NOAA OUTLOOK WINTER 2006/2007

[Opal storm]

LOL, The only reason why you guys hate this forecast so much is becuase it doesn't show what you WANT to see.If they painted snow and cold weather all across the country then you wouldn't be bashing it. Correct me if im wrong, but I thought a weak El Nino usually meant a warmer than average winter?

[cheezyWXguy]

No...La Nina makes for a warmer winter...like last winter

[Extremeweatherguy]

LOL, The only reason why you guys hate this forecast so much is becuase it doesn't show what you WANT to see.If they painted snow and cold weather all across the country then you wouldn't be bashing it. Correct me if im wrong, but I thought a weak El Nino usually meant a warmer than average winter?

El nino means a cooler winter across the east and Gulf coast, a warmer winter across the northern plains and NW. Also, the southern jet stream is more active and further north, so wet weather is likely along the Gulf coast.

A weak El Nino, however, with a negative NAO usually means cooler than normal winters for most areas east of the Rockies with an increased risk of arctic outbreaks (like the one the northern plains and NE is currently seeing).

BTW, I wouldn't even call what NOAA puts out a "forecast". It is more of just a bunch of probabilities thrown together in such a way that it seems they can always say they were never wrong. I don't like this style of prediction beyond day 15 though, and I only take into account the short-term CPC forecasts.

ALSO: The CPC could very well be correct with their outlook, and I will applaud them if they are, but looking at the past analogs, it just doesn't seem reasonable that almost the entire nation will be warmer than normal this winter.

[CaptinCrunch]

NOAA released a update to it's Winter 2006/07 forecast. IF YOU WANT TO CALL IT THAT? Still to Warm, still to Dry!!!

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2006/s2724.htm

[CaptinCrunch]

NOAA released it's latest update to it's Winter 2006/07 forecast. Still to Warm, still to Dry!!!

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2006/s2742.htm

[gboudx]

NOAA released it's latest update to it's Winter 2006/07 forecast. Still to Warm, still to Dry!!!

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2006/s2742.htm

So, when are you publishing your outlook CC?

[CaptinCrunch]

NOAA released it's latest update to it's Winter 2006/07 forecast. Still to Warm, still to Dry!!!

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2006/s2742.htm

So, when are you publishing your outlook CC?

my old friend I just have not had time to finish my outlook with all the changes over the past 2 months. I may try to get it done over the Thanksgiving weekend.

September finished up right at normal for temps and just slightly above for precip. October was the same for both temp and precip, and November is so far normal for temps and slightly below the norm for precip. Looking ahead to December I think NTX will see below avg temps and above avg precip to close out the month.

The just of the forecast will call for the cold to really take shape over the U.S from the rockies east by mid December. Mid Jan thru Mid Feb will be our coldest period for NTX and I do see 1 or 2 good snows during that time frame. The end of December may also be very cold and wet for NTX.

[gboudx]

Snow I can handle, but no ice or sleet. Unfortunately, we rarely get snow without one of the others first.

Needless to say, we really need this El Nino to materialize with above avg precip.

Looking forward to reading your outlook, and thanks.

[Portastorm]

NOAA released it's latest update to it's Winter 2006/07 forecast. Still to Warm, still to Dry!!!

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2006/s2742.htm

So, when are you publishing your outlook CC?

my old friend I just have not had time to finish my outlook with all the changes over the past 2 months. I may try to get it done over the Thanksgiving weekend.

September finished up right at normal for temps and just slightly above for precip. October was the same for both temp and precip, and November is so far normal for temps and slightly below the norm for precip. Looking ahead to December I think NTX will see below avg temps and above avg precip to close out the month.

The just of the forecast will call for the cold to really take shape over the U.S from the rockies east by mid December. Mid Jan thru Mid Feb will be our coldest period for NTX and I do see 1 or 2 good snows during that time frame. The end of December may also be very cold and wet for NTX.

Hey Captin, draw that snow/ice line as far south as Austin, and you're my friend forever!!

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

So NOAA is revising what will probably end up being another busted forecast? What's new? These outlooks aren't worth the webspace they take up, that's for sure. If you want to see if we are going to get a cold snap anytime in the next few months, pay attention to rapid run ups on natural gas and heating oil futures on the NYMEX.

How quietly do you all think they will acknoweledge Hurricane season is offcially over in a few weeks?

[CaptinCrunch]

NOAA released it's latest update to it's Winter 2006/07 forecast. Still to Warm, still to Dry!!!

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2006/s2742.htm

So, when are you publishing your outlook CC?

my old friend I just have not had time to finish my outlook with all the changes over the past 2 months. I may try to get it done over the Thanksgiving weekend.

September finished up right at normal for temps and just slightly above for precip. October was the same for both temp and precip, and November is so far normal for temps and slightly below the norm for precip. Looking ahead to December I think NTX will see below avg temps and above avg precip to close out the month.

The just of the forecast will call for the cold to really take shape over the U.S from the rockies east by mid December. Mid Jan thru Mid Feb will be our coldest period for NTX and I do see 1 or 2 good snows during that time frame. The end of December may also be very cold and wet for NTX.

Hey Captin, draw that snow/ice line as far south as Austin, and you're my friend forever!!

Portastorm,

when the weather patteren does change, and it will, winter type precip may fall as far South as Houston. when that pacific jet weakens and gets pushed south it's going to open up the door for all that arctic air over the Yucon to move south in the US. Much like last year and the year before I think that the deep south will get a good taste of that arctic air by late December.

[CaptinCrunch]

So NOAA is revising what will probably end up being another busted forecast? What's new? These outlooks aren't worth the webspace they take up, that's for sure. If you want to see if we are going to get a cold snap anytime in the next few months, pay attention to rapid run ups on natural gas and heating oil futures on the NYMEX.

How quietly do you all think they will acknoweledge Hurricane season is offcially over in a few weeks?

The problem I have with the NOAA is that they tend to do their seasonal outlooks based on assumption.

here is a link you may find helpful.

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~mantua/TABLES2.html

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

So NOAA is revising what will probably end up being another busted forecast? What's new? These outlooks aren't worth the webspace they take up, that's for sure. If you want to see if we are going to get a cold snap anytime in the next few months, pay attention to rapid run ups on natural gas and heating oil futures on the NYMEX.

How quietly do you all think they will acknoweledge Hurricane season is offcially over in a few weeks?

The problem I have with the NOAA is that they tend to do their seasonal outlooks based on assumption.

here is a link you may find helpful.



http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~mantua/TABLES2.html

Exaclty. Well said.