Texas winter weather thread - Cold snap next week

[CaptinCrunch]

Captin, thanks for posting that ... you just beat me. I encourage EVERYONE in Texas on this board to read the forecast discussion from Fort Worth. It is an excellent discussion that lays out all parameters. They also pick up on next week's cold which the Euro and the 0z and 6z GFS show clearly. The 12z run backed off on that and it looks like many of the NWS Texas forecasters took that run hook, line, and sinker.

Geez ... the NWS Fort Worth guys are putting everyone else to shame IMHO.

I agree. It almost makes me wish I lived in Dallas so I could enjoy better forecast reliability.

Norman OK. is another for Arctic reliability and is what I look at before reading FTW AFD, as NWS here usally follows with what Norman thinks. (Notice Timing)

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
327 PM CST MON NOV 27 2006

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST WAS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
POSSIBLE WINTER PRECIPITATION. SHWRS/TSTMS MOVING NE ACROSS FA
TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS WILL CONT TO BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE... CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NEW MEXICO... MOVES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. COLD FRONT THAT MOVED INTO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FA THIS MORNING HAS STALLED AND IS BEGINNING TO
LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AS PRESSURE FALLS INCREASE IN THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES. WARM FRONT WILL CONT TO LIFT NORTH THIS EVENING WHICH
COULD MAKE LOW TEMPS IN NW OK OCCUR THIS EVENING WITH TEMPS
INCREASING A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF FOG WILL BE LIKELY
TONIGHT NORTH OF THE BNDRY AS WARM MOIST AIR ADVECTS NORTHWARD...
WITH SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE. WARM TEMPS WILL CONT TUESDAY
WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF FA AS
SHORTWAVE EXITS REGION.

COLD FRONT USHERING IN THE ARCTIC AIRMASS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER... WITH THE SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS
ALREADY IN PLACE JUST TO THE NORTH OF US AND THE STRENGTH OF THE
COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BELIEVE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH
THE AREA... WITH FRONT IN NW OKLAHOMA BY 12Z... OKC BY AROUND 18Z...
AND IN SE PARTS OF THE FA BY 0Z. HIGHS ACROSS APPROXIMATELY THE NW
HALF OF FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY BE REACHED DURING THE MORNING
HOURS WEDNESDAY WITH FALLING TEMPS IN THE AFTN. MODELS SEEM TO BE
REASONABLE WITH THE UPR PATTERN FOR WED/THU... WITH UPR TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT/THU. WITH THE COLD ARCTIC AIR
MOVING INTO THE AREA... WINTER PRECIP WILL LIKELY AFFECT PARTS OF
THE FA WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THERE ARE STILL UNCERTAINTIES IN
TIMING AND TYPE OF PRECIP THAT WILL OCCUR. HOWEVER... APPEARS THE
BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT WINTER PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS SE
PORTIONS OF FA... MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 44. SOME
WINTER PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER... THIS PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT. DRY AIR AT MID LVLS IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD WHICH MAY HINDER
THE POSSIBILITY OF ANY HEAVY PRECIP. FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MAY BE
THE MAIN IMPACTS... THEN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING. FOR
FURTHER DETAILS... REFER TO THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT /SPSOUN/.
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CLD COVER WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS FROM
RISING MUCH ON THURSDAY. DECREASING WINDS AND CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO THE COLDEST NIGHT SO FAR THIS SEASON THURSDAY
NIGHT... WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN NW OK TO THE LOW 20S IN
SE PORTIONS OF FA.

AFTER THURSDAY... TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL AS SFC RIDGE REMAINS OVER
THE AREA. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO EXTENDED DUE TO FOCUS ON TONIGHT
THROUGH DAY 4.

[TexasStooge]

Here's an updated Special Weather Statement:

A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH NORTH TEXAS
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING AN ABRUPT
END TO THE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE
THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...IT IS CLEAR THAT TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS...ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER
AND SOME PRECIPITATION.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL
STEADILY FALL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOCATIONS NORTHWEST OF A
GAINESVILLE TO BRECKENRIDGE LINE WILL REMAIN AT BELOW FREEZING AND
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING. THE
FREEZING RAIN MAY ALSO MIX WITH SLEET OR LIGHT SNOW DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...AS TEMPERATURES FALL TO FREEZING OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW...SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY
NORTHWEST OF A CANTON...HILLSBORO...TO LAMPASAS LINE. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO ICE ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED.

A HARD FREEZE IS LIKELY AREAWIDE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING TO NEAR 20 DEGREES IN THE OUTLYING RURAL AREAS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE METROPLEX ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE NOW TO PROTECT SUSCEPTIBLE PIPES...
PLANTS...OR OTHER VEGETATION SENSITIVE TO THE COLD. PERSONS WITH
OUTDOOR PETS SHOULD MAKE SURE THAT THEY HAVE A WARM PLACE TO STAY.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATEST
UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION.

THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO ICE ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED.

That seems to be mostly good news...for some.

Potential Thursday Forecast and Highs for North Texas by the NWS:

- Dallas/Fort Worth: 37°F
- Meridian: 41°F
- Sherman: 35°F
- Wichita Falls: 32°F

Be sure to get bundled up!!

[aggiecutter]

I'm not really sold on this arctic outbreak. I think will be below normal for a couple days and that is about it, BUT!!!!---The following week it looks like the real deal is coming. The real McCoy if you will.

GFS ENSEMBLES---note---the ENSEMBLES were money last year in the long range on bringing down the cold air.

http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/t ... 12712.html

[Portastorm]

aggiecutter ... great to see you back in the fray!!!

[jasons2k]

the 18Z GFS STILL shows winter precip. reaching Houston Friday morning. I am really amazed this trend has yet to be mentioned by the Houston NWS (or the Austin NWS).

This whole situation just makes me really upset with our local NWS office. It seems like all they are doing is going with the warmest scenarios, not taking any risks, and just hoping they are right. Hopefully by Thursday morning they will have it all sorted out.

BTW: I like the Dallas discussions a lot. They are much more detailed than ours in Houston and are usually more accurate. I think they probably have the best handle on the situation right now.

Don't be frustrated. They are just calling it how they see it. It pretty much takes a miracle to see winter precip here. You might have to wait years. There is a bit more to it than just "hoping they are right."

I dunno if it's accurate to say DFW is "more accurate" or better than here in Houston. Believe me, I lived there for almost 20 years and saw them bust PLENTY of times, their AFDs almost always arrive late/last, and during busy times they tend to be excessively brief. Maybe if someone presented a few years' worth of verification numbers we could go there, but please don't fault one NWS office over another just b/c they don't say what you WANT them to say.

As for DFW, they do have a good handle in the event FOR THEIR forecast zone which - if you read their Hazardous Weather Outlook - the threat of winter precip bisects their forecast zone. This would completely EXCLUDE Houston's forecast zones from any winter precip. In other words, based on DFW's analysis, there won't be any snow or ice anywhere around here. Betcha liked them more BEFORE I pointed that out.

[wall_cloud]

The 12z run backed off on that and it looks like many of the NWS Texas forecasters took that run hook, line, and sinker.

don't discount all the TX offices.

[Extremeweatherguy]

the 18Z GFS STILL shows winter precip. reaching Houston Friday morning. I am really amazed this trend has yet to be mentioned by the Houston NWS (or the Austin NWS).

This whole situation just makes me really upset with our local NWS office. It seems like all they are doing is going with the warmest scenarios, not taking any risks, and just hoping they are right. Hopefully by Thursday morning they will have it all sorted out.

BTW: I like the Dallas discussions a lot. They are much more detailed than ours in Houston and are usually more accurate. I think they probably have the best handle on the situation right now.

Don't be frustrated. They are just calling it how they see it. It pretty much takes a miracle to see winter precip here. You might have to wait years. There is a bit more to it than just "hoping they are right."

I dunno if it's accurate to say DFW is "more accurate" or better than here in Houston. Believe me, I lived there for almost 20 years and saw them bust PLENTY of times, their AFDs almost always arrive late/last, and during busy times they tend to be excessively brief. Maybe if someone presented a few years' worth of verification numbers we could go there, but please don't fault one NWS office over another just b/c they don't say what you WANT them to say.

As for DFW, they do have a good handle in the event FOR THEIR forecast zone which - if you read their Hazardous Weather Outlook - the threat of winter precip bisects their forecast zone. This would completely EXCLUDE Houston's forecast zones from any winter precip. In other words, based on DFW's analysis, there won't be any snow or ice anywhere around here. Betcha liked them more BEFORE I pointed that out.

When I said the "whole situation" I really meant that as the whole arctic front in general (and the cold air to follow), not just winter precip. chances. The Houston NWS is making it seem like this will be a weak blast of cold air (highs in the mid 50s, lows near freezing), while other sources are indicating it could be much colder. It is just overall a confusing situation right now and can be frustrating in trying to determine what I should expect here late this week.

As for winter precip. in general, I understand it is hard to get it down this way and I do not expect our NWS to forecast anything like that right now, however, it would be nice if they talked about why the GFS is showing it reaching us and why they don't think the model is accurate. I just don't think a 2-3 day running trend should be discounted.

[Portastorm]

The 12z run backed off on that and it looks like many of the NWS Texas forecasters took that run hook, line, and sinker.

don't discount all the TX offices.

Oops!!

Like I was saying .... those guys in Amarillo are fantastic, aren't they?! Didn't I just say that?! Well I meant to ...

[aggiecutter]

Portastorm, glad to be back. I've been very busy the past couple months. I just went and checked the long range operational GFS to see if it was in line with its Ensembles, which quite often it is not. To my surprise, it is. That just gives me more confidence down the road. Hopefully, the ENSEMBLES will be as accurate as they were last year in predicting arctic outbreaks in the long range.

operational GFS @ 252

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _252.shtml

[wall_cloud]

The 12z run backed off on that and it looks like many of the NWS Texas forecasters took that run hook, line, and sinker.

don't discount all the TX offices.

Oops!!

Like I was saying .... those guys in Amarillo are fantastic, aren't they?! Didn't I just say that?! Well I meant to ...

Just messin' with ya!

[Yankeegirl]

Glad to see ya back aggie! and i am with you on the thoughts for the next cold shot... From what i have been hearing we are going to get a good coold down here on thursday/friday timeframe, and another front, a stronger one, is due in on sunday... is that the one you are talkin about?

[jasons2k]

The Houston NWS is making it seem like this will be a weak blast of cold air (highs in the mid 50s, lows near freezing), while other sources are indicating it could be much colder.

Here's why:
1) Shallow airmass, at least at first
2) Lack of snowpack - faster modification
3) Early (not late) December

In all seriousness, the the 55 on Friday looks a bit high but if we do have full sun it could happen. We'll see on that.

BTW earlier - just giving you a hard time. Sometimes your enthusiasm for extremes cracks me up a bit.

[gboudx]

BTW earlier - just giving you a hard time. Sometimes your enthusiasm for extremes cracks me up a bit.

To be fair, he didn't choose the name Mildweatherguy.

[Portastorm]

You know, the Houston NWS forecast seems reasonable to me right now. I don't think there's all that much chance of SE Texas getting anything frozen ... at least with this event.

jschlitz's 1-2-3 reasonings are good points. Besides, we're still talking a 30-degree departure from what we are seeing today, tomorrow, and Wednesday and that is going to FEEL very dramatic to all of us!

[Yankeegirl]

As long as its a little cooler than what it is now and feels more like winter, so I can put up the Christmas tree, I am cool with it... I also dont think there is much chance that we are going to see anything frozen outta this either... I do think though maybe later on in the winter, when there is a good snow pack up north...

[Extremeweatherguy]

the snowpack is building somewhat in the NW ahead of this polar high; but you guys are right, the forecast is probably "generally" correct. However, I think Thursday's dramatic temperature drop should be advertised more (like they are doing up in the Dallas NWS forecast area), and I also think that Thursday night through Saturday will likely be a few degrees cooler than shown. Overall though their forecast is probably pretty decent at this point.

Next week still looks like it has the most potential though. With more cold air already in place and a larger snowpack..that next airmass may have less time to modify before reaching us. If everything plays out right...then cloudy, raw, cold days could be just ahead.

[Kennethb]

It is still late November and really too early to expect wintry precip too far south. Agree that the snow pack and overall winter weather pattern needs to become more established and that usually occurs by January and into February, for most opportunities for wintry precip.

Perhaps the GFS is sniffing something later on in December and is a sign of the weather pattern that we will have this winter.

Here in Baton Rouge, I recall once in November, November 29, 1976 when we had wintry precip and that was a sleet storm that began in the afternoon and lasted into the evening, with a few flakes at the end.

As far as snow goes, the earliest December snow I can recall was December 17, 1973 when we had flurries throughout the day. Though there was the great cold snap of December 12-14, 1962 when I think we had a snow as well.

Perhaps this cold blast will bring some surprises.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Speaking of early winter weather kennethb, here are some dates of important "earliest" numbers for those of us in Houston:

Earliest ever high in the 30s (since 1927) = Nov. 28th, 1976 (last December 7th's cold snap ranks as the 2nd earliest highs in the 30s for Houston)

Earliest ever low in the teens (since 1927) = Nov. 30th, 1976

Earliest "widespread" ice storm (in last 50 years) = Nov. 28th/29th, 1976

Earliest "widespread" snowstorm = Hard to determine. According to this site ( http://www.wxresearch.com/snowhou.htm ) the earliest dated one is Dec. 21st, 1929. However, there are two snowfalls on that site (1944 and 1961) that just say "December" without a date. For all we know, those could have happened well before the 21st of the month.

[Extremeweatherguy]

One thing that leads me to believe JB may be right about this very cold early December pattern is the fact that he called for all this snow in Seattle (which they are currently getting and got last night too) many days in advance. At the point he called for it, the Seattle NWS office still was just saying "rain".

BTW, to see some of the snow going on there right now...check out the packers vs. seahawks game on ESPN.

[Portastorm]

One thing that leads me to believe JB may be right about this very cold early December pattern is the fact that he called for all this snow in Seattle (which they are currently getting and got last night too) many days in advance. At the point he called for it, the Seattle NWS office still was just saying "rain".

BTW, to see some of the snow going on there right now...check out the packers vs. seahawks game on ESPN.

Oh man, you're not kidding!! I just turned on the game. Looks like it's being played in Green Bay instead of Seattle!!!