SE Texas weather thread - Strong storms Sun/Mon

PTrackerLA · #61 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Thu Sep 14, 2006 4:44 pm

Don't get too excited about next week's front. I've read all the latest NWS dicussions and forecasts around our areas and the lowest the temps are forecasted to drop is the low-mid 60's. It's still very early in the fall season for us to REALLY cool off and there's simply not much cold air behind this front. Could be a big time rain maker for some Sunday-Tuesday.

Extremeweatherguy · #62 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Sep 14, 2006 5:02 pm

jschlitz wrote:Yeah, I saw that writeup from Jeff. If you Google the phrase "El Nino Winter" and click Images - you will see that the southern plains & Gulf Coast is usually below normal during an El Nino winter, while the northern US is usually above normal (these are temps not precip).

However, as I noted above, the El Nino of '97-'98 featured a very wet & mild winter for Texas. I guess it's hit or miss.

An El Nino wouldn't correlate well with the Farmer's Almanac prediction of a severely cold winter...but IMO the Farmer's Almanac is little more than entertainment. Seriously - a forecast that comes out and the deliniation of above/below normal zones follows state lines and it already says such & such date in March will be "Warm, but turning cooler and wet" is just plain nutty.

Another thing to consider is the fact that 97-98 was one of the strongest El Ninos in history. This winter's will be nothing close to that level. Weaker El Ninos can have much colder spells (instead of always being just "cool") and arctic fronts can still reach us (unlike with strong El Ninos). The winters of 1899 and 1977 featured weak El Ninos and were both the coldest in U.S. history (with ice flows reaching the GOM in 1899).

I doubt this winter will be anything like 1977 or 1899, but an overall cooler, wetter season with a few periods of stronger cold is very possible this year. This is probably what the Farmer's Almanac is seeing too.

^^Typical weak to moderate El Nino pattern^^

**BTW: This image constantly changes, so if you did not catch it shortly after it was posted, then the current image WILL NOT BE the depiction of a weak/moderate El Nino event.**

Yankeegirl · #63 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Thu Sep 14, 2006 7:13 pm

Believe me, it is welcomed to have a little chill... it is september after all!!

#64 Postby **jasons2k** » Thu Sep 14, 2006 10:10 pm

gboudx wrote:Farmer's Almanac(http://www.farmersalmanac.com/)? Old Farmer's Almanac(http://www.almanac.com)? Or both?

Wow, I never noticed that there were two of them.

Anyway, I suppose both. I know the Old Farmer's Almanac (the traditional one) had forecasts for 3-4 day periods for the entire upcoming year. Those are never accurate (and if they are, it's just chance).

As far as the maps go, I was referring to this:

http://www.farmersalmanac.com/forthepre ... rmaps.html

I guess there's a new wall along the Red River that'll keep the wet stuff south of there. Study the maps for a few minutes and look at all the implausibilities. I guess far NE Arizona, and Northern Nevada/CA have magic forcefields to keep them "near narmal" while all the areas around them are below normal. It's just a mess if you ask me....

bob rulz · #65 Postby **bob rulz** » Thu Sep 14, 2006 11:59 pm

It's just a rough representation...no need to be critical of it.

Extremeweatherguy · #66 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Sep 15, 2006 8:39 pm

18Z GFS has a squall line right over Houston during Monday afternoon:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _072.shtml

And here is a look at Wednesday morning, which will likely be the coldest in months:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _108.shtml
^^Probably upper 50s to lower/mid 60s for much of the area.^^

Extremeweatherguy · #67 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Sep 15, 2006 8:40 pm

The 18Z NAM is a little slower with the squall line and stalls it from reaching us until Monday evening:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _078.shtml

#68 Postby **jasons2k** » Fri Sep 15, 2006 9:09 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:18Z GFS has a squall line right over Houston during Monday afternoon:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _072.shtml

And here is a look at Wednesday morning, which will likely be the coldest in months:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _108.shtml
^^Probably upper 50s to lower/mid 60s for much of the area.^^

Maybe coldest in months, but the NWS HGX said this today:

"TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK QUIET WITH THE COOLEST
NIGHT SETTING UP FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING (SORRY...NO 50`S YET)."

Extremeweatherguy · #69 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Sep 15, 2006 9:13 pm

jschlitz wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:18Z GFS has a squall line right over Houston during Monday afternoon:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _072.shtml

And here is a look at Wednesday morning, which will likely be the coldest in months:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _108.shtml
^^Probably upper 50s to lower/mid 60s for much of the area.^^

Maybe coldest in months, but the NWS HGX said this today:

"TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK QUIET WITH THE COOLEST
NIGHT SETTING UP FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING (SORRY...NO 50`S YET)."

yes, of course that is what they say, but that doesn't always mean it won't happen. For instance, last week when most of us were in the middle to upper 60s...Conroe was at 60F. Therefore, with a cooler night than that, you would expect outlying areas like Conroe to be in the 50s and places closer to town to be in the lower to middle 60s.

Extremeweatherguy · #70 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 3:42 pm

12Z GFS showing what could be an even stronger front next Saturday:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _192.shtml

IF this verifies, then I would think we'd see the first 50s for sure.

Extremeweatherguy · #71 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 4:51 pm

Wednesday morning expected lows (forecasted by the NWS):

Galveston - 74F
Houston - 64F
Spring - 63F
Conroe - 62F
Brenham - 62F
Victoria - 61F
Beaumont - 61F
Bryan/College station - 60F
Austin - 57F

**Based on surrounding NWS forecasts...I would not be surprised if the Houston area forecasted mins. are lowered by 2-3 degrees.**

BTW: The KHOU website ( http://www.khou.com ) has Houston at 58 degrees on Wednesday morning!

#72 Postby **jasons2k** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 5:04 pm

water vapor shows that trough is really digging, maybe it will be chilly by Wed am.

PTrackerLA · #73 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 5:19 pm

This front does look to bring the coolest weather since last spring. Here are the NWS forecast lows for Tuesday night as of right now:

Lafayette 60
Baton Rouge 58
Alexandria 55

Not quite jacket weather but it should make things feel more like fall right in time for the official start.

#74 Postby **LAwxrgal** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 11:47 am

These fronts are digging down early this year as compared to last. Last year, IIRC, we didn't get our first frontal passage till October.

PTrackerLA · #75 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 12:35 pm

NWS now forecasting 58 degrees for Lafayette on Wednesday morning! I'll be sure to sip a cup of coffee outside before work so I can enjoy it :wink:

.

#76 Postby **BreinLa** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 12:43 pm

Oh man I can't wait I'll sit to sip my coffee too. PT make sure the cool weather lasts till Saturday please. First Cajun home game!!!!

Extremeweatherguy · #77 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 3:23 pm

Why is it that the afternoon Houston NWS staff always seems biased warm? For instance...this morning the forecast was 62F for my area... and now this afternoon it is 63F. I really don't see what changed for them to move it up a degree..especially when other sources are forecasting as low as 58F for my area on Wednesday morning. Also, it seems like they always forecast warmer than surrounding NWS offices too...Austin is forecasting 57F, Victoria is forecasting 62F, and