tip for some of you(also posted this on twc)

[rob22]

this coming season, try not to forecast with your heart, but instead use your head. during winter, if a coastal storm is headed out to sea, we in the ne will use sat images, virga on radar, bad cpu models, to try and drag storms up towards our area. if there is a storm in the gom, try not to just find ways that the storm will hit your area if its obviously not coming. a key to good forecasting is to have as little of a bias as poss and for some of you, i know its hard but find a way to let go of your bias and face the fact that not all storms will head for your area.

[ColdFront77]

Rob, hopefully it will not be a problem.

[Rainband]

this coming season, try not to forecast with your heart, but instead use your head. during winter, if a coastal storm is headed out to sea, we in the ne will use sat images, virga on radar, bad cpu models, to try and drag storms up towards our area. if there is a storm in the gom, try not to just find ways that the storm will hit your area if its obviously not coming. a key to good forecasting is to have as little of a bias as poss and for some of you, i know its hard but find a way to let go of your bias and face the fact that not all storms will head for your area.

This is Storm2k...No people I disagree with here ..but thanks for the tip!!!

[GulfBreezer]

Rob, there are alot of novices here, myself included, and when questions are asked of the more knowledgable about our specific region, it does not mean -removed-. I have seen my share of people I disagree with but I want to make sure that EVERYONE knows that if you have questions about the strike probabilities in your area, please don't be afraid to post them. There is so much weather knowledge here at S2K that if someone is truly -removed- and creating scenarios that are not even possible, there will be many posts refuting them, but this will be done in a nice way with facts to back it up. Please don't make people feel like they have to be weather gurus in order to post here. That is not what we are about.

[rob22]

gulfbreezer good to hear. this year is the 100th anniv of the last hurricane to directly make landfall in new jersey. june 03 was similar to june 1903, should i panic yet?:)

[Rainband]

Rob, there are alot of novices here, myself included, and when questions are asked of the more knowledgable about our specific region, it does not mean -removed-. I have seen my share of people I disagree with but I want to make sure that EVERYONE knows that if you have questions about the strike probabilities in your area, please don't be afraid to post them. There is so much weather knowledge here at S2K that if someone is truly -removed- and creating scenarios that are not even possible, there will be many posts refuting them, but this will be done in a nice way with facts to back it up. Please don't make people feel like they have to be weather gurus in order to post here. That is not what we are about.

Well said Sandi

[rob22]

rainband.... im sure you have been on here for at least a few cane seasons now. this is my 3rd and the past 2 had major probs with this issue. i think people should be aware of it in case another izzy or lili comes along and people in a certain area panic for little reason. in fact, look at sat images and current model analysis. post on this board anything interesting you see. thats not the prob. novices should be able to do so all they please.

[ColdFront77]

How we want to discuss issues about something heading toward our area or away from it can be a problem. We see what we observe on satellite and other data that indicates something may move toward us so we mention it.

Sandi does have a good point.

[Rainband]

rainband.... im sure you have been on here for at least a few cane seasons now. this is my 3rd and the past 2 had major probs with this issue. i think people should be aware of it in case another izzy or lili comes along and people in a certain area panic for little reason. in fact, look at sat images and current model analysis. post on this board anything interesting you see. thats not the prob. novices should be able to do so all they please.

I understand your point rob..But thats why storm2k was started to have a place where experts and novices are welcome..when someone starts saying things that aren't true, as Sandi pointed out, our forecasters correct them and try to explain logically whats the truth...There are always going to be people I disagree with and TRolls too for that matter..Storm2K deals with both swiftly and potently..Again thanks bud!!!! One other thing..I for the life of me have never been able to figure out why anyone would want a CANE of Lili or issys cat..I wouldn't mind a tropical storm or a minor hurricane..lets face we love weather but they can keep the monsters...I like watching them as fish storms but knocking on my door no thanks!!! :o

[deb_in_nc]

I am a novice. That's why I am here. I had enough of the name calling at GOPBI. These fantastic people here won't put up with it. I read and ask questions before commenting on something I don't know a whole lot about. You won't be hearing any -removed- from me.

Debbie

[ColdFront77]

I was lambasted at times at GOPBI. I appreciate my time spent on TWC from June 2002 to February 2003 and even better here at Storm2K.

[Guest]

Thanks Rob for posting this...............The key to it is not jumping on everything a model says or does which i myself learned this past winter as im sure you know from seeing some of my post elsewhere............There is alot more into forecasting imo then just the models........They help but like anything else man made they are not perfect.......Either way that doesnt seem to be a problem here at storm2k......Yea someone may say wow look at that model and wouldnt that be nice but i rarely have ever seen if at all someone say yep the models say a storm is gonna form and we think so too because of that model run.........But like others have said which make this a great site is that we have the pros and we have those that are trying to learn about the weather and i surely hope any and everyone will ask a question when needed and i am very sure it will get answered without a flamming job.....................I encourage everyone to ask a question if they have one........ But anyways i can say that none of the forecasters here at Storm2K wishcast!....... That goes for a Storm2K forecaster themselves or any of the member forecasters from other sites that post here at Storm2K!...................

