Texas winter weather thread - Cold snap next week

[Extremeweatherguy]

just changed it to Texas winter weather thread. Hopefully everyone is happy now and we can move on with the subject at hand.

[Portastorm]

just changed it to Texas winter weather thread. Hopefully everyone is happy now and we can move on with the subject at hand.

Are YOU happy about it?!

[Portastorm]

I have been waiting on the 12z GFS run ... and it's coming out now ... and it continues to suggest that upper level energy will lag behind the arctic front and create a POTENTIAL winter weather scenario for portions of Texas.

Here is the 108 hr:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _108.shtml

[Extremeweatherguy]

I have been waiting on the 12z GFS run ... and it's coming out now ... and it continues to suggest that upper level energy will lag behind the arctic front and create a POTENTIAL winter weather scenario for portions of Texas.

Here is the 108 hr:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _108.shtml

that is very interesting. Looks like each run has become more and more promising for such a scenario too, and the craziest thing is that this is now less than 5 days out. If the models look the same by Tuesday and Wednesday then the local NWS offices will probably be forced to issue winter precipitation forecasts.

[cheezyWXguy]

wow...weather.com has plano for a high of 41 and now rain/snow showers thru the whole day on thursday! Theres gonna be a lot of happy kids in NTX if this keeps up

[Extremeweatherguy]

wow...weather.com has plano for a high of 41 and now rain/snow showers thru the whole day on thursday! Theres gonna be a lot of happy kids in NTX if this keeps up

weather.com is not that crazy (at least yet) for SE Texas, but it does show lower 30s with rain on Thursday night.

[Extremeweatherguy]

12Z GFS surface temperature forecast for Houston (IAH):

Thursday morning (daybreak) = 66F ~ Storms approaching from the NW.

Thursday afternoon = 75F ~ rain/storms

Thursday evening = 42F ~ cold rain with sleet mixed just to the NW.

Friday morning (daybreak) = 31F ~ sleet/snow mix.

Friday afternoon = 42F ~ Clouds breaking with a few flurries to the NE.

Friday evening = 33F ~ Clearing and cold.

Saturday morning (daybreak) = 28F ~ Clear and cold.

This run of the GFS is likely still too slow (the front will probably arrive 6-12 hrs. earlier), but it is interesting that yet again it shows winter precip. reaching SE Texas in the form of sleet and snow early Friday morning.

**Also, just for laughs, the 12Z GFS brings IAH's surface temperature down to near 10-11F on the evening of December 11th. I guess this may be our next arctic blast to watch, but I doubt we get that cold.**

[double D]

I have been waiting on the 12z GFS run ... and it's coming out now ... and it continues to suggest that upper level energy will lag behind the arctic front and create a POTENTIAL winter weather scenario for portions of Texas.

Here is the 108 hr:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _108.shtml

This is what Texas weather is all about. 70's and 80's all week long and now were talking about arctic air and possible frozen precipation. You got to love it.

[double D]

WOW! check this out from the Amarillo NWS. This is a change from a couple of days ago.

...MUCH COLDER AIR BY MIDWEEK. SNOW AND ICE POSSIBLE...

UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY... BUT A STRONG CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL
RESULT IN SHARPLY COLDER CONDITIONS BY LATE WEDNESDAY. AFTER THE
COLD AIR MOVES IN... THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY OF SNOW AND ICE
ACROSS THE AREA. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW OR ICE WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY.
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S EACH DAY THROUGH
TUESDAY... WHILE MORNING TEMPERATURES FALL ONLY INTO THE 50S OR
LOWER 60S ACROSS MOST OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS. MEANWHILE... A
COLD CANADIAN AIR MASS CONTINUES TO BUILD TO THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES
EARLY THIS MORNING WERE ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE
DAKOTAS... AND BELOW ZERO IN PARTS OF MONTANA.

THE STRONG CANADIAN COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT... AND THEN PROCEED
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS BY
MIDDAY WEDNESDAY... BEFORE REACHING SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS STRONG FRONT IS LIKELY TO DROP TEMPERATURES
SHARPLY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY... WITH READINGS FALLING FROM
MORNING HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S INTO THE 30S AND 40S BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH THE COLD AIR
TO LOWER WIND CHILLS INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS IN MANY AREAS
BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

IN ADDITION TO THE IMMINENT ARRIVAL OF MUCH COLDER AIR AROUND
MIDWEEK... A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS NOW EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN LATE WEDNESDAY AND LATE THURSDAY. THIS STORM
SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW AND ICE OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS BETWEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY EVENING.

