Invest 97L North of V.I,Puerto Rico,Models,Sats and Comments

[caribepr]

Luis, I was just was checking it out...now I'm figuring we won't even get the rain part!! You know how it loves to go around us straight to SJ...but maybe we will get some. I've been in the garden all day planting new stuff in hopes (my fingers are burning from picking the little red PR peppers for pique)
We ARE getting a pick up in a bit of breeze now after the day being pretty still.

[cycloneye]

Luis, I was just was checking it out...now I'm figuring we won't even get the rain part!! You know how it loves to go around us straight to SJ...but maybe we will get some. I've been in the garden all day planting new stuff in hopes (my fingers are burning from picking the little red PR peppers for pique)
We ARE getting a pick up in a bit of breeze now after the day being pretty still.

Maybe you are right about not getting a single drop from this.But I dont think it will disappear completly like a ghost.

[wxman57]

As of 3pm CDT, all thunderstorms have dissipated. Not really much reason to call it an invest any longer. Just high clouds remain.

[boca]

RIP 97L.

[msbee]

Luis, I was just was checking it out...now I'm figuring we won't even get the rain part!! You know how it loves to go around us straight to SJ...but maybe we will get some. I've been in the garden all day planting new stuff in hopes (my fingers are burning from picking the little red PR peppers for pique)
We ARE getting a pick up in a bit of breeze now after the day being pretty still.

I just said the same thing to my freind..that we probably won't get a drop from this system.
we still have blue skies here.

[cycloneye]

Luis, I was just was checking it out...now I'm figuring we won't even get the rain part!! You know how it loves to go around us straight to SJ...but maybe we will get some. I've been in the garden all day planting new stuff in hopes (my fingers are burning from picking the little red PR peppers for pique)
We ARE getting a pick up in a bit of breeze now after the day being pretty still.

I just said the same thing to my freind..that we probably won't get a drop from this system.
we still have blue skies here.

And you are located very close to where they put the initial coordinates for the 18:00z models 18.0n-61.2w.

[fci]

Why do they have the numbering system only from 90-99 and back again?
Why not set up a numbering system that goes sequentially and resets each season? Like 100-199 etc...

It would eliminate the confusion like y'all were having this morning with maps for the prior 97L instead of the new (now apparently deceased) one.

They could still use the letter after the number to indicate the region that it is located. Or use different numbers like 200-299, 300-399 etc...

Just a thought to add some more common sense to the process unless there is another reason I don't know of for the current numbering.....

[boca]

Fci that would make sense but who says weather makes sense.

[Grease Monkey]

R.I.P Atlantic Hurricane season 2006.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 282109
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT THU SEP 28 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ISAAC... LOCATED ABOUT 635 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED JUST NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED THIS AFTERNOON AND SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...SOME SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.


$$
FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB

[msbee]

yes, Luis, that system..what is left of it....is due East of us...
skies here are partly cloudy, there is not a breath of air..no breeze and incredibly humid...
but no rain either
barometer has dropped somewhat but not significantly.
latest airport weather report:

24 Hour Summary

Time
EDT (UTC) Temperature
F (C) Dew Point
F (C) Pressure
Inches (hPa) Wind
MPH Weather
Latest 4 PM (20) Sep 28 86 (30) 73 (23) 29.88 (1012) E 7
3 PM (19) Sep 28 87 (31) 73 (23) 29.91 (1013) ENE 10

I

[boca]

On life support but a little flare up yet with 97L.

[cycloneye]

685
WHXX04 KWBC 282328
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 97L

INITIAL TIME 18Z SEP 28

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 17.9 61.2 285./ 8.0
6 18.0 62.1 278./ 8.3
12 18.2 63.6 278./14.4
18 18.1 65.1 265./14.0
24 18.3 65.9 280./ 8.2
30 15.4 66.3 187./29.1

STORM DISSIPATED AT 30 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

I know that the models information is not useful at this point,but I only am posting this 18z GFDL run for 97L because of the track it takes in 30 hours it has the system alive.Again this is not useful but it's interesting to see that south track.

