DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1157 PM CST TUE NOV 14 2006
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
..THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SERN LA
THE SRN 2/3 OF
MS AND AL...THE FL PANHANDLE...AND W CENTRAL AND SWRN GA...
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ALL OF THE SOUTHEAST
..SYNOPSIS
UPPER LOW INITIALLY OVER ERN OK -- WITHIN LARGE TROUGH OVER THE ERN
2/3 OF THE CONUS -- IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE
TN VALLEY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD...INCLUDING A 60 KT
SSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE LOW AND 100-PLUS KT CYCLONIC
MID-LEVEL JET S OF LOW.
AT THE SURFACE...990 MB LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM AR NEWD ACROSS
THE MID MS VALLEY INTO KY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE TRAILING COLD
FRONT MOVES QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THOUGH THE GFS IS
FASTER WITH THE EWD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT...MODELS AGREE THAT THE
FRONT SHOULD AT LEAST APPROACH THE GA ATLANTIC COAST BY 16/12Z.
..THE SOUTHEAST
POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIS PERIOD...THOUGH QUESTIONS REGARDING DEGREE
OF INSTABILITY LINGER.
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF
THE SOUTHEAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITHIN BROAD ZONE OF WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. MUCH OF THIS CONVECTION --
PARTICULARLY ACROSS TN/AL/GA -- SHOULD BE ELEVATED. HOWEVER...VERY
STRONG WIND FIELD SUGGESTS AN ONGOING SEVERE THREAT AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD IN AND NEAR THE WARM SECTOR -- I.E. ACROSS SERN AR AND LA
INTO MUCH OF MS AND SWRN AL.
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION...WHILE HINDERING THE NWD MOVEMENT OF
THE TROPICAL WARM FRONT. THEREFORE...NWD EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT
TOWARD THE TN VALLEY IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE ATTM. HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS THAT MOIST GULF AIR WILL MOVE AT LEAST AS FAR NWD AS NRN
MS/CENTRAL AL...AND LATER INTO W CENTRAL AND SWRN GA.
THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGHEST SEVERE PROBABILITIES ACROSS
THIS REGION.
STORM MODE WILL LIKELY BE A MIX OF PRE-FRONTAL SUPERCELLS AND A
COMPLEX LINE -- INCLUDING BOWS AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS -- ROUGHLY
ALONG FRONT. GIVEN STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...
SEVERAL TORNADOES ARE
EXPECTED -- INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL THAT A FEW WILL BE
STRONG/SIGNIFICANT. WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ALSO APPEAR POSSIBLE
-- AS INCREASINGLY-MERIDIONAL FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF LOW/INVOF FRONT
SUPPORTS A MORE ORGANIZED LINE LATER IN THE PERIOD.
THOUGH A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN SEVERE THREAT MAY EXIST OVER CENTRAL
AND NRN GA WHERE DESTABILIZATION WILL LIKELY BE MORE
DIFFICULT...SELY INFLOW OF HIGHER THETA-E BOUNDARY LAYER OFF THE
ATLANTIC MAY SUPPORT A SECONDARY SEVERE WEATHER MAXIMUM LATE IN THE
PERIOD ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF GA AND THE CAROLINAS.
..GOSS.. 11/15/2006
http://kamala.cod.edu/SPC/latest.acus01.KWNS.html
)
I hope the buoys in the GOM are prepared for the slight to moderate severe weather risk!
.