Nice call...

#1 Postby **drezee** » Sun Jun 15, 2003 10:54 am

Posted: Sat Jun 14, 2003 7:00 pm

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Trough axis seems to be showing up near Honduras/Nic. Border. Low should track along this trough(WNW) at least for awhile.

Drezee

Lo and behold the low center is on the Honduras/Nic border....

#2 Postby **drezee** » Tue Jun 17, 2003 11:19 am

Lo and behold it did go WNW and not NNW or into FL like some said....

ColdFront77 · #3 Postby **ColdFront77** » Tue Jun 17, 2003 11:22 am

The WNW movement of the tropical wave over the Belize area can easily become NNW, in response to the very slow moving/quasi-stationary cold front over the United States. The general movement of the system currently over land may still move toward Florida eventually.

Rainband · #4 Postby **Rainband** » Tue Jun 17, 2003 4:30 pm

drezee wrote:Lo and behold it did go WNW and not NNW or into FL like some said....

Almost all the pros said nnw and then ne into florida due to the front..but then again all the pros were judging it to develop and if it would have the track would have verified..but due to it's disorganization your track did..obviously this season is going to be alot about luck when it comes to forecasting..but Great JOB!!!

Stormsfury · #5 Postby **Stormsfury** » Tue Jun 17, 2003 6:23 pm

drezee wrote:Lo and behold it did go WNW and not NNW or into FL like some said....

It would have had the system developed like everyone thought it would ...
Since the system remained shallow, the system was steered by the low level flow thus the BAMM model did very well with it in regards to track ...

Rainband · #6 Postby **Rainband** » Tue Jun 17, 2003 7:44 pm

Stormsfury wrote:
drezee wrote:Lo and behold it did go WNW and not NNW or into FL like some said....

It would have had the system developed like everyone thought it would ...
Since the system remained shallow, the system was steered by the low level flow thus the BAMM model did very well with it in regards to track ...

Didn't I just say that LOL :lol:

#7 Postby **drezee** » Tue Jun 17, 2003 8:04 pm

I am an old hand at this... I just don't feel the need to throw positions out and not post about them unless they are close. I have studied hurricanes for over 15 years @ the University of South Alabama...no need for credential checks here

If you really want to know what happened here you only need look at the past. June and July system that form in that area are known for their lack of vertical organization. At which point you will always get a wonderfully looking system with a Mid level circulation that forms by the shear magnitude of the convection. It fades away and the LLC takes the path of least resistance in this case WNW...

Rainband · #8 Postby **Rainband** » Tue Jun 17, 2003 8:09 pm

drezee wrote:I am an old hand at this... I just don't feel the need to throw positions out and not post about them unless they are close. I have studied hurricanes for over 15 years @ the University of South Alabama...no need for credential checks here

If you really want to know what happened here you only need look at the past. June and July system that form in that area are known for their lack of vertical organization. At which point you will always get a wonderfully looking system with a Mid level circulation that forms by the shear magnitude of the convection. It fades away and the LLC takes the path of least resistance in this case WNW...

we all three just said the same thing but in three different ways..Thats why STORM2K ROCKS!!!!! :wink:

Stormsfury · #9 Postby **Stormsfury** » Tue Jun 17, 2003 8:18 pm

*LOL* ... Sorry about that Rainband, and Drezee...

After re-reading the thread and getting a good shot of Mountain Dew, I can see clearly now!!..*LOL*

Rainband · #10 Postby **Rainband** » Wed Jun 18, 2003 7:35 am

Stormsfury wrote:*LOL* ... Sorry about that Rainband, and Drezee...

After re-reading the thread and getting a good shot of Mountain Dew, I can see clearly now!!..*LOL*

Nothing to be sorry about..I think it's cool..I am just happy I am in the loop on things lol :lol:

Derecho · #11 Postby **Derecho** » Wed Jun 18, 2003 1:29 pm

Rainband wrote:
drezee wrote:Lo and behold it did go WNW and not NNW or into FL like some said....
Almost all the pros said nnw and then ne into florida due to the front..but then again all the pros were judging it to develop and if it would have the track would have verified..but due to it's disorganization your track did..obviously this season is going to be alot about luck when it comes to forecasting..but Great JOB!!!

Umm...WHAT "Pros" specifically said NE into Florida?

Rainband · #12 Postby **Rainband** » Wed Jun 18, 2003 1:39 pm

The national weather service..the weather channel..national hurricane center and early models..I believe thats all of them..they however expected it to develop and it didn't :wink:

If it had the shortwave would have verified the track..the pros predicted :wink:

Nice call...

Nice call...

Easy to blow it off as luck...

Re: Easy to blow it off as luck...

Ummm.....

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