[Stormsfury]

Rob, I read the thread you spoke of earlier tonight after I got home ... and it's fair to say that, of course, there will always be people that will post or start a thread on everything, whether significant or insignificant ...

You make a really good point in your post and it is very good advice, especially for inexperieced forecasters ... whether to read into the models face value or take a blend ... once in a while, when a situation seems right, a forecaster may have the experience and seen a situation like it before and knows what to expect, that he can go with a certain forecast from experience ...

Only one time did I ever make a forecast (back in the winter) with my heart into it - but I had the models, experience, and heart involved, and that was the President's Day Storm in regards to where the ice/sleet line would set up in South/North Carolina ... with the models, and the best AG signature showing up that I'd ever seen ... and how I knew the models' tendencies to underestimate where the CAD would end up ... and it paid off ...

The bottom line ... don't ever forecast with your heart unless you have something else concrete to back it up with ...

SF

[Colin]

Rob, I think we're used to that on WWBB... I know in my heart that we have a lot of excellent tropical weather forecasters here, and they don't wishcast, or make a "not-right" track, they make a forecast RIGHT - and as like others said, it hopefully and most likely will not be a problem, but thanks for bringing it up anyways - there is always a risk that it could happen.

[Derek Ortt]

Agree totally

It is not a problem here, but it is in other places. Not only do they forecast with their "hearts", but they openly admit to not using all of the data to make their "forecasts". Then, they go out bashing NHC and private mets all over stating they can "forecast" better than them. However, when it gets critical, they will be relying upon NHC and other legitimate outlets for their info.

The one request I have is this, if someone is going to blast NHC and others for their forecasts and indicate that their's is better, then at least back up your thoughs and make the life and death decision based on your forecast.

Enough of the sleeptyping rant for now, I think it is time for me to get some sleep (finally sleeping pills are starting to work after only a couple of hours)

[vbhoutex]

What originally started out as a thread that I thought I would have to post a strong rebuttal and/or rant to has turned into a good discussion of the issues involved in forecasting. That is what is so great about Storm2k IMO. We may make jokes about -removed- here at Storm2k, but I do not know how else to say it but we do not allow -removed- at Storm2k!! Don't get me wrong-I am not saying it does not happen by some who are not used to the site or are not aware of everything that does go into a forecast who are doing their best to learn to forecast responsibly(but then it is an honest mistake not a wishcast). The forecast team here at Storm2k has been and will be carefully picked for their expertise and knowledge and their track record over the last several years. Everyone on this site, admin, mod, forecaster, site member or visitor should always feel free to ask any question about any thing weather wise that is posted on this site. If you have a question about or disagree with a posted forecast you should ask about it or if you have the expertise, as several do that are not on the forecast team for Storm2k, you should ask the question or post the reason and the back up as to why you disagree. Otherwise we will become stagnant, and learn nothing.

You will find that we have a disclaimer here, as any responsible weather site does, that tells you to only make life or death decisions and decisions about your property based solely on the information your local Weather office is dispensing. I CAN NOT STRESS THAT ENOUGH!! Even I, who at least have some expertise at forecasting, will not make that type of decision based soley on what I see. Last year during Lili's approach to LA, I saw a perfect example of why we do not wishcast. Someone was posting about how scared they were and wondering if they should evacuate or stay put, etc. A troll decided they were going to have some fun(or what they thought was fun)and posted a "wishcast" about Lili slamming right into where this person was located as a CAT4/5 Hurricane with all sorts of destruction and flooding, etc. This person was so freaked they were frantic until several of us managed to get their attention and assure them this was not the case. Great discussion everyone!!

[rob22]

i just want to thank you all for the mature responses i got here. i posted this same thing on another certain board and got flamed by the masses. I just wanted to add that some people dont wishcast on purpose. They do so without really knowing. Of course we just have to be thankful we have groups like the nhc who instead of fighting over who called for development 1st on a wave(certain board), they just focus on saving lives. It really saddens me when people bash the nhc for real dumb reasons like for not upgrading a blob of clouds to a depression and such. Each year the nhc saves countless lives by giving us advanced warnings and ignoring certain weenies who badmouth them.

[cycloneye]

Excellent discussion here and that is storm2k about a family enviroment type board.And I agree rob 100% on your take on this theme and you will not see the bashing that other boards have.

[Rainband]

I agree people need to respect NHC and realize they are doing a job..one I feel they are doing rather well... We don't allow flaming of any kind here but frown highly on any towards Organizations of their expertise.

[wx247]

The NHC does a wonderful job like you said Rob22. Like with anything some people will always be unhappy with something someone does, but the NHC has a good track record. Couple that with the excellent insight from many here at Storm2K and you have a lot of valuable information to look at.