91C.Invest - Very far to the north (42.5 N, 146.5 W)

[Hurricanehink]

Up on NRL. It's really far to the north; 42.5 N and 146.5 W



Here's another, broader view of it.



For its location, it looks very nice. CPAC's TWO should be interesting.

[kevin]

Oh wow, that's incredible.

[P.K.]

NOAA FAX chart shows a 988hPa low at 1200 GMT today. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/nws2.gif

Note - The image on the link updates when there are new charts.

[Hurricanehink]

P.K. do you think there's any chance of it being classified as a tropical or subtropical storm?

[P.K.]

Well it's a long way north and a quick glance at the global models on the Cyclone Phase Analysis page shows they all have it moving NE. Currently the SSTs are in the region of 17C.

[Windspeed]

SSTs are around 15º celcius and drop eastward. This is a nice example of baroclinic forcing for an intensifying surface low that developed under a cold core, mid-latitudinal system. A Nor'easter for the Eestern Pacific, if you will... Nothing really tropical here. It is a very pretty storm though!

[Hurricanehink]

Thanks for the answers. I'm curious, then, how come they put an invest for such a storm?

[P.K.]

Nice TERRA image here from 2 1/2 hours ago. The image is 2.5MB.

[Derek Ortt]

I have to say that that looks like a TC and if it were in the Atlantic, it would have been named by now

Also, that 26 degree SST myth is just that. That is usually the temperature at which surface fluxes between the ocean and atmosphere begin and the temperature that produces enough of a lapse rate to allow for deep convection.But it is not always true

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Thats look like a hurricane to me, wonder if it hits me. That is in my back yard.

[Coredesat]

I pointed this out in another thread, but I didn't think it would become this impressive.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=90926

[Hurricanehink]

Wow, it keeps looking better and better. The eye, or what seems like an eye, is looking pretty good now.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I agree with derek ortt, it does not need to be 26c water to form a cyclone, with the right forcing, and stuff. I wonder when the nhc will upgrade?

[Hurricanehink]

Well, it's CPAC territory, so it's up to them. Unlike the NHC, the CPAC has never started advisories for a storm north of 30º N, although they did re-initiate advisories on Fausto in 2002 while at a decent latitude.

[Coredesat]

From the OPC marine weather bulletin:

...GALE WARNING...
.LOW 43N 147W 990 MB MOVING NE 15 KT. WINDS 25 TO 35 KT SEAS 11
TO 18 FT FROM 43N TO 50N BETWEEN 134W AND 152W. ELSEWHERE WINDS
20 TO 30 KT SEAS 10 TO 16 FT WITHIN 540 NM S SEMICIRCLE.
.24 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WITH MEAN POSITION NEAR 44N 145W
992 MB. FORECAST WINDS 25 TO 40 KT SEAS 12 TO 18 FT FROM 43N TO
50N BETWEEN 138W AND 166W. ELSEWHERE FORECAST WINDS 25 TO 35 KT
SEAS 10 TO 17 FT FROM 38N TO 43N BETWEEN 135W AND 153W. ALSO
FORECAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KT SEAS 10 TO 14 FT FROM 42N TO 50N E OF
128W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST PRIMARY LOW 45N 148W 987 MB. FORECAST WINDS 25
TO 40 KT SEAS 10 TO 18 FT FROM 37N TO 52N BETWEEN 138W AND 153W.
48 HOUR FORECAST SECONDARY LOW 48N 131W 995 MB. FORECAST WINDS
20 TO 30 KT SEAS 10 TO 15 FT FROM 41N TO 48N E OF 131W.

[Coredesat]

And it's already gone from NRL...

[Hurricanehink]

Weak However, hasn't that happened in the past? Don't they occassionally remove an invest to replace it with a noname?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It would not suprize me if this being upgraded; I see very little for it not to be.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Warm core by fsu!

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... 00/11.html

[Coredesat]

Yes, GFS, CMC, NOGAPS, and UKMET have this as a warm-core system.

EDIT: Now gone from FNMOC.