Blue Northern in the Works for TX next Week?

[ETXHAMXYL]

Was watching the weather channel on their long outlook for next week. Showed a graphic of a artic blast that was heading south and had Dallas in the 70's but by Thursday of next week wouldn't be out of the 40's.
So is it really heading this far south? How long will it last? Any possible frozen stuff coming?
Haven't seen many of the Texas mets on here or any comments relating to Texas winter weather on this board in quiet some time. Where is AirForce Met? His forecasts are usually right on the money in my opinion.

[Extremeweatherguy]

yes, it looks like a blue norther may be on the way. According to JB, the upper plains will likely struggle to get out of the teens late next week, and Denver may struggle to get above 0F. He also said that freezing temps. with wind would likely reach I-20 or I-10 in Texas during a day late next week (and I believe he meant for highs...though I am not 100% sure). If he is right, then this will be a record-setting cold blast for sure (comparable to the one last Dec. 7th - 9th). Could be quite a cold front!

We will have a better idea of what to expect by this weekend (especially on whether or not winter precip. will be possible), but for now it looks like at the minimum that this front will bring the coolest air of the season.

[Extremeweatherguy]

the 0Z GFS shows a low temperature of 29F in Houston next Friday morning and 25F next Saturday morning (with highs Friday likely not getting out of the 30s or 40s)! For SE Texas that is some COLD early December weather, and in north Texas it will probably be even colder...lows in the teens?

[ETXHAMXYL]

wow that is Cold...did they mention if this was slow to move out? hang around or is this just a coaster ride of 70's 40's and back up again to 70"s I guess what I mean is this a pattern type change or just a one quick shot?

[Extremeweatherguy]

wow that is Cold...did they mention if this was slow to move out? hang around or is this just a coaster ride of 70's 40's and back up again to 70"s I guess what I mean is this a pattern type change or just a one quick shot?

JB thinks it will last a few days, but then move out (not really a pattern change). He still thinks we are in a fairly progressive pattern and that the cold will likely not be able to hold. However, more shots of cold are possible throughout the month (though overall we will probably average out to near normal temperatures). December will probably be one big coaster ride this year...with a possible pattern change to more cold than warm by January.

The models also show this arctic blast next week as being quick to move on out after a 2-3 day cold stretch.

[cheezyWXguy]

Weather.com puts us in plano with a high of 48 and a low of 30 on thursday i think...the night before it shows a 40% chance of precip and a low of 32!

[Extremeweatherguy]

wow! The European model has 850mb temps. over Houston down to 28F by the EVENING of Thursday November 30th! That makes me wonder how cold it brings the city to being overnight! With perfect radiational cooling a hard freeze would be likely! Brrr...

It also really dries out the upper atmosphere at that point with humidities at 850mb and 700mb down below 5%!

The 6Z GFS is also cold and shows the potential for 3 freezing nights in Houston, with two of those nights possibly featuring a hard freeze.

[cheezyWXguy]

The temps have been been forecasted down and down for thursday...noaa.gov thinks ill be havin a high at 46! I can wait to see the low temp on there...if it keeps going down, i may see highs in the 30's!

Ok uhh...actually i think im just freakin out...but noaa does have a high of 46 so its definately gonna get cold

[Extremeweatherguy]

I slightly edited my post above, because I realized I was looking at an 850mb chart for Euro temps. and I am not sure what surface temps. will be. Either way though, If we get good radiational cooling then the overnight will be cold!

[Below N.O.]

There should be a good snow laid down in the upper plains and mid-west that will help sustain and transport these colder temperatures as they move south. I don't think the models have a good handle on just how cold and how far south this air mass will move just yet.

Below N.O.

[Extremeweatherguy]

There should be a good snow laid down in the upper plains and mid-west that will help sustain and transport these colder temperatures as they move south. I don't think the models have a good handle on just how cold and how far south this air mass will move just yet.

Below N.O.

the latest GFS shows a period of sleet, freezing rain and snow near Houston Friday morning moving into LA during the day. The scary thing though, like you said, is that it will probably be even colder. If it is, then a band of snow (instead of a mix) could possibly bring us all a nice white start to winter.