[TheRingo]

Seems the models are still calling for some strong ridging. Indian Summer maybe?

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/gfs/2006092818/slp11.png

[marcane_1973]

R.I.P Atlantic Hurricane season 2006.

Could not have said it any better. This season is over!!! There is so much sinking dry air placed in the Atlantic that everything will go poof or become subtropical and take the train trough out to sea. There should be a couple of more weak Tropical storms like Isaac and not any more Hurricanes for the rest of the season. Next year will probably be just as boring with a moderate El Nino probably forming this winter.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972006) ON 20060929 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060929 0000 060929 1200 060930 0000 060930 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.6N 62.3W 19.7N 64.2W 20.8N 65.9W 21.7N 67.6W
BAMM 18.6N 62.3W 19.5N 64.2W 20.5N 66.0W 21.5N 67.8W
A98E 18.6N 62.3W 19.3N 64.1W 20.3N 65.7W 21.8N 67.3W
LBAR 18.6N 62.3W 19.7N 64.1W 21.0N 65.5W 22.5N 66.8W
SHIP 20KTS 20KTS 23KTS 28KTS
DSHP 20KTS 20KTS 23KTS 28KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
061001 0000 061002 0000 061003 0000 061004 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.7N 69.2W 25.4N 71.6W 29.7N 70.5W 34.2N 60.7W
BAMM 22.8N 69.5W 26.1N 71.8W 29.3N 70.6W 30.8N 67.8W
A98E 23.7N 68.8W 28.5N 69.5W 33.5N 64.1W 39.1N 57.1W
LBAR 23.5N 68.1W 25.9N 69.1W 29.0N 68.3W 33.2N 65.2W
SHIP 34KTS 45KTS 51KTS 52KTS
DSHP 34KTS 45KTS 51KTS 52KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.6N LONCUR = 62.3W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 17.9N LONM12 = 60.4W DIRM12 = 287DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 17.5N LONM24 = 58.8W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 90NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[wxman57]

R.I.P Atlantic Hurricane season 2006.

Could not have said it any better. This season is over!!! There is so much sinking dry air placed in the Atlantic that everything will go poof or become subtropical and take the train trough out to sea. There should be a couple of more weak Tropical storms like Isaac and not any more Hurricanes for the rest of the season. Next year will probably be just as boring with a moderate El Nino probably forming this winter.

I suggest looking at the latest MJO forecast. Look at the panels on the right. The blue areas are upward motion. Note the large upward motion pulse moving into the Caribbean next week:

http://www.icess.ucsb.edu/asr/MJO_previ ... pentad.htm

We're moving into a pattern that will favor development in the western Caribbean. A year ago today, Wilma was weeks away from forming. Water temps in the Caribbean are very warm, and there will be favorable winds aloft next week and the week after. With the waves in the eastern Atlantic tracking farther south and a stationary frontal boundary/upper trof near the NW Caribbean, all elements will be in place for development. Greatest risk will be to Florida, Cuba, and the DR to PR area.

[gatorcane]

Yes WxMan I agree 100%. People in Florida are writing off this season. But I urge them:

DO NOT LET THIS SEPT LULL FOOL YOU. OCTOBER IS PRIME MONTH FOR FLORIDA HITS from the South, especially South Florida.

IN fact South Florida typically gets hit more from the South than the East. In other words typically its the GOM and Straits side NOT the Atlantic side that brings in the powerful storms (just like Wilma)

[caribepr]

But will they believe the possible if it is not what is not flaming in their eyes? Doubtful...(by the way, the fish outline was hilarious).

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT THU SEP 28 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ISAAC... LOCATED ABOUT 610 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

THE SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE
NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS HAS WEAKENED THIS EVENING AND
ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BECOME VERY LIMITED. SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ANTICIPATED AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB