Invest 93L Caribbean Sea,Sat Pics,Models and Comments

[Brent]

With Wxman57's response I feel several; "Here we go folks", "October surprises" and " "s on their way.
This thread will remain alive even if the Tropics don't!

There ya go...

I've missed that during this quiet season.

[Stormcenter]

Hmmmmmm things must be really slow when have 10 pages for basically nothing.
I say we start posting on the Winter Board and about the chances of snow this season in the south.

[the_winds_that_sheared_me]

Hmmmmmm things must be really slow when have 10 pages for basically nothing.
I say we start posting on the Winter Board and about the chances of snow this season in the south.

Yeah, I heard anomolies are favoring a pretty significant snow event in the Key West area this winter. Cant wait to see if this comes to fruition.

Bookmark this link for the 48hr snowfall forecast for Key west and stay ahead of the storm all winter long http://tinyurl.com/y32l6f This includes the Havana Cuba and Nassau Bahamas areas

[HURAKAN]

TWD 8:05 AM

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81/82W S OF 21N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. A
1008 MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 18N. CLUSTERS OF
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS
FROM 12N-21N BETWEEN 76W-81W. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
AFFECTING JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WITH HEAVY SHOWERS AT
TIMES. THE GFS MODEL SHOWS A VORTICITY MAXIMUM IN THIS AREA THAT
SHOULD MOVE NW DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.


TWO 5:30 AM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EST TUE OCT 31 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
AND EXTEND ACROSS JAMAICA...CUBA...AND THE BAHAMAS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...
IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN/LANDSEA

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

hmm... a late season player may raise soem eyebrows this weekend afterall?

of course, with the front laying over the gulf, wouldn't anythign that forms just get shunted to the northeast south of Florida anyway and quickly become something of a hybrid or subtropical system?

[hial2]

hmm..

of course, with the front laying over the gulf, wouldn't anythign that forms just get shunted to the northeast south of Florida anyway and quickly become something of a hybrid or subtropical system?

Not necessarily...I still remember Gordon and his crazy path..the wind currents at this time of year are really unpredictable!!

[tailgater]

Happy Halloween

It's been a while since I visited my favorite forum, and I thought I'd point out a tiny little vortex between the Isle of Youth and the Caymans. It's moving SW, so it's probably rotating around the trough in the western Carb.


http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

[wxman57]

Yep, I see the little vortex rotating southwestward near 20.1N/82.2W. Let's see if I can get a McIDAS shot of it...

[Evil Jeremy]

i am very suprised that this is no longer an invest!!!!!!!!!!

[wxman57]

Here are a few shots of the vortex. I don't expect it to be the focus of any development. It's just a curiosity at this point:

Zoomed in:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/vortex1.gif

Zoomed out a bit:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/vortex2.gif

[AtlanticWind]

I see a nice rotation forming a little west of the western end of jamaica, cant really tell if it is mid level or at the surface. Would not be suprised to see a depression form from this.

[wxman57]

Make no mistake - I'm not thinking that this will become a TD today or tomorrow, but maybe in 3-4 days it could have a chance. Track would likely be NE across Cuba and out to sea.

[tailgater]

Make no mistake - I'm not thinking that this will become a TD today or tomorrow, but maybe in 3-4 days it could have a chance. Track would likely be NE across Cuba and out to sea.

Yeah, looking at shear maps this system better not move much or it'll get ripped apart like the rest of em. Nice pics 57.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EST TUE OCT 31 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...
SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

[Blown Away]

On average by November 1 95% of the Atlantic tropical systems would have formed for the season. Former 93L likely being our final hope for another system to track.

[hial2]

On average by November 1 95% of the Atlantic tropical systems would have formed for the season. Former 93L likely being our final hope for another system to track.

:


Ok, my turn....


A good year...no major disasters (in the Atl)..We all needed a break,thanks...you know who..

[Windsurfer_NYC]

it's baaa-aaaack!

NRL: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[HURAKAN]

31/1745 UTC 20.0N 82.9W T1.0/1.0 93L -- Atlantic Ocean

[Windsurfer_NYC]

Code: Select all

912
WHXX01 KWBC 311854
CHGHUR
 
 DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
 PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
 
  NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
  DISTURBANCE     INVEST (AL932006) ON 20061031  1800 UTC
 
          ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS...   ...36 HRS...
          061031  1800   061101  0600   061101  1800   061102  0600
 
           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    20.0N  82.9W   20.8N  84.3W   21.9N  85.3W   23.6N  85.3W
  BAMM    20.0N  82.9W   20.5N  84.9W   21.1N  86.1W   21.7N  87.0W
  A98E    20.0N  82.9W   19.9N  84.4W   20.2N  85.7W   20.6N  86.6W
  LBAR    20.0N  82.9W   20.4N  84.2W   21.8N  85.3W   23.0N  85.5W
  SHIP        25KTS          27KTS          30KTS          33KTS
  DSHP        25KTS          27KTS          30KTS          33KTS
 
          ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS...   ..120 HRS...
          061102  1800   061103  1800   061104  1800   061105  1800
 
           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    26.5N  81.2W   34.0N  65.5W   43.3N  55.4W   52.1N  50.4W
  BAMM    22.1N  86.6W   21.7N  85.3W   21.1N  86.1W   20.8N  87.2W
  A98E    20.8N  86.9W   21.4N  86.6W   21.3N  86.0W   22.1N  83.0W
  LBAR    25.6N  84.3W   31.4N  76.4W   39.5N  58.6W     .0N    .0W
  SHIP        33KTS          29KTS          20KTS           0KTS
  DSHP        33KTS          29KTS          20KTS           0KTS
 
               ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
  LATCUR =  20.0N LONCUR =  82.9W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR =   8KT
  LATM12 =  19.8N LONM12 =  81.0W DIRM12 = 287DEG SPDM12 =  10KT
  LATM24 =  19.0N LONM24 =  78.7W
  WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   40NM WNDM12 =   25KT
  CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   M
  RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
 $$

[lester]

it's baaa-aaaack!

NRL: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Halloween Suprise???