CPC

[Extremeweatherguy]

Anyone else notice that the CPC seems to no longer ever predict below normal temperatures for their 3 month outlooks? Because of this, they tend to be wrong many, many times in their long range forecasts (especially for winter). It almost seems like they are afraid to call for below normal. Does this have to do with global warming?

BTW, here is their Dec-Feb. U.S. forecast (which I am pretty sure will bust based on what I have heard from nearly every other source). Notice, not one section of the country is forecast to be below normal, and even with El Nino they decided to only put "normal" for parts of the NE Gulf coast. Makes no sense IMO:



Anyone have any ideas?

link to other three month outlooks: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... index.html

[Portastorm]

I dunno EWG ... have seen a lot of criticism from folks about these longer-range CPC outlooks ... but if you look at their precip map as well, they appear to expect a moderate to strong El Nino to develop with areas of above normal precip across much of the southern U.S. And that would coincide with what some of the private mets are suggesting at this point.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I dunno EWG ... have seen a lot of criticism from folks about these longer-range CPC outlooks ... but if you look at their precip map as well, they appear to expect a moderate to strong El Nino to develop with areas of above normal precip across much of the southern U.S. And that would coincide with what some of the private mets are suggesting at this point.

I guess now that I look at it more, you are probably right (though I have not heard anyone predict a "strong" El Nino from this).

Seems that they are using their percentages to give them an advantage though. Most of the "warm" section only has a 33-49% chance of being warmer than normal...meaning that there is a 51-67% chance of them being normal or below. So if it is above normal they will be able to say they got it right, and if it is not, they will also be able to say they got it right. If you look at it that way...the CPC can never be wrong!

I guess we will see what happens...but overall I think most of us can agree that they use their "warmer than normal" percentage points a lot more than their "cooler than normal" ones.

[Extremeweatherguy]

They do show cooler than normal periods in their short range forecasts though, and quite often at that.

For example, here is the current 6-10 day outlook:

[Portastorm]

Should that verify ... we're talking full-longitude trough! Mighty cold looking for most of us east of the Rockies.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Should that verify ... we're talking full-longitude trough! Mighty cold looking for most of us east of the Rockies.

yeah, the end of this week and next weekend look like they could be mighty cold for this time of year.

[rsdoug1981]

Here's an exciting (for me anyway) excerpt from the Jackson, MS AFD:

I HAVE STAYED A BIT CONSERVATIVE WITH THE LOWS AT THIS TIME...MAINLY DUE TO A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING I STILL HAVE. HOWEVER...LATEST ENSEMBLE DATA SUGGEST THAT
THIS WILL BE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT COLD AIRMASS WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS SEASON. H5 HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE RUNNING -3 STANDARD DEV AND THE H85 TEMP ANOMALIES ARE -3 TO -4! IF THIS PANS OUT LIKE THE ENSEMBLE DATA SUGGESTS...40-45 DEGREES MAY BE WIDESPREAD FRI MORNING. HIGHS ON FRI ARE ALSO SUSPECT AND I HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD A TAD.

That wouldn't be absurd for this area, but it would be about 10 degrees below typical late September/early October lows which typically run in the lower 50s. I can't wait. I hope it's a sign of things to come this winter. Some white stuff and a few mornings in the teens would be nice this winter. Here in Canton, MS (about 15 miles north of Jackson), we average a one inch snowfall every 2.5 years and a 3 inch + snowfall every four years according to NWS (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jan/winter_climatology.htm) . We've had traces in the last few years, but we're overdue for accumulation!

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

I dunno EWG ... have seen a lot of criticism from folks about these longer-range CPC outlooks ... but if you look at their precip map as well, they appear to expect a moderate to strong El Nino to develop with areas of above normal precip across much of the southern U.S. And that would coincide with what some of the private mets are suggesting at this point.

Becaus the CPC lookouts are usually wrong. I usually go the opposite of what they predict.