[double D]

yes, it looks like a blue norther may be on the way. According to JB, the upper plains will likely struggle to get out of the teens late next week, and Denver may struggle to get above 0F. He also said that freezing temps. with wind would likely reach I-20 or I-10 in Texas during a day late next week (and I believe he meant for highs...though I am not 100% sure). If he is right, then this will be a record-setting cold blast for sure (comparable to the one last Dec. 7th - 9th). Could be quite a cold front!

We will have a better idea of what to expect by this weekend (especially on whether or not winter precip. will be possible), but for now it looks like at the minimum that this front will bring the coolest air of the season.

I wouldn't be surprised if places north of I-20 did not get above freezing but places along 1-10, I'm not so sure of. With a 1050 high to our west, I think it will be a lot colder than the GFS is advertising.

[Extremeweatherguy]

This is what JB is saying this morning:

-This will be the greatest November temperature reversal in 50 years (or at least in the top 5).

-Temps. in Nebraska and Oklahoma will be 40-60F colder than today is.

-Temps. in Texas and Ohio valley up to 30-50F colder than what the warmest readings will be over the next few days.

-26F to 32F possible in I-10 corridor Thursday night with wind! Then Friday night without wind. <<And that is the I-10 corridor. Just imagine how much colder it will be to the north.

[double D]

Just think how cold this would be if it were late December or early January.

Regardless, this is one impressive cold air mass coming down in the U.S.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Just think how cold this would be if it were late December or early January.

Regardless, this is one impressive cold air mass coming down in the U.S.

VERY true! Instead of 26-32F with wind...in ealry January it would probably be 16-22F with wind along the I-10 corridor.

[JonathanBelles]

this is going to be a trend i believe

[Extremeweatherguy]

the cold trend continues on the GFS. The 12Z run still looks VERY cold (and it is actually a little faster too. The front reaches us earlier than on the 6Z run, and is more in line with the EURO.):

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_138m.gif
^^Early Thursday morning the front should be sweeping through with severe weather. Notice the GFS also still paints a 1050+mb high! Temperatures quickly drop below 50F behind the front for all of Texas and by by about 12-1am Thursday the panhandle and parts of north Texas should be below freezing.^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_144m.gif
^^By about daybreak Thursday all of North Texas is below freezing and SE Texas is in the 30s and 40s with wind (1053mb+ high)^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_150m.gif
^^Temperatures still in the 30s and 40s by mid afternoon Thursday^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_162m.gif
^^By about 12am (midnight) Friday morning, most of the northern 2/3rds of Texas is below freezing with breezy winds still along the coast (low windchills). 850mb temps. fall below freezing all the way down to Brownsville. The high pressure to our west is still a respectable 1044-1046mb at this point.^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_168m.gif
^^Most of the state of TX is below freezing by daybreak Friday morning. Unlike earlier runs, there is now no winter precipitation in the state though. ^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_174m.gif
^^Fri. afternoon should stay below 50F. However, I think it is way too warm still. The 1053mb+ high seems to have weakened unrealistically fast (all the way down to 1034mb).^^

After hour 174, however, the model goes crazy, moves the cold air out way too quick, weakens the strong high unrealistically and warms us up way too rapidly. The GFS is still having a few problems it seems. The above guidance is also still likely a bit too warm. However, it does still indicate the same general trend of CHILLY weather to end next week.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Check this out! (from the CPC)



Texas is under both the cold snap AND the strong winds area! I wonder if this means that we are going to get another tropical storm force wind event?

[Johnny]

What caused the strong winds with that other front? Weren't they coming off the backside of a very strong low pressure system across the plains? Are the models currently forecasting a strong low pressure system to form along the blue norther next week?

[TS Zack]

The winds will not be as strong as a few weeks ago. There will be no surface low to tighten the gradient. Still a 1054mb High will be building in, leading to winds 15-25mph with gusts to 35mph.

Very progressive pattern in place across the country, I do not see a big pattern change until late this month.