getting cold next week

Opal storm · #1 Postby **Opal storm** » Thu Nov 16, 2006 9:56 pm

Our AFD from Mobile mentioned a upper low off the Atlantic coastal states that will push some pretty cold weather our way.I'm looking at some of the forecasts for my area from the nws and local mets and it looks to be very cold for Mon-Tues with highs in the 50's and lows in the 30's and even some 20's.One of our local channels has Pensacola getting down to 33 on Tuesday!I hope this actually pans out.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS OFF
THE EAST COAST AND THE SURFACE RIDGE GRADUALLY WORKS IN FROM THE
WEST WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS OR WIND EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL TO RADIATE DOWN INTO THE LOWER 30S OVER
SOME INLAND SITES IS A CONSIDERATION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...A SHORTWAVE DRIVING DOWN THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL BRING ANOTHER FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE 00Z GFS AND THE 00Z CANADIAN GEM MODELS
DEEPEN AN UPPER LOW OFF THE ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES AND THIS BRINGS
SOME COOLER AIR DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH NEXT
WEDNESDAY. THE 00Z GFS WENT SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER OVER THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND IS A BIG DEPARTURE FROM THE PREVIOUS
RUNS. HOWEVER...THE 00Z GEM BACKS UP THE GFS WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. WHEN CONSIDERING THAT THE MODEL KEEPS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED OVER OUR AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WE
OPTED TO GO 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE MUCH COLDER 00Z MEX NUMBERS FOR
MIN TEMPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. IF THE COLD ADVECTION PATTERN HOLDS
AS ADVERTISED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE MAX TEMPS COULD SORT OF
WORK OUT. WE WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT IT ON TOMORROW`S FORECAST
AND SEE HOW THINGS START TO PAN OUT. OTHERWISE...WE SEE A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST PERIOD. /05

#2 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Thu Nov 16, 2006 9:59 pm

we're supposed to see 44 here monday night.

Extremeweatherguy · #3 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Nov 16, 2006 10:25 pm

one crazy thing I am noticing is the 0Z NAM! Is it showing SNOW FLURRIES in the Florida Panhandle next Monday morning?!?!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _084.shtml

How crazy would that be for November!

#4 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Thu Nov 16, 2006 10:59 pm

that would be awesome!

boca · #5 Postby **boca** » Fri Nov 17, 2006 12:04 am

If thats the case I'll road trip up there from South Florida.

Sean in New Orleans · #6 Postby **Sean in New Orleans** » Fri Nov 17, 2006 12:14 am

Bob Breck, on Fox 8, in New Orleans said that we need to prepare our pipes and get ready for running water in New Orleans in two weeks, night before last. I was shocked he would go out that far...

Opal storm · #7 Postby **Opal storm** » Fri Nov 17, 2006 4:20 pm

Our local station WEAR now has Pensacola getting down to 30 Monday morning!If that were to happen it would be crazy,usually Pensacola doesn't see a freeze until mid December.And the NWS is trending down on forecasts lows for the area.

one crazy thing I am noticing is the 0Z NAM! Is it showing SNOW FLURRIES in the Florida Panhandle next Monday morning?!?!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _084.shtml

How crazy would that be for November!

Well,the NWS does mention a very slight chance for precip on Monday.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE GLOBAL MODELS (NAMELY THE
GFS AND ECMWF) CONTINUE TO DEEPEN A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW NEAR THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE 12 UTC RUN OF THE GFS HAS THE AXIS OF THE LOW
A BIT FARTHER EAST...JUST OFF THE FLORIDA COAST OVER THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS TUESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SOLUTION HAS THE AXIS OF THE LOW NEAR
MIAMI. REGARDLESS...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER A DEEP NORTHERLY
FLOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHILE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
EVOLVES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS LOOKS TO BE
DRIER EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH THE MORE EASTWARD POSITION OF THE LOW.
BUT FOR CONTINUITY...WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE
FAR EASTERN ZONES ON MONDAY AS THERE COULD BE A SLIM POSSIBILITY OF
GETTING SOME MOISTURE SQUEEZED OUT BY UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING INTO
THE MEAN TROF POSITION. OVERALL...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF PRECIPITATION IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AS FORECAST AREA WILL BE
DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT. WILL NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES. /10

Extremeweatherguy · #8 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Nov 17, 2006 4:26 pm

latest forecasts for some places in the FL panhandle are calling for lower 30s with a chance of rain Monday night. You guys will likely be right on the edge of possibly getting a little bit of wintery precip (sleet or snow).

BTW, this cold should also spill into Central Florida where highs should stay in the 50s in Orlando on Tuesday.

#9 Postby **gboudx** » Fri Nov 17, 2006 4:41 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:latest forecasts for some places in the FL panhandle are calling for lower 30s with a chance of rain Monday night. You guys will likely be right on the edge of possibly getting a little bit of wintery precip (sleet or snow).

BTW, this cold should also spill into Central Florida where highs should stay in the 50s in Orlando on Tuesday.

Yeah, I've been checking the forecasts for Orlando since we'll be in Disney next week. We started with packing shorts and short-sleeved shirts, but now it's jeans and a light jacket. I'd rather it be this way than too warm.

#10 Postby **O Town** » Fri Nov 17, 2006 6:57 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:latest forecasts for some places in the FL panhandle are calling for lower 30s with a chance of rain Monday night. You guys will likely be right on the edge of possibly getting a little bit of wintery precip (sleet or snow).

