CPC thinks...

[aggiecutter]

there is a big cool down coming next week to the lower 48 east of the Rockies...

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predic ... mp.new.gif

[gboudx]

Help my understand those maps. The dashed black lines are climatology. Is that the high/low/day temp average? And the shaded area for Texas, does that mean a 50% chance of being below normal for that time period?

[Tstormwatcher]

I believe that the blue is below normal and red above normal with the numbers being percent above or below. Correct me if I am wrong.

[aggiecutter]

Very impressive shot of cold air for this time of the year....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _204.shtml

The EURO is singing the same tune...

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/ecmna.108.gif

The Ensembles agree...

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/ ... 68_us.html

[Portastorm]

I love it ... I love it ... winter is coming closer on S2K.

EWG is talking 540 lines near Houston ... aggiecutter is monitoring the ensembles ... I'm hanging on every GFS run ... CC down in Corpus will be piping up soon about the dearth of seasoned NWS forecasters in south Texas ... yup, it's beginning to look a lot like fall/winter!

Bring on the massive front. I'm excited!

[Kelarie]

Oh yes, I can come out of my summer storage and start enjoy the outdoors again. And maybe, just maybe, have a fire in the fireplace.

Oh yes, I feel life starting to stir again.

If y'all can't tell this is my favourite time of the year.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

I love it ... I love it ... winter is coming closer on S2K.

EWG is talking 540 lines near Houston ... aggiecutter is monitoring the ensembles ... I'm hanging on every GFS run ... CC down in Corpus will be piping up soon about the dearth of seasoned NWS forecasters in south Texas ... yup, it's beginning to look a lot like fall/winter!

Bring on the massive front. I'm excited!

LOL! And let's not forget Jeff's weather warnings and AFM telling us all to calm down and not to buy the hype.

None the less, Good Bye, Good Bye Summer!!!

[aggiecutter]

The CPC is even more bullish today....

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predic ... mp.new.gif

[sphinx]

Copied from the HPC medium-range discussion of this afternoon.

(that last sentence is quite the understatement!)

12Z GFS HAS GONE BACK WWD OF THE 06Z WITH ITS AXIS OF DIGGING TROF INTO THE PLAINS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF AND 00Z ENSEMBLE MEAN RUN. BUT BY LATE DAY 5 WED INTO THURS DAY 6 IT DROPS SWD ITS ENTIRE VORTEX INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE RESULT IS LARGE VERY DEEP CLOSED LOW WITH H500 HTS OFF THE DEVIATION SCALE YIELDING A HISTORIC EVENT. H850 TEMPS ACROSS THE LOWER RED RIVER VALLEY AND EWD ACROSS THE
GULF COASTAL STATES ARE NR 5 STANDARD DEVIATONS BELOW NORMAL. WE WILL NOT BE USING THIS SOLUTION.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Copied from the HPC medium-range discussion of this afternoon.

(that last sentence is quite the understatement!)

12Z GFS HAS GONE BACK WWD OF THE 06Z WITH ITS AXIS OF DIGGING TROF INTO THE PLAINS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF AND 00Z ENSEMBLE MEAN RUN. BUT BY LATE DAY 5 WED INTO THURS DAY 6 IT DROPS SWD ITS ENTIRE VORTEX INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE RESULT IS LARGE VERY DEEP CLOSED LOW WITH H500 HTS OFF THE DEVIATION SCALE YIELDING A HISTORIC EVENT. H850 TEMPS ACROSS THE LOWER RED RIVER VALLEY AND EWD ACROSS THE
GULF COASTAL STATES ARE NR 5 STANDARD DEVIATONS BELOW NORMAL. WE WILL NOT BE USING THIS SOLUTION.

It is going to be funny if it actually happens though. Not that I expect it to...but there is always a chance (since it showed it in the 00Z as well).

As of now, I am expecting (and looking foward to) a few days possibly with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s for north Houston out of all this.

[aggiecutter]

12Z EURO....WOW....

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/ecmna.107.gif

[WhiteShirt]

aggie,

can you explain the map? thanks.

[Janie2006]

Quite nearly a classic blocking pattern. I'd bet my purse there is a nice high setting over Greenland as well.

[Portastorm]

12Z EURO....WOW....

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/ecmna.107.gif

Oh wow!!! What I would give to see that in December or January with an active southern jet.

[Extremeweatherguy]

12Z EURO....WOW....

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/ecmna.107.gif

Oh wow!!! What I would give to see that in December or January with an active southern jet.

yeah, that would be crazy!

This could be an early sign of what we may see in December or January though, as the fall pattern usually sticks through the winter on many occassions. If this is the case this year, then the coldest winter in quite some time would not surprise me.

BTW: I was looking at a long range climate model (CFS) yesterday, and I noticed it showed a strong trough over the central/eastern country toward the end of each of the next 4-5 months. If this happens, then that means a chilly Halloween (Oct. 31st), Thanksgiving (Nov. 23rd), and Christmas (Dec. 25th) could be on the way!

[double D]

The winter weather boards should be busy this year, especially when the GFS starts showing the 8-15 day fantasy solutions.

[wxmann_91]

12Z EURO....WOW....

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/ecmna.107.gif

Oh wow!!! What I would give to see that in December or January with an active southern jet.

yeah, that would be crazy!

This could be an early sign of what we may see in December or January though, as the fall pattern usually sticks through the winter on many occassions. If this is the case this year, then the coldest winter in quite some time would not surprise me.

BTW: I was looking at a long range climate model (CFS) yesterday, and I noticed it showed a strong trough over the central/eastern country toward the end of each of the next 4-5 months. If this happens, then that means a chilly Halloween (Oct. 31st), Thanksgiving (Nov. 23rd), and Christmas (Dec. 25th) could be on the way!

I hope you aren't actually trusting the CFS.