"DID NOAA JUMP THE GUN"?

[carve]

Just asking....because they are calling for a warmer winter this year..I know winter is not even here yet,but we are having some unusually cold weather for this time of year..Any comments?(it sure is cold here in ohio)

[Aquawind]

Yep.. An early start could mean a early end or at least a warm break in the middle.. Rarely do they start this early and last all season long.

[CaptinCrunch]

NOAA's temperature outlook is more reflective of a strong El Nino event, and not of a weak to moderate event that we are seeing now. NOAA will release another update to it's winter 06/07 outlook a few more times before Dec 1.

[Extremeweatherguy]

yeah the difference between NOAA and ACCUWEATHER is the strength of the El Nino. Accuweather's forecast calls for a weak El Nino while NOAA is calling for a moderate one.

Both, however, have said that this winter will be colder than last winter and will likely NOT have a record warm January.

[Aquawind]

State climatologist: Chances are S.D. will see warm winter
From staff reports
PUBLISHED: October 23, 2006
Chances are good that South Dakota will see a warmer-than-average winter, one prominent expert declared Monday.

South Dakota State University Extension State Climatologist Dennis Todey said that an El Nino event, a warming of the ocean surface off the western coast of South America, is influencing weather patterns worldwide. The El Nino phenomenon frequently results in mild winter weather for South Dakota.

“What we are looking at this winter is a very strong probability of warmer-than-average temperatures throughout the winter,” Todey said. “If the El Nino continues to hold or strengthen, our likelihood of a warmer winter will still stay quite high.”

http://www.argusleader.com/apps/pbcs.dl ... S/61023025

[Extremeweatherguy]

State climatologist: Chances are S.D. will see warm winter
From staff reports
PUBLISHED: October 23, 2006
Chances are good that South Dakota will see a warmer-than-average winter, one prominent expert declared Monday.

South Dakota State University Extension State Climatologist Dennis Todey said that an El Nino event, a warming of the ocean surface off the western coast of South America, is influencing weather patterns worldwide. The El Nino phenomenon frequently results in mild winter weather for South Dakota.

“What we are looking at this winter is a very strong probability of warmer-than-average temperatures throughout the winter,” Todey said. “If the El Nino continues to hold or strengthen, our likelihood of a warmer winter will still stay quite high.”

http://www.argusleader.com/apps/pbcs.dl ... S/61023025

yes, both Accuweather and Noaa are predicting a warmer than normal winter in South Dakota, so I would say this article is probably pretty accurate.

However, with that being said, latest model runs for the winter (especially the Euro) have showed the idea of a colder than normal winter for most of the nation. If this is the case, then all bets on both forecasts (accuweather and noaa) are off!

[deltadog03]

here is the KEY***** as JB has stated many times.... IF** there is high lattitude blocking then this winter could be very interesting. I personally believe that blocking will keep a colder and snowier pattern around longer.

[JBG]

Yep.. An early start could mean a early end or at least a warm break in the middle.. Rarely do they start this early and last all season long.

1972-73 had an early start and a real wimpy January-February. NYC had its earliest snow ever, I think either October 17 or October 19. Around November 15, there was a massive event that brought heavy snow to within 60 miles of the NYC coast. Thanksgiving had record cold in Albany and NYC.

Then, record snowlessness for NYC and many other cities for winter. NYC's first measurable snow was a record late January 29, 1973 (the October snow was not measurable), even though suburbs as little as 15 miles north did get a few inches out of a December 15, 1972 storm that I remember quite well (I'll PM the reasons I remember it, some weather-related and some not).

A colder pattern, with minor amounts of snow, did set in from mid-February to late March, but still, the snowfall for Central Park was a meager 2.9 inches. The ENSO was a strong El Nino (nothing like 1982-3 or 1997-8), with an East QBO.

[wxmann_91]

deltadog,

The high latitude blocking has been very much prevalent the past month...the NAO has been extremely negative at times. Whether this pattern lasts into winter is uncertain but if it does it will be a memorable one.


JBG,

72-73 was a strong nino. My thinking is that the nino wasn't really strong in October which allowed an enhanced subtropical jet (STJ) to phase with the polar jet, bringing in cold and storms. However as the nino intensified so did the STJ which created a pattern too progressive. The nino is drastically weaker this year.

[JBG]

deltadog,
JBG,

72-73 was a strong nino. My thinking is that the nino wasn't really strong in October which allowed an enhanced subtropical jet (STJ) to phase with the polar jet, bringing in cold and storms. However as the nino intensified so did the STJ which created a pattern too progressive. The nino is drastically weaker this year.

Remember, though, on or about January 7-8, 1973, Georgia through North Carolina got plastered with a major snowstorm, and the weather generally held cold for much of the month. The only problem was that all of the storms either went out to the south, along the subtropical jet, or turned inland, bringing abundant warm air to the I-95 corridor. The January 29, 1973 storm was a snow to rain to snow, with the strong snow phase at the end.

Also, did not the 1972-73 Nino Episode peak rather speedily in December 1972 and crumble (link), similar to the 1951-52 pattern? I ask since you were positing that El Nino strengthened after October. Its post-October strengthening was not striking, from all appearances.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Yep.. An early start could mean a early end or at least a warm break in the middle.. Rarely do they start this early and last all season long.

1972-73 had an early start and a real wimpy January-February. NYC had its earliest snow ever, I think either October 17 or October 19. Around November 15, there was a massive event that brought heavy snow to within 60 miles of the NYC coast. Thanksgiving had record cold in Albany and NYC.

Then, record snowlessness for NYC and many other cities for winter. NYC's first measurable snow was a record late January 29, 1973 (the October snow was not measurable), even though suburbs as little as 15 miles north did get a few inches out of a December 15, 1972 storm that I remember quite well (I'll PM the reasons I remember it).

A colder pattern, with minor amounts of snow, did set in from mid-February to late March, but still, the snowfall for Central Park was a meager 2.9 inches. The ENSO was a strong El Nino (nothing like 1982-3 or 1997-8), with an East QBO.

However, the "wimpy" Jan/Feb 73' was not so in Texas. Houston recieved three different 1.5"+ snowfalls during that period.

[JBG]

Yep.. An early start could mean a early end or at least a warm break in the middle.. Rarely do they start this early and last all season long.

1972-73 had an early start and a real wimpy January-February. NYC had its earliest snow ever, I think either October 17 or October 19. Around November 15, there was a massive event that brought heavy snow to within 60 miles of the NYC coast. Thanksgiving had record cold in Albany and NYC.

As I remember. I remember thinking that Houston, NOLA, Atlanta, and Raleigh were stealing our snow that winter. A snowstorm that nearly "snowed out" my father's funeral on January 7, 1973 wound up giving 1' to 2' to Atlanta-Washington.

Then, record snowlessness for NYC and many other cities for winter. NYC's first measurable snow was a record late January 29, 1973 (the October snow was not measurable), even though suburbs as little as 15 miles north did get a few inches out of a December 15, 1972 storm that I remember quite well (I'll PM the reasons I remember it).

A colder pattern, with minor amounts of snow, did set in from mid-February to late March, but still, the snowfall for Central Park was a meager 2.9 inches. The ENSO was a strong El Nino (nothing like 1982-3 or 1997-8), with an East QBO.

However, the "wimpy" Jan/Feb 73' was not so in Texas. Houston recieved three different 1.5"+ snowfalls during that period.

I remember that well.

One of those storms was due to hit NYC area on January 7, 1973, the day of my Dad's funeral. We were worried about a "snow-out". The storm wound up giving 1' to 2' of snow -- to Atlanta, Charlotte and Raleigh. Not a flake made it north of DC.

[wxmann_91]

deltadog,
JBG,

72-73 was a strong nino. My thinking is that the nino wasn't really strong in October which allowed an enhanced subtropical jet (STJ) to phase with the polar jet, bringing in cold and storms. However as the nino intensified so did the STJ which created a pattern too progressive. The nino is drastically weaker this year.

Remember, though, on or about January 7-8, 1973, Georgia through North Carolina got plastered with a major snowstorm, and the weather generally held cold for much of the month. The only problem was that all of the storms either went out to the south, along the subtropical jet, or turned inland, bringing abundant warm air to the I-95 corridor. The January 29, 1973 storm was a snow to rain to snow, with the strong snow phase at the end.

Also, did not the 1972-73 Nino Episode peak rather speedily in December 1972 and crumble (link), similar to the 1951-52 pattern? I ask since you were positing that El Nino strengthened after October. Its post-October strengthening was not striking, from all appearances.

Hmmm, that's interesting. You are right - it only strengthened from 1.8 to 2.1. It might have been something else that led to that then.

[JBG]

deltadog,
JBG,

72-73 was a strong nino. My thinking is that the nino wasn't really strong in October which allowed an enhanced subtropical jet (STJ) to phase with the polar jet, bringing in cold and storms. However as the nino intensified so did the STJ which created a pattern too progressive. The nino is drastically weaker this year.

Remember, though, on or about January 7-8, 1973, Georgia through North Carolina got plastered with a major snowstorm, and the weather generally held cold for much of the month. The only problem was that all of the storms either went out to the south, along the subtropical jet, or turned inland, bringing abundant warm air to the I-95 corridor. The January 29, 1973 storm was a snow to rain to snow, with the strong snow phase at the end.

Also, did not the 1972-73 Nino Episode peak rather speedily in December 1972 and crumble (link), similar to the 1951-52 pattern? I ask since you were positing that El Nino strengthened after October. Its post-October strengthening was not striking, from all appearances.

Hmmm, that's interesting. You are right - it only strengthened from 1.8 to 2.1. It might have been something else that led to that then.

It was a QBO East El Nino. The only one of those that produced a snowy winter was 1968-9, and even then just barely snowier than average.

Does anyone have a bead on this year's QBO?