SE Texas weather thread - Strong storms Sun/Mon

[Johnny]

I actually hit 59.6 here at my house just south of Lake Conroe Dam. Man, it felt great out this morning! I'm sure we will get a few degrees cooler tonight! I'm taking my family this evening to watch the Astros at MinuteMaid Park. It should be an awesome night for a baseball game!

[PTrackerLA]

Once the clouds cleared out this morning it's turned into a gorgeous afternoon. Currently in the low 80's, clear skies, breezy, and headed for a low of 57 tonight. Looks like fall is showing up on time this year.

[southerngale]

I'm in Brownwood (Central Texas) and the low was 48°!

It's already 82° though today.

[Extremeweatherguy]

what a wonderful day! It is only 86F right now with dewpoints in the 40s and sunny skies. Tonight's forecast takes us into the middle and upper 50s, and then tomorrow should be just like today...sunny and in the middle 80s.

It finally feels like a touch of Fall has arrived!

Another front due this weekend too...

[Lindaloo]

Well when is that front going to make it to MS? I am sweating here today!

[Extremeweatherguy]

It amazes me that even when the NWS puts the forecast low as "59F" for IAH in the grids...Channel 2 still forecasts 64F (according to website).

UPDATE: They lowered it to 59F on their 5pm newscast.

[jasons2k]

Well EWG, you may get your wish after all. So much for that quote from the NWS I posted a few days ago ("Sorry...no 50's yet"). There must be a big crow's nest somewhere in Dickinson, TX hehe.

[Extremeweatherguy]

12Z GFS shows a major trough coming down the plains in 288 hrs:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _288.shtml

We will need to watch this to see if it comes true.

[Extremeweatherguy]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
857 PM CDT TUE SEP 19 2006

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FCST LOOKS GOOD WITH MANY LOCATIONS SEEING LOW TEMPS IN 50S
FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE LAST SPRING. ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY ON TAP ON
WED BEFORE REALITY SETS BACK IN ON THURS WHEN THE GULF IS REALLY
ALLOWED TO OPEN BACK UP. WILL REISSUE THE ZFP JUST TO REMOVE THE
EVENING WORDING. 47

BTW: At 9:09pm, my outdoor thermometer was reading 67.3F.

[Extremeweatherguy]

56.8F on my outdoor thermometer this morning.

[Mathias]

It looks like the nice weather is going to hold in Houston for longer than expected according to the AFD for Houston, with only a high of 87 forecast. They expect the moisture to return more slowly than originally thought.

[vbhoutex]

My car thermometer was showing 59º this am. My regular remote thermometer wasn't sending this am, but my guess is we were probably at 57-58 at the house. QUITE REFRESHING!!!! And that moisture return can wait a day or two if we have more weather like this!!!!

[Johnny]

I was sitting at 54.5 degrees at 6:30 this morning!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Guys, check out the GFS for days 10-11:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _240.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _264.shtml

Yes, I know it is a long ways out, but the GFS has been showing a similar scenario for the past MANY runs. Also, JB is calling for the same type of thing during that time.

If this plays out, then early October could be quite interesting (and quite cool as well). I guess we will wait and see...


ALSO: Here is a look at the 18Z GFS predictions for the upcoming front this weekend...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _120.shtml

Looks like this one will be as strong or stronger than the last. Areas that didn't see 50s last night will likely see them sometime early next week.

[jasons2k]

Wow the NWS sure didn't see this coming:

[Portastorm]

jschlitz ... you're right:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
903 AM CDT THU SEP 21 2006

.UPDATE...
THE WARM FRONT WAS RIGHT ON SCHEDULE FROM THE MODEL PREDICTION OF 24 HOURS AGO. THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT WAS THE RAIN CHANCES FOR TODAY.

[jasons2k]

Yep. Yesterday they said the atmosphere would be capped with no precip. until Saturday.

Also, get this:

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
848 AM CDT THU SEP 21 2006

AS THE
WARM FRONT FOR WHICH THESE STORMS ARE FORMING MOVES NORTH AT 10
MPH....THESE STORMS WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 30 MINUTES.

Did not happen. In fact, they strengthened as they moved across Chambers County and into SE Liberty. The storms moving into Jefferson County are getting more intense too:

[Extremeweatherguy]

It is quite breezy today. Enough for a Lake Wind Advisory IMO. Gusts into the middle 20s+ have recently been recorded at area airports, and about 5 minutes ago, the winds blew over a potted plant.

Here is the latest wind report from Hooks airport in Tomball:

S 20 G 28 MPH

[Extremeweatherguy]

JB, who was DEAD ON with the last front (saying it would be the coolest since last spring, which it was), is now saying he expects an even stronger front the first few days of October. He thinks this front may be strong enough to bring an early end to the growning season across the plains.

[jasons2k]

I dunno if I'd say he was "DEAD ON." Didn't you say he said this front would be a "Superfront"? The front before this last one brought the coolest temps since spring. The next front will probably do the same again. And then the next front....and then the next one. It happens every fall.

The airport dropped into the 60's for two mornings when the normal low is now 67. Not exactly a "Superfront" IMO.