BTW, this cold should also spill into Central Florida where highs should stay in the 50s in Orlando on Tuesday.

Yeah I know. I don't like it one bit, first 3 days of next week look to be very cold for Nov. in central FL. Brrrrrr. I am smoking a turkey all night on Wed. I guess it will need a few more hours with those tempatures.

#11 Postby **MGC** » Fri Nov 17, 2006 7:07 pm

I don't see how Bob Breck can make such a statement two weeks out. I remember last winter that the models were showing massive artic outbreaks for the deep south that never happened. Sure hope the cold kills off some of these *@&@^@) bugs though.....MGC

WhiteShirt · #12 Postby **WhiteShirt** » Fri Nov 17, 2006 7:25 pm

Sean in New Orleans wrote:Bob Breck, on Fox 8, in New Orleans said that we need to prepare our pipes and get ready for running water in New Orleans in two weeks, night before last. I was shocked he would go out that far...

I hope that affects us in Southeast Texas!

Extremeweatherguy · #13 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Nov 17, 2006 8:25 pm

WhiteShirt wrote:
Sean in New Orleans wrote:Bob Breck, on Fox 8, in New Orleans said that we need to prepare our pipes and get ready for running water in New Orleans in two weeks, night before last. I was shocked he would go out that far...

I hope that affects us in Southeast Texas!

in two weeks? lol. I can't believe he is already giving a forecast like that 2 weeks out.

Aquawind · #14 Postby **Aquawind** » Sat Nov 18, 2006 1:46 am

I am surprised!

I love it!! 8-)

Opal storm · #15 Postby **Opal storm** » Sat Nov 18, 2006 9:58 am

From Tallahassee NWS office

MONDAY...ONE OF THE COOLEST DAYS OF THE FALL SEASON THUS FAR. WITH
THE DEEPENING TROF LIKELY TO BE NEARLY OVERHEAD AND WITH STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW...TEMPS WILL BE STRUGGLING TO GET INTO THE MID 50S.
WINDS COULD BE QUITE STRONG. WILL BE ADVERTISING 15 TO 18 KNOTS BY
AFTERNOON HOURS OVER LAND. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE TROF...DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DECREASE IN EACH RUN AND THEREFORE THE
CHANCE OF RAIN HAS BEEN LOWERED AT THIS TIME TO A SILENT 10 POP.

&&

cajungal · #16 Postby **cajungal** » Sat Nov 18, 2006 10:53 am

I really hope it snows again this winter for SE Louisiana. Even though the chances are remote. I will never forget Christmas 2004 where it looked like lace falling from the sky. So beautiful.

WhiteShirt · #17 Postby **WhiteShirt** » Sat Nov 18, 2006 12:59 pm

cajungal wrote:I really hope it snows again this winter for SE Louisiana. Even though the chances are remote. I will never forget Christmas 2004 where it looked like lace falling from the sky. So beautiful.

I'm hoping and praying for snow again this year for Christmas. It can happen again...no matter what the odds are.

Opal storm · #18 Postby **Opal storm** » Sun Nov 19, 2006 10:32 am

BRRR...the cold has already arrived! Right now it's 48 degrees with winds gusting to 25mph.The next couple of nights will be the coldest nights of the season so far,there may be some freeze advisories for tonight or tomorrow night.

Opal storm · #19 Postby **Opal storm** » Sun Nov 19, 2006 3:44 pm

Freeze watch now for portions of N Florida.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
334 PM EST SUN NOV 19 2006

...A FREEZE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND FOR INLAND COUNTIES OF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN BIG BEND...

Update=The freeze watch has been extended weststward...

...A FREEZE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR INLAND AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA
AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

Mobile NWS AFD
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...PRIMARILY A
TEMPERATURE FCST DURING THE SHORT TERM AS FCST AREA WILL BE LOCATED
BETWEEN RIDGING TO THE WEST AND DEVELOPING STRONG LOW PRESSURE JUST
OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION. THIS SCENARIO WILL RESULT
IN INCREASING CAA OVER THE FCST AREA THIS PERIOD. WITH THIS...HAVE
ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR MONDAY NIGHT FOR ALL ZONES EXCEPT FOR THE
FIVE IMMEDIATE COASTAL ZONES. A FEW AREAS ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA HAVE ALREADY EXPERIENCED SHORT
LIVED...LIGHT FREEZES DURING THE PAST MONTH. HOWEVER...THIS AIRMASS
WILL BRING THE COLDEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES OF AT OR
BELOW FREEZING SO FAR THIS SEASON. SEVERAL HOURS OF AT OR BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS INLAND AREAS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
CURRENT TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER THAN MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE INTERIOR ZONES...
SO THOSE WITH COLD SENSITIVE PLANTS SHOULD ANTICIPATE A WIDESPREAD
LIGHT FREEZE BOTH NIGHTS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BELOW CLIMO NORMS
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...BUT COULD SEE SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN ZONES...FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS STRONG LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. /12

cpdaman · #20 Postby **cpdaman** » Sun Nov 19, 2006 10:46 pm

currently 46.5 degrees at 1045 pm in nw wellington fl (15 miles west of west palm beach w/ clear skies and calm winds.

i can see my breath

the dew point is 43/44 so i don't think it can go much lower here

getting cold next week

getting cold next week

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