Like a mouse in a mousetrap

[Anonymous]

This morning, we are not seeing much convection developing in association with the BOC low. Not surprising. It's sandwhiched between two big moisture robbers plus an area of shear.



Now, don't be surprised if this tries to organize in the near future. Conditions, in the mean time, are not THAT unfavorable. However, as time goes on the EPAC system and the shortwave will begin to slurp all of the convection away. The shortwave will probably be the big murderer here, and will eventually pull whatever's left up to the north until absoprtion. Am I saying you should take your eyes off of it for good? Of course not. The chances, albeit microscopically small, are still there (I think).

[Rainband]

I agree check out the tampa bay area radar loop..it exploded with convection in a matter of 1/2 hour of looking at it..notta then boom..This is from the shortwave I take it???

[cycloneye]

Great explanation in grafics Rob thanks for sharing as it shows all the players involved in this BOC system that will have effects on it.

[Anonymous]

I agree check out the tampa bay area radar loop..it exploded with convection in a matter of 1/2 hour of looking at it..notta then boom..This is from the shortwave I take it???

Yep.

[cycloneye]

Wow Rob I posted at gopbi that nothing is going on at BOC and rapidly came the replies from the prodeveloping people refuting my position but I posted there the truth on what is going on at the BOC and you did the same there but it seems that people at gopbi want development having a single cloud there but here at storm2k we are very different as we talk about the reallity of what is going on in the tropics.

[GulfBreezer]

Wow Rob I posted at gopbi that nothing is going on at BOC and rapidly came the replies from the prodeveloping people refuting my position but I posted there the truth on what is going on at the BOC and you did the same there but it seems that people at gopbi want development having a single cloud there but here at storm2k we are very different as we talk about the reallity of what is going on in the tropics.

This has been the case for a long time.......those of us here would much rather hear logic and fact more than "wishful thinking" and impossible scenarios. Whether this system developes or not is still up in the air (no pun intended) but either way, we will digest the facts as they come in, not create facts that are not there yet.

Thanks for the graphics, they help me to understand!!!!

[wx247]

Great graphic Supercane. You and Luis do a great job of explaining things that are easy to understand. I do have a question... does it look like the area in the EPAC will develop? The convection looks very deep, but haven't had time to check in anything else. My question comes by just looking at that sat. alone.

[Anonymous]

It's a distinct possibility, Garrett. The EPAC disturbance is looking pretty deep already, and is under an area of a lot of instability right now. The only possible inhibitor (other than land interaction) is slight easterly shear driven by the anticyclone to the north. This is why the some of the Tstorm activity looks a bit linear in IR imagery. This should prevent any rapid intensification, though it shouldn't be strong enough to keep it from strengthening at all. If we do see development, a slow drift towards the NW or WNW seems the most probable.

[Colin]

Right now, I'm really not paying attention to the BOC low... for reasons that you specified in your posts- but I'm really paying attention to the EPAC Low... like I said in another post I think that has a WAY better chance of developing than the BOC Low.

[Aquawind]

GREAT Graphics! Awesome posting.