Major solar flare

[Jim Hughes]

It looked for a moment like we were going to see our first X-Class flare since last September occur a short time ago but it seems to have fallen a little short.

The M7.9 flare peaked about ten minutes ago at 1552z. This flare most likely originated from Region 875. Of course no particulars are in yet so it's hard to say what accompanied this event. I would not be surprised about an eruption. It's location makes us vulnerable but I would be rather surprised if it was big enough to cause any type of severe storming.

The sun's magnetic field does not seem like it currently wants to expel any large CME's right now. But this is just an opinion of the recent trend during the past 4-6 months. It has to wake up again sometime though.

I will post something later after I look over LASCO images as well as the particulars.


Jim

[Aslkahuna]

It was in region 875. It was fairly radio quiet however with no bursts over 100 sfu so based upon that I doubt that we had any CME from it or any other energetic activity. The magnetic fields in 875 are complex but hard to say how strong they are and what the magentic shear is like.

Steve

[Jim Hughes]

The recent trend involving solar eruptions, even DSF's have had minimal particle increases. ACE EPAM data hardly ever shows any electron increases at the higher levels. Just goes to show how important the IMF is here. It is different now and this shows up in the particle readings after eruptions. Or lack there of I should say. So we have have low sfu bursts and no SWEEPS with a M7.9



Jim

[Aslkahuna]

Well we are getting close to min so the fields are in the process of reversing and winding up again as we enter the new cycle. I've seen guesstimates that Cycle 24 could have R numbers 50% higher than 23 which would mean around 180 mean monthly at peak which is in the same realm as cycles 18 and 19.

Steve

[gigabite]

Apr
27 19:46 NEW MOON
May
4 15 Jupiter at Opposition

[Jim Hughes]

This was the storngest x-ray flare since September 15th, 2005.



Jim

[Theo]

This was the storngest x-ray flare since September 15th, 2005.



Jim

Yes, I've been monitoring it as well. There's been some correlation between comets and the Sun's flare activity being observed. Moreover, as we are now in the Sun's minima cycle, and expecting a new Maxima cycle to begin in 2007 and peak by 2011 - we should be seeing some interesting weather times ahead for the Earth.

[Jim Hughes]

This was the storngest x-ray flare since September 15th, 2005.



Jim

Yes, I've been monitoring it as well. There's been some correlation between comets and the Sun's flare activity being observed. Moreover, as we are now in the Sun's minima cycle, and expecting a new Maxima cycle to begin in 2007 and peak by 2011 - we should be seeing some interesting weather times ahead for the Earth.

I agree with your assessment about 2007 being minimum. Not 100% sure about 2011 being maximum. I had thought for a long time that July 2007 would be minimum. A rise to maximum of less than 3 1/2 years would put it somewhere in 2010. I need to look things over better.

Been talking allot more lately about our first big breakout of solar activity occurring in early November of this year. This might end up being the key. Or at least a tell tale clue.


Jim

[Theo]

This was the storngest x-ray flare since September 15th, 2005.



Jim

Yes, I've been monitoring it as well. There's been some correlation between comets and the Sun's flare activity being observed. Moreover, as we are now in the Sun's minima cycle, and expecting a new Maxima cycle to begin in 2007 and peak by 2011 - we should be seeing some interesting weather times ahead for the Earth.

I agree with your assessment about 2007 being minimum. Not 100% sure about 2011 being maximum. I had thought for a long time that July 2007 would be minimum. A rise to maximum of less than 3 1/2 years would put it somewhere in 2010. I need to look things over better.

Been talking allot more lately about our first big breakout of solar activity occurring in early November of this year. This might end up being the key. Or at least a tell tale clue.

Jim

I agree Jim. What is going to be most interesting as well are the transits of Jupiter and Saturn relative to the Earth-Sun positions around 2010-2011. Both Jupiter and Saturn will perform oppositions to one another, and this arrives during a solar maxima, according to calculations. I expect geomagnetic activity to cause problems and the IMF to become active due to the Sun's coming maxima cycle. The Earth's magnetic field has had a little time to strengthen after a very strong Solar cycle, but the coming solar maxima starting either later this year, or in 2007, will bring some interesting data our way concerning flare activity.

[Jim Hughes]

You can see that I talk about an upcoming increase in November 2006 if you look at my earlier statements above from April 29th in this thread.

It looks like things might be getting a little interesting on the sun. It remains to be seen if my earlier forecast was correct or not. I thought we could see a EKC/FKC sunspot region, with a size of about 1,000 millionths, during November. I also thought that there was a very strong chance of us seeing a major flare.

My research pointed toward the time frame of the 10th-24th. I might have been off a little since things are starting to take shape already.

There is currently a moderate size beta-gamma group on the solar surace in the SE hemisphere. It has been growing the past couple of days but it still has a long way to go to reach the above mentioned size. Last nights update had it at 270 millionths. The solar flaring has been extremely low and it has been nowhere near major status.

Plenty of time though. Lets see what happens.

[gigabite]

NOTE: The planetary gravitational influence that is demonstrated by the solar cycle maximum is normally after Jupiter’s perihelion, because that is when the centrifugal force of Jupiter’s orbit and the gravitational interaction between Jupiter and the Sun oppose each other more coronal mass is pulled from the Sun.

[JonathanBelles]

ahubitawhat?

[gigabite]

= dynamics of deformable bodies, ie

http://home.att.net/~study06/study06.htm

[Jim Hughes]

Solar flaring has increased somewhat during the past 48 hours. It still has a ways to go to if I am going to be correct. But at east it is heading in the right direction. A strong C-Class level SF occurred a little over an hour ago. There have been four C-Class flares during the past 48 hours and five altogether for the month. We saw none during the month of October and five in September.

Let me be perfectly clear here. C-CLass flares are nowhere near as strong as M and X-CLass flares. So the activity level has to pick up signficantly.

[gigabite]

There was a little blip when mercury and venus aligned.
The big kickers are on the other side of the sun.

2006-11-07 13:38:00

PLANET…Right Ascension Declination distance from earth
Mercury….15h 1m 50s…….-17° 46.3'……0.674
Venus…….15h 1m 50s…….-16° 32.1'……1.712

inner planets

FOURMLAB

xray plot

sec.noaa.gov

these links are short term.

THERE IS A GOOD SIZE SUN SPOT COMING AROUND, IS THAT THE EAST LIMB?

[Jim Hughes]

There was a little blip when mercury and venus aligned.
The big kickers are on the other side of the sun.

2006-11-07 13:38:00

PLANET…Right Ascension Declination distance from earth
Mercury….15h 1m 50s…….-17° 46.3'……0.674
Venus…….15h 1m 50s…….-16° 32.1'……1.712

inner planets

FOURMLAB

xray plot

sec.noaa.gov

these links are short term.

THERE IS A GOOD SIZE SUN SPOT COMING AROUND, IS THAT THE EAST LIMB?

Yes I know Steve. I am aware of how the planets were interacting. I used their upcoming interactions and location in my forecast. I also considered the cylical nature of certain things and the harmonic sub cycles.

I definitely agree with you about the backside being more active. Region 923 seems to have simplified as it has rotated into view. It's current state is not overwhemingly impressive and it just goes to show how large eruptions can effect a region so quickly at this stage of the sunspot cycle.

It still could become more magnetically complexed again so I will be patient. Time is on my side. At last while it's on the visible side.

BTW that is the eastern limb.

[gigabite]

As near as I can tell 923 is accompanied by the largest INITIAL sunspot area that has developed this year, and that area is growing at a high rate.

http://www.astro.ucla.edu/~obs/cur_mag_na1.html

[Jim Hughes]

As near as I can tell 923 is accompanied by the largest INITIAL sunspot area that has developed this year, and that area is growing at a high rate.

http://www.astro.ucla.edu/~obs/cur_mag_na1.html

Well it's a unipolar group and from that angle it is large but it's not the largest sunspot region this year. Region's 865 and 904 were both larger and maybe even Region 875.

Like I mentioned yesterday the magnetic complexity is currently not that impressive and a more favorable limb proximity has given us better magnetograms to look at. This region needs to change it's complexion or it will be end up being just another moderate size dud.

[gigabite]

Yes I see where 904 grew to be a little larger

2006 08 09 74 25 110 1 - 904 +/-
2006 08 10 80 37 310 0
2006 08 11 84 39 650 0
2006 08 12 85 27 750 0
2006 08 13 86 26 680 0
2006 08 14 86 45 700 0
2006 08 15 86 32 700 0
2006 08 16 86 29 600 0
2006 08 17 86 26 590 0

2006 11 08 86 38 390 1 - 923
2006 11 09 89 29 520 0

But it came around as 110 10^-6 Hemispheres
when 923 came around it was 390 10^-6 hemispheres

My point here is not to dispute your claims. I realize you have been observing the Sun longer than I have.

I am simply trying to show a relationship between the gravitational impact on the Sun’s corona a highly fluid surface and water vapor on earth. I don’t know the link you are using to state your claim.

This movie shown a circular structure on the sun shortly after the alignment of Venus Mercury and Earth

http://home.att.net/~gigabite/923movie.gif

This Image shows a circular structure just before an 6.6 magnitude earthquake on Hawaii in October 2006.

http://home.att.net/~gigabite/mag66HawaiiIR.gif

I believe that there is a
HIGH PROBABILITY OF SEVER EARTHQUAKE POTENTIAL
(STRESS NEEDS TO BE PRE EXISTING)

There is a lot of earthquake activity at east 180 south 40, and at Novembers New Moon there will be more than 1 percent more force than a normal transit of the Moon.

2006-11-20 17:18:00UTC
Sun 15h 43m 56s -19° 46.1'
Mercury 14h 32m 18s -12° 25.6'
Venus 16h 9m 9s -20° 53.3'
Moon 15h 29m 24s -23° 34.0'
Mars 15h 6m 59s -17° 23.9'
Jupiter 15h 48m 43s -19° 16.7'

AT DATA POINT 62
http://home.att.net/~study06/study06.htm

A MAGNITUDE 8 EARTHQUAKE PRECEDED THE DECEMBER 26, 2004 SAMARIAN EARTHQUAKE.

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/eqi ... 04/ussjal/

[Jim Hughes]

Yes I see where 904 grew to be a little larger

2006 08 09 74 25 110 1 - 904 +/-
2006 08 10 80 37 310 0
2006 08 11 84 39 650 0
2006 08 12 85 27 750 0
2006 08 13 86 26 680 0
2006 08 14 86 45 700 0
2006 08 15 86 32 700 0
2006 08 16 86 29 600 0
2006 08 17 86 26 590 0

2006 11 08 86 38 390 1 - 923
2006 11 09 89 29 520 0

But it came around as 110 10^-6 Hemispheres
when 923 came around it was 390 10^-6 hemispheres

My point here is not to dispute your claims. I realize you have been observing the Sun longer than I have.

I am simply trying to show a relationship between the gravitational impact on the Sun’s corona a highly fluid surface and water vapor on earth. I don’t know the link you are using to state your claim.

This movie shown a circular structure on the sun shortly after the alignment of Venus Mercury and Earth

http://home.att.net/~gigabite/923movie.gif

This Image shows a circular structure just before an 6.6 magnitude earthquake on Hawaii in October 2006.

http://home.att.net/~gigabite/mag66HawaiiIR.gif

I believe that there is a
HIGH PROBABILITY OF SEVER EARTHQUAKE POTENTIAL
(STRESS NEEDS TO BE PRE EXISTING)

There is a lot of earthquake activity at east 180 south 40, and at Novembers New Moon there will be more than 1 percent more force than a normal transit of the Moon.

2006-11-20 17:18:00UTC
Sun 15h 43m 56s -19° 46.1'
Mercury 14h 32m 18s -12° 25.6'
Venus 16h 9m 9s -20° 53.3'
Moon 15h 29m 24s -23° 34.0'
Mars 15h 6m 59s -17° 23.9'
Jupiter 15h 48m 43s -19° 16.7'

AT DATA POINT 62
http://home.att.net/~study06/study06.htm

A MAGNITUDE 8 EARTHQUAKE PRECEDED THE DECEMBER 26, 2004 SAMARIAN EARTHQUAKE.

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/eqi ... 04/ussjal/

I am basically relying on the same data that you see here. Although I have some other references also. I have been downloading this particular data since 1998 along with several other daily reports.

http://www.sel.noaa.gov/ftpmenu/forecasts/SRS.html

As far as the corona etc... I believe in the conection between it and increased sunspot activty. Or at least the cyclical changes. I have been meaning to talk about this in reference to GW.

I will try and pay attention to your earthquake forecast.