Texas winter weather thread - Cold snap next week

[Johnny]

Great discussion guys/gals. Hey, whatever happened to AFM? He's top notch when it comes to winter weather in the deep south. I know a few people really pissed him off during the tropical weather season and I would of been pissed off too. I sure hope that didn't run him off.

Alot of the NWS offices (that draw up discussions) from what I have heard are youngsters who rely heavily on modeling and disregard climatology when it comes to arctic fronts diving into the CONUS. It's been said many of time on here....models have a very hard time grasping the strength of arctic fronts when they enter the CONUS.

Last year around this time(oops, had to edit...it was actually the first week of December) we had a short lived arctic front that came on down. It came through during the evening and the next morning I woke up to 28 degrees with a 25 mph wind out of the north....and solid overcast(snow flurries were reported in many areas in Southeast, Texas that morning...which was never mentioned at all). The NWS forecasted us to get up into the mid 40's that day and here in Conroe we hit 33 for a high that day. We were hovering around 30 to 32 for most of the day and boy was it cooooold. I went hunting that evening and had to wipe ice out of my tripod seat and tears from my eyes.

The fact is...if we have a 1054 high that comes straight down the lee of the rockies and blasts through Texas, you can't be your rear end that it is going to be a good bit colder than forecasted. If this happens then temperatures will definately be trending downwards, which is what has been happening the past few days. That's my 2 cents.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I was browsing the KHOU weather fourms and a pro met who frequently visits the "Talkin Tropics" fourm said that he thinks the Houston NWS is 15-20 degrees to warm through Saturday. He also thinks that this weekend will be much cooler than what they are forecasting (highs in the 40's). Just thought that was interesting.

wow, your right. That is a very interesting post by wxman57. Hopefully he will post that same comment here so people can see what he is saying. Very interesting indeed.

He even mentioned the possibility that some sleet could reach us (a few pellets) and he thinks the front could arrive 12-24 hrs. faster than the NWS is calling for.

BTW: I encourage you to all visit ******* and find their weather discussion section to read it for yourself. It is very interesting.

Edited by CM

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[jasons2k]

re: adjacent forecasts:

as some have pointed out, they don't always agree on the numbers. sometimes they generally agree but the grids don't line-up perfectly.

I think some may be reading into actual numbers from 7-days away a bit too much. The numbers can and will change a lot before then. In the end, both sets of numbers will probably be off.

All I'm saying is that it's not too far-fetched for Victoria to record a max or min lower than IAH, esp. if the cold air is plunging at the right angle.

It would be very unusual for Corpus to do that too since it is further SE. I don't recall Corpus being part of the original scenario though. That's very unlikely to verify but not impossible if a very shallow airmass were plunging more due south towards the Rio Grande, the cold air could feasibly arrive there first.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 0Z GFS is initializing with too weak of a high too: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _000.shtml

It shows it at 1044-1045mb (which is 9-10mb too weak).

This is really pathetic if you think about it. You would think these models would be corrected with the accurate information...right?

[Extremeweatherguy]

BTW, for a comparison take a look at just how sudden last December's arctic blast came in. It almost seems like it was a surprise to the NWS offices. We went from 50-55F high temp. forecasts in Houston down to mid 40s for highs forecasted, and then eventually 30s (the day of). I think the same (or similar to the same) type of thing will happen this time...

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=79205

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 26&start=0

And for proof of how sudden it really was, and how poorly the NWS offices handled it...take a look at Portastorm's quotes just two days apart:

Afternoon of Dec. 5th, 2005:

The Austin/San Antonio NWS office just issued its afternoon discussion and has ruled out frozen precip chances for our area.

Given this news and their track record in previous events, I am now officially worried that we're going to get smacked by an ice storm!

Just two days before the event the Austin NWS ruled out frozen precip...and two days later, what happens?

Evening of Dec. 7th, 2005:

yeah I'm trying to figure out why the Winter Storm Warning ... conditions here haven't changed all that much.

Scratch that! Freezing rain really starting to come down now here in north Austin. There have been between 30-50 accidents in town in the last hour. Amazing!

This just goes to show how unpredictable these events are...even 48 hrs. before hand!

[wall_cloud]

Alot of the NWS offices (that draw up discussions) from what I have heard are youngsters who rely heavily on modeling and disregard climatology when it comes to arctic fronts diving into the CONUS.

some are. some aren't. broadbrushing doesn't work.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Crazy. Weekend TV weather forecaster is predicting 60 for Corpus on Friday. Crash, crash, crash will happen with that number.

[Extremeweatherguy]

0Z GFS continues the cold look (showing a low of 28F Friday morning), but I am completely going to throw out the models until they begin to initialize the high pressure strength correctly. 10mb can make a huge difference in the final result. May be by tomorrow's 6Z or 12Z we can see some progress.

**One difference in the 0Z, however, is that it is faster with the front than the 18Z. It does still bring a chance of some sleet/snow to Houston at the very tail end though around midnight Friday morning.**

[Portastorm]

Hey EWG ... thanks for digging up those posts ... I remember that day quite well and how "quickly" things changed. Oh, seeing those posts again made me chuckle ...

[senorpepr]

With all due respect, I don't think this event is hardly worthy of the phrase "arctic blast." It's hardly getting below freezing.

Furthermore, I'm not sure if I'd call this an arctic front. From what I see, it's not being supported by the Arctic Jet, but rather the usual Polar Front Jet.

[Portastorm]

With all due respect, I don't think this event is hardly worthy of the phrase "arctic blast." It's hardly getting below freezing.

Furthermore, I'm not sure if I'd call this an arctic front. From what I see, it's not being supported by the Arctic Jet, but rather the usual Polar Front Jet.

Considering that we've been in the 70s and 80s for several weeks ... 40s and 30s will be a "blast" for us. But I hear what you're saying, chief.

P.S. Those of us in Texas may want to pay more attention to the latter part of the weekend. The main trough in the latest 0z GFS run stays out to our west. If we can get enough cold air near the surface ... albeit shallow ... precip chances will return by Sunday. Hmmm.

[senorpepr]

Right, I understand that it's quite the temperature decrease... but what this thread is calling "arctic" is what arctic people call nice!

[Extremeweatherguy]

With all due respect, I don't think this event is hardly worthy of the phrase "arctic blast." It's hardly getting below freezing.

Furthermore, I'm not sure if I'd call this an arctic front. From what I see, it's not being supported by the Arctic Jet, but rather the usual Polar Front Jet.

There is another pro met on a local weather board here in Houston saying that NWS forecasted highs Thursday - Saturday are up to 15-20 degrees too warm for Houston. If that is right, then this will certainly be an arctic blast. Also, JB has been saying 26F-32F with wind all the way to I-10 and north TX NWS forecasts are calling for some wintery precip out of this. Also, the GFS model continues to show winter precip. reaching even further south in the state and with -30F to -50F temperatures and a 1054mb high in NW Canada and eastern Alaska..I think I would consider that an "arctic blast" in the making for Texas.

BTW, our definition of "arctic blast" is very different than in Nebraska. If we even have the threat of a hard freeze (especially after a warm period) or highs in the 40s in early December, then it is an "arctic blast" for us.

Also, local NWS offices down here are also calling this "arctic", so I guess there is some disagreement on exactly whether it is being supported by the arctic jet or not:

From the Dallas, TX AFD:

407 PM PUBLIC DISCUSSION
WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. WE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SWEEP
SOUTH INTO NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...BRINGING THE
COLDEST WEATHER SO FAR THIS SEASON. THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM IS
STILL NOT SETTLED...AND WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES.
MOREOVER...THE GFS IS KEEPING PRECIPITATION OVER NORTH TEXAS INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. BY 18Z THURSDAY...THE 12Z RUN OF THE GFS BRINGS THE
SURFACE 32F LINE FROM PARIS TO JUST SOUTH OF DFW...TO BROWNWOOD. THE
18Z FORECAST SOUNDING AT DFW SHOWS TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING FROM
THE SURFACE TO 850 MB...WITH A WARM NOSE ABOVE 850 MB THROUGH 700
MB. HAVE NOT TOTALLY BITTEN OFF ON THIS. BUT HAVE ADDED FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS THURSDAY MORNING..RAIN OR SNOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN QUARTER THURSDAY AFTERNOON... AND RAIN OR SNOW
ACROSS THE TWO NORTHERN TIERS ON COUNTIES THURSDAY EVENING.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH AT THIS POINT...BUT FOUND IT DIFFICULT
TO JUST IGNORE. IT WILL DRY OUT FRIDAY...AND THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL
HOLD IN INTO THE WEEKEND...THOUGH WE WILL SEE MODERATING
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY. #58

The North Platte, NE AFD (up your way) is also calling this "arctic":

DISCUSSION FOR TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE ARCTIC FRONT COMING THROUGH THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WILL GENERATE PLENTY OF LIFT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MID
LEVELS WHERE THE BEST 2D-FRONTOGENESIS IS EXPECTED. EVAPORATION IN
THE LOWER LEVELS WILL REDUCE THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONDENSATION
DEFICITS TO 50-100MB. ANYWAY...SOME LIGHT SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITY OF 1G/KG...THE WATER CONTENT WILL
NOT BE VERY HIGH. THE RATIO OF SNOW TO WATER MAY BE AS HIGH AS 50-1.
WITH WIND OF 20-30 MPH...BLOWING AND DRIFTING CAN BE EXPECTED WHERE
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DO OCCUR.
OTHERWISE...THE BIG FORECAST NEWS IS THE BIG CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES. IN FACT...ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH
20F IN THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST. THEN...RECOVERY WILL
PROBABLY NOT BE REAL SHARP.

[Yankeegirl]

I understand what you are saying Senor, about it hardly being a Arctic front, but I have lived in New England and here in Texas and I swear if the temps get below 70 people have on jackets and sweaters... I kid you not... Anything here under the 40 degree mark is definately arctic....
Things here arent made the same as they are in colder climates as well...Houses here really arent insulated that great, the power lines snap with a little bit of ice, the overpasses freeze over, the people using the sanders really have no clue what they are doing and the list goes on... so when there is mention of arctic air on the way, people down here listen...

[senorpepr]

There is another pro met on a local weather board here in Houston saying that NWS forecasted highs Thursday - Saturday are up to 15-20 degrees too warm for Houston. If that is right, then this will certainly be an arctic blast. Also, JB has been saying 26F-32F with wind all the way to I-10 and north TX NWS forecasts are calling for some wintery precip out of this. Also, the GFS model continues to show winter precip. reaching even further south in the state and with -30F to -50F temperatures and a 1054mb high in NW Canada and eastern Alaska..I think I would consider that an "arctic blast" in the making for Texas.

BTW, our definition of "arctic blast" is very different than in Nebraska. If we even have the threat of a hard freeze (especially after a warm period) or highs in the 40s in early December, then it is an "arctic blast" for us.

This isn't a Texas versus Nebraska thing here. What I'm talking about is the proper usage of the word "arctic blast." The event is not really "quick" enough to be called a "blast." Furthermore, you are not seeing true Arctic area. Yes, Canada and even northern US will see Arctic air, but upper 20s is highly modified.

Also, local NWS offices down here are also calling this "arctic", so I guess there is some disagreement on exactly whether it is being supported by the arctic jet or not:

From the Dallas AFD:

407 PM PUBLIC DISCUSSION
WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. WE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SWEEP
SOUTH INTO NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...BRINGING THE
COLDEST WEATHER SO FAR THIS SEASON. THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM IS
STILL NOT SETTLED...AND WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES.
MOREOVER...THE GFS IS KEEPING PRECIPITATION OVER NORTH TEXAS INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. BY 18Z THURSDAY...THE 12Z RUN OF THE GFS BRINGS THE
SURFACE 32F LINE FROM PARIS TO JUST SOUTH OF DFW...TO BROWNWOOD. THE
18Z FORECAST SOUNDING AT DFW SHOWS TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING FROM
THE SURFACE TO 850 MB...WITH A WARM NOSE ABOVE 850 MB THROUGH 700
MB. HAVE NOT TOTALLY BITTEN OFF ON THIS. BUT HAVE ADDED FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS THURSDAY MORNING..RAIN OR SNOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN QUARTER THURSDAY AFTERNOON... AND RAIN OR SNOW
ACROSS THE TWO NORTHERN TIERS ON COUNTIES THURSDAY EVENING.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH AT THIS POINT...BUT FOUND IT DIFFICULT
TO JUST IGNORE. IT WILL DRY OUT FRIDAY...AND THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL
HOLD IN INTO THE WEEKEND...THOUGH WE WILL SEE MODERATING
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY. #58

After further investigation, the front is not truly supported by the Arctic Jet, but rather the Polar Front Jet. However, there is a finger of the Arctic Jet behind the cold front that is supporting a pretty nasty cold pocket aloft.

[Extremeweatherguy]

With all due respect, I don't think this event is hardly worthy of the phrase "arctic blast." It's hardly getting below freezing.

Furthermore, I'm not sure if I'd call this an arctic front. From what I see, it's not being supported by the Arctic Jet, but rather the usual Polar Front Jet.

Considering that we've been in the 70s and 80s for several weeks ... 40s and 30s will be a "blast" for us. But I hear what you're saying, chief.

P.S. Those of us in Texas may want to pay more attention to the latter part of the weekend. The main trough in the latest 0z GFS run stays out to our west. If we can get enough cold air near the surface ... albeit shallow ... precip chances will return by Sunday. Hmmm.

yeah, the precip. Sunday through early next week looks interesting. The 0Z GFS run wants to try and keep the highs down below 50F during that period too and with clouds, some wind and rain...talk about downright chilly weather! The models are even showing winter precip. chances on and off through that period in north and NW Texas. Looks interesting..

[Yankeegirl]

bring it on! it is winter, right?

[weatherrabbit_tx]

so if its going to be like last year's cold snap if we have any frozen precip, seems that I remember stayinig up even though I had to work the very next day, we had reports of light snow in montgomery, in parts of waller county, monaville comes to mind so I would say columbus to katy to conroe to livingston line, well all is speculation at this point 3 to 4 days in advance, wouldnt mind seeing some precip put us in the holiday spirit

[Extremeweatherguy]

The NWS forecasts remain unchanged this morning. Austin has even risen their temps! Makes me wonder a little bit about whether or not we will get as cold as I have been hearing. Still such a confusing situation.

The 6Z GFS does still show winter precip. for the state and even has it reaching Houston (still) Friday morning. That is pretty significant, yet the NWS offices are reluctant to even mention the chances it seems...except Dallas who is now calling for a rain/sleet mix as far SE as Athens, TX on Friday night.

Looks like it will still take another few days to figure this all out.

Also, the strange thing is that Houston referred to this yet again as "arctic air" moving this way, yet their numbers (high of 53F, low of 30F on the coldest day) don't really reflect what "arctic air" should do.

Hopefully we know more by this afternoon..

BTW: KHOU.com is forecasting a high of 49F on Friday for Houston.

[Extremeweatherguy]

6Z GFS seems to show a stronger front and colder airmass than the GFS. the 850mb temperature falls behind the NAM front look impressive:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _084.shtml