THE RETURN OF MUCH COLDER AIR BY MIDWEEK IS VIRTUALLY CERTAIN... BUT
THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE STORM
SYSTEM LATER IN THE WEEK. RESIDENTS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS
SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER WEATHER BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT... AND LISTEN TO THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION REGARDING THE
POSSIBILITY OF SNOW OR ICE BY AROUND THURSDAY.

$$

24

[Portastorm]

Yeah double D ... indeed a change and it appears that the NWS forecasters are seeing the GFS modeling that suggests upper level energy will be swinging across the state FOLLOWING the front.

We have a lot of potential weather on the horizon and this joint will be jumpin'!

[Portastorm]

I'll attempt to do a 12z GFS progged weather outlook for the Austin area:

Thursday evening: 32 degrees and light wintry precip

Thursday midnight: 30 degrees and light wintry precip continuing

Friday morning: 27 degrees and precip has ended

Friday afternoon: High reaches 42 degrees but quickly drops back to freezing by the evening

Friday night/Saturday morning: lows in the upper 20s.

Hmmm ...


P.S. For your entertainment purposes ... south Texas snowstorm anyone? See this link:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_360m.gif

[Extremeweatherguy]

I'll attempt to do a 12z GFS progged weather outlook for the Austin area:

Thursday evening: 32 degrees and light wintry precip

Thursday midnight: 30 degrees and light wintry precip continuing

Friday morning: 27 degrees and precip has ended

Friday afternoon: High reaches 42 degrees but quickly drops back to freezing by the evening

Friday night/Saturday morning: lows in the upper 20s.

Hmmm ...


P.S. For your entertainment purposes ... south Texas snowstorm anyone? See this link:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_360m.gif

yeah, that 360 hr. GFS is from the same system that shows Houston reaching 10-11F. If it were to actually play out then WOW, but at this point I am not buying into the crazy scenario yet.

[JenBayles]

I think we need to quit stomping on Extreme. He's done a wonderful job maintaining the SE TX thread, and nobody has ever been excluded. Several members have looked to the thread he started months ago and really liked the regional format and being able to go to one thread. First he's told to move it to the Winter thread, and now he's getting jumped on for having too many threads. Frankly, I LIKE the regional threads, and any and all are free to participate.

[weatherrabbit_tx]

going to get interesting by the end of the week and what extreme said about 10 days or so out maybe just a hint of things to come for the month of december and then again this could be our two and done with, will see

[Johnny]

Portastorm, I'll be payiing attention to what you have to say since I will be in Wimberley Thursday through Monday. Man, that would be nice to get a little wintry weather while staying there. Either was it looks like it is going to be coooold! Sounds great to me!!

[gboudx]

DFW mid-day update:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1150 AM CST SUN NOV 26 2006

.UPDATE...
LOW CLOUDS ARE BREAKING UP ACROSS NORTH TEXAS BUT THERE IS A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.
HAVE ADJUSTED THE SKY COVER WORDING TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF...AND PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE EAST. WITH MORE SUNSHINE
OVER THE EAST...HAS INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON/S HIGHS BY A CATEGORY
OR SO IN THE EAST.

LOOKING AT THE 06Z AND 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS...AM CONCERNED ABOUT THE
PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE PROFILES FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. WILL NEED LOOK AT MORE DATA BEFORE MAKING A DECISION ON
WHETHER TO ADD A MENTION OF ANY TYPE OF WINTERY PRECIPITATION.

[Extremeweatherguy]

check out the weather.com forecast for Thursday night:

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

P.S. For your entertainment purposes ... south Texas snowstorm anyone? See this link:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_360m.gif

Bring it on!

[Extremeweatherguy]

we are now just about an hour out from when most of the new AFDs and forecasts should come out. They should be very interesting this afternoon. I am wondering whether or not Dallas will decide to put winter precip. in their forecast and whether the southern areas like Austin and Houston mention the possibility in the AFD.

[KatDaddy]

S TX 2004 Snowstorm repeate . Talk about a pipe dream however that would really be awesome. Hopefully this pattern of sharp troughs and blast of Arctic air will contiue all Winter. The weak El Nino just may provide enough SW flow to bring in moisture just when we need for a TX and LA snowfall. That is what I am hanging my hat on for the rest of the upcoming Winter.