000
FXUS61 KCAR 271956
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
356 PM EDT FRI OCT 27 2006
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A
POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
TRACK WEST OF OUR REGION ON SATURDAY BRINGING RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE LOW WILL LIFT INTO QUEBEC SATURDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUE NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH POWERFUL STORM MOVING UP THE EAST
COAST TONIGHT AND THEN WEST OF MAINE BY SATURDAY NIGHT. AS LOW
INTENSIFIES STRONG SE TO E GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF
STRONG OCCLUSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW. HAVE UPGRADED
HIGH WIND WATCH OVER DOWNEAST SECTIONS TO A WARNING AND EXPECT THE
STRONGEST WINDS SATURDAY EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. GUIDANCE
NUMBERS AND BUFKIT INDICATES GUSTS TO 60 TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS
DOWNEAST SECTIONS. MINOR BEACH FLOODING AND EROSION WITH ROUGH SURF
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL
INCREASE OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS. MODEL DATA AND GUIDANCE INDICATES
WINDS TO BE JUST BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA BUT WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF IMPACT HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE WATCH FOR ALL THE NORTHERN ZONES.
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE STATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON BECOMING HEAVY
AT TIMES DURING THE EVENING HOURS. USED A BLEND OF THE
HPC...GFS...AND NAM FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH DOWNEAST SECTIONS
RECEIVING BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 3 INCHES.
AROUND AN INCH CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS. EXPECT
MAIN STEM RIVERS TO ABSORB THE RAINFALL BUT SMALLER STREAMS AND
BROOKS MAY REACH BANKFUL. ALSO LEAVES MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS
CAUSING SOME MINOR FLOODING. WITH ALL THESE CONCERNS HAVE DECIDED
TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR DOWNEAST SECTIONS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.
RAIN WILL END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AS STRONG FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL BE NORTH OF OUR REGION OVER QUEBEC ON
SUNDAY AS MOISTURE AND COLDER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BOTTOM OF
THE LOW COMES IN ON GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. RAN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH.
THICKNESSES INDICATE STEEP LAPSE RATES WHICH WILL RESULT IN VERY
GUSTY WINDS AND ANY SNOWFALL BEING VERY ELEVATIONALLY DEPENDENT.
WE COULD BE LOOKING AT AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ABOVE 1500 FT. SNOW
SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE OVER THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MIXED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY
MONDAY AS RIDGING PUSHES INTO THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A
PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR DAY MONDAY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS THOUGH
STRATOCU OVER THE NORTH MAY KEEP SKIES ON THE CLOUDY SIDE OF
PARTLY CLOUDY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
AROUND MID WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANOTHER WIND AND RAIN EVENT
WILL THEN BE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. IN GENERAL...LOOKING ALOT
LIKE LATE FALL WITH OUR STRONG SAINT LAWRENCE LOWS BRINGING US OUR
ANNUAL AUTUMN WIND AND RAIN EVENTS.
Source:
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/data/CAR/AFDCAR
