SE TX weather thread #4 - Severe weather Fri/Sat

[Extremeweatherguy]

Latest 0Z GFS is now much warmer on Tuesday morning (though likely still in the 30s), which I find a bit odd considering it has the strong high placed RIGHT OVER SE Texas during that period. This could just be a brief error, so I will not buy into it that much until the 12Z also joins in. The NWS forecasts and model runs this weekend should be very interesting to see whether or not a freeze actually does play out next week.

BTW: Though the model shows Monday night slightly warmer, it also seems to show Sunday night slightly cooler. This, in the end, could lead to both nights having similar low temps.

[Extremeweatherguy]

well the NWS has raised the forecast low on Monday night to 39F. This has got to be one of their greatest 24 hr. shifts ever. Yesterday at this time they were calling for 30F and a "widespread freeze"..today they are calling for near 40F.

Beaumont, however, is still calling for 34F, Lufkin for 32F and Victoria for 38F. Hopefully they end up more correct than Houston and our NWS has to adjust the temps. lower again.

[jasons2k]

Hopefully not. 40 is just fine for me. Colder than that and you just have to run the furnace a lot more, etc.

Looks like the NWS bit into those runs a bit too early. The setup isn't quite right for near record cold just yet. With the upper flow shifting to SW later on it looks like we will thankfully have to wait until the very end of the month or possibly December for our first freeze.

[KatDaddy]

This is perfect Houston weather. Its going to be perfect weather through Thanksgiving. I however remember some not so nice Thanksgiving weather like the 1992 tornado outbreak.

http://www.stormtrack.org/library/1992/houston.htm

[Yankeegirl]

As long as Houston is Cool on Thanksgiving, I am cool with it.... I hate turning on the a/c just to cook a turkey!!

[Extremeweatherguy]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
205 PM CST SAT NOV 18 2006

.DISCUSSION...
INHERITED A GOOD FCST PACKAGE AND DON`T PLAN ON MAKING ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES...MAINLY JUST BUMPING UP OVERNIGHT LOWS TOWARD
NEXT WEEKEND DUE TO A PROLONGED ONSHORE FLOW.

OTHERWISE FCST REASONING REMAINS PRETTY MUCH THE SAME. WEAK
REINFORCING FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SURFACE HIGH
WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THRU THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK PROVIDING
MCLEAR SKIES WITH COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS AND PLEASANT AFTERNOON HIGHS.
SFC HIGH SHOULD PUSH EAST BY MIDWEEK WITH A SLOW MODIFYING TREND
BEGINNING.

FURTHER ALOFT...500 MB PATTERN CONSISTS OF AN EAST COAST TROF AND
WEST COAST RIDGE WITH TX CAUGHT IN BETWEEN AND UNDER THE DRY N & NW
FLOW. BOTH THE TROF AND RIDGE SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD THRU THE WEEK.
AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE MAKES IT WAY TOWARD THE SE STATES LATE IN THE
WEEK...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SW. WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE SWRLIES
COMBINES WITH INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS TO BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK
INTO THE PICTURE SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND. 47

BTW: The latest Thanksgiving forecast is calling for highs in the mid 70s and lows in the mid 50s with partly sunny skies. Looks nice!

[JenBayles]

Mid 70's is still too darn high for Thanksgiving, IMHO. Just once I'd like to have a real nasty norther roll through with cold, cloudy, even rainy rainy weather for Thanksgiving. Tell me you don't have a better appetite when it's cold and crappy outside? I'm with you on this one Yankee - turning on the AC just to cook a turkey inhales mightily.

We've spent the last 2 days cleaning up from the windstorm damage. Tomorrow we tackle the huge pile of palm fronds from our neighbors trees. $&%! them anyway. I tried to get started on that yesterday and neglected to put on gloves. After about the 4th frond, I realized my hands were bleeding all over everything from multiple stab wounds. The stems have some really nasty thorns. Just give me one more reason to despise those things.

[KatDaddy]

Hey Jen lets hope for a Houston snowfall this Winter. The coastal snowstorm of Christmas 2004 was an anomaly which does not count. I think its time for Houston proper as averages go. 1989 followed by 1997.....its time.

[Yankeegirl]

Totally agree with ta Kat on this one!!! Ya never know with this Houston weather!!

[Extremeweatherguy]

the 0z GFS now looks colder again for Monday night:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _060.shtml

it is showing the freeze line yet again reaching parts of east TX.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looks like a freeze may be back on! The latest 12Z GFS shows IAH at 35F Tuesday morning...meaning places like Hooks and Conroe could be right near the freezing mark. We will have to see how the NWS addresses this in their afternoon update.

[Extremeweatherguy]

---I deleted this post---

[JenBayles]

KatDaddy - wasn't 1989 the year we had that fast-freeze that killed a lot of the fish in Galveston Bay? If it's the year I remember, we had a morning low of like 8 or 9 degrees. Felt like I was back in Kansas again! Since so many peeps were out of town, we had busted pipes all over the city. I noticed that housing contruction changed after that event and the idiotic idea of placing hot water heaters in attics just kind of melted away.

You got more of the snow than we did here in west Houston, but it was still one of the best Christmas presents I've ever had. One for the record books alrighty! I was cooking up a storm that day, and felt like a kid again watching the snow swirling in the dim afternoon light. Aaaahhhh!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here is the latest update from the NWS for tomorrow night in north Houston:

Monday Night: Clear, with a low around 35. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

[Yankeegirl]

I wasnt here yet in 1989... I just missed that storm, I moved here in March of 1989, my dad was here looking for a house, and he told me about it... I still am wishing for a cooler Thanksgiving... I am dredding cooking and turning on the a/c!!!

[KatDaddy]

Yes I believe that was the freeze that killed all the fish. It was in the 70s the evening before the Artic blast and 18F at 8AM the next morning with snow.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I was not here at the time of the Dec. 1989 event, but here is some info. I found on it:

From the NWS:

-DECEMBER OF 1989 WAS THE COLDEST MONTH IN HISTORY FOR GALVESTON... HOUSTON AND COLLEGE STATION.

-ON DECEMBER 22 1989...HOUSTON RECEIVED 1.7 INCHES OF SNOW WHILE GALVESTON RECEIVED AN INCH; IT WAS THE LAST MEASURABLE SNOW FOR EACH LOCATION (until 2004 that is)

-COLDEST DECEMBER TEMPERATURES EVER RECORDED ACROSS THE AREA. ON DECEMBER 23 1989...COLLEGE STATION HAD A LOW OF 2 DEGREES...HOUSTON HAD A LOW OF 7 DEGREES AND GALVESTON HAD A LOW TEMPERATURE OF 14 DEGREES

Here is a picture of the snow from http://members.aol.com/IslandWx/jbclimo ... onsnow.htm :

[Extremeweatherguy]

Just for fun...check out the 18Z run of the GFS on day 12:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _288.shtml

If this were to play out, most of TX would be in the middle of a serious winter storm on December 1st!

How crazy would THAT be to start off the winter season?

[Yankeegirl]

I dunno, but I am going to keep my fingers crossed!!!!


...and just to let ya know, I have no earthly clue how to read those maps... if anyone wants to teach me, that would be cool too!!

[Portastorm]

Just for fun...check out the 18Z run of the GFS on day 12:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _288.shtml

If this were to play out, most of TX would be in the middle of a serious winter storm on December 1st!

How crazy would THAT be to start off the winter season?

Now you're talking EWG ... that sure was fun to look at!! That would be one wild weather scenario for us ...