TO 40S NORTHERN ZONES...40S TO NEAR 50 CENTRAL AND 50S
COAST. ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH REGION. FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WILL SEE QUITE DRY COLD NIGHTS AND COOL DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REINFORCED THIS WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER HIGH FROM CANADA MOVING
IN. IF GFS IS CORRECT WE MAY GET STRONGER COLD ADVECTION SUNDAY
NIGHT. 850 MB TEMPS (IAH VCNTY) MONDAY MORNING INDICATED TO DROP
SLIGHTLY BELOW 0 DEG C. WE SHALL SEE. 37

And here is their latest forecast:

Today: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 81. South wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 67. South wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Wednesday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 79. South wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Wednesday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 68. South wind around 10 mph.

Thursday: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 69. South wind 10 to 15 mph becoming northwest. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Thursday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers before midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 35.

Friday: Sunny, with a high near 55.

Friday Night: Clear, with a low around 32.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 58.

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 38.

Sunday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 58.

Sunday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 35.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 60.

By the way, I also think it is notworthy that Waco has lowered their high to 38F for Thursday and Dallas has lowered theirs to 35F. Also, Austin has lowered their Friday high from a very warm 61F down to 54F.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Hmmm...

Does anyone else find this graphic from the weather channel strange? It shows rain/snow for most of Texas (all the way to the SE Texas coast) on Thursday:



What's strange though is the fact that this is not what their actual forecast calls for.

[Portastorm]

Another day, another round of head-scratching numbers from the Austin/San Antonio forecast office.

They forecast a low in Austin Thursday night of 36 ... meanwhile, 25 miles up the road in Lampasas, Fort Worth office says a low of 26 there. Then a high of 50 on Friday, while Austin says a high of 54. Furthermore, the forecast discussion from Austin talks about "freezing temperatures areawide" on Thursday and still they forecast a low of 36???!!!

Aye carumba ... somebody please get a clue here!

[TexasStooge]

Here's the Forecast for the Dallas/Ft. Worth area by the NWS:

Today: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before noon. Partly cloudy, with a high near 80. South wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.


Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 65. South wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.


Wednesday: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 76. South wind between 15 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.


Wednesday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Cloudy, with a low around 34. Windy, with a southwest wind 10 to 15 mph becoming north northwest between 20 and 25 mph. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.


Thursday: A chance of rain before noon, then a chance of freezing rain. Cloudy, with a temperature falling to around 30 by 4pm. Windy, with a north northwest wind between 20 and 25 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.


Thursday Night: A slight chance of freezing rain and sleet before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. West northwest wind 15 to 20 mph decreasing to between 5 and 10 mph. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.


Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 47. North northwest wind around 5 mph.


Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 27. East wind around 5 mph.


Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 52. East northeast wind between 5 and 10 mph.


Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 31.


Sunday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 50.


Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 34.


Monday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 54.

It's gonna be a long week for us. Hope everyone's stocked up with hot cocoa mix, soups, and hot apple cider mix!

[cheezyWXguy]

Hmmm...

Does anyone else find this graphic from the weather channel strange? It shows rain/snow for most of Texas (all the way to the SE Texas coast) on Thursday:



What's strange though is the fact that this is not what their actual forecast calls for.

hate to break it to ya...that means light rain...not rain/snow...if its not near any snow, its probably not a mix

[Extremeweatherguy]

Hmmm...

Does anyone else find this graphic from the weather channel strange? It shows rain/snow for most of Texas (all the way to the SE Texas coast) on Thursday:



What's strange though is the fact that this is not what their actual forecast calls for.

hate to break it to ya...that means light rain...not rain/snow...if its not near any snow, its probably not a mix

this image has actually changed since I posted it, but still...why are they the same exact color then? strange..

[cheezyWXguy]

look at the legend above the map...thers no way yall are getting rain snow mix while were getting plain rain when the front hasnt come through either area yet

[Extremeweatherguy]

look at the legend above the map...thers no way yall are getting rain snow mix while were getting plain rain when the front hasnt come through either area yet

yeah, I agree not now, but earlier the image was different. The new image automatically uploads when it comes in.

BTW though, take a look at their overnight forecast. It is showing winter weather to Austin:

[double D]

Another day, another round of head-scratching numbers from the Austin/San Antonio forecast office.

They forecast a low in Austin Thursday night of 36 ... meanwhile, 25 miles up the road in Lampasas, Fort Worth office says a low of 26 there. Then a high of 50 on Friday, while Austin says a high of 54. Furthermore, the forecast discussion from Austin talks about "freezing temperatures areawide" on Thursday and still they forecast a low of 36???!!!

Aye carumba ... somebody please get a clue here!

Austin/San Antonio has lowered they highs in the extended while other NWS offices are quite a bit warmer. All this confusion is making my head spin. Don't you just love winter weather in Texas?

Oh and by the way San Angelo still has Mason at 41 and Fredericksburg at 56 for Thursday's high. You would think someone would start changing the numbers soon.

[jasons2k]

I really don't like those TWC maps. What's up with all the squares? They seem to do this a lot lately and rain/snow lines do not form perfect boxes on a map. I suppose this is why I haven't watched the TWC since maybe 2000.

[aggiecutter]

Small chunks of the unusually cold air mass in the Northwestern Provinces of Canada are breaking off. A small chunk will come through Thursday and another this weekend. There will be significant cool downs with each, but nothing unheard of for this time of the year. However, the ENSEMBLES continue to bring down the motherload in the 8-10 day period. With a snow pack laid down in the plains by then, this could be an unusually cold air mass for this early in the season.

0Z ENSEMBLES:

http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/t ... 12800.html

[double D]

I really don't like those TWC maps. What's up with all the squares? They seem to do this a lot lately and rain/snow lines do not form perfect boxes on a map. I suppose this is why I haven't watched the TWC since maybe 2000.

I totally agree with jschiltz. They are usually very inaccurate and hardly ever verify. If I'm not mistaken, those maps are painted in by computers and have no human input. That is why they have all those squares and look funny.

[Portastorm]

btw, has anyone else noticed how the operational GFS has lost the trough that was supposed to stay to our (Texas) west this weekend? It is completely gone now.

Go figure?!

The Euro suggests otherwise. Think I'm going to take a gander (no pun intended!) at the Canadian and UKMET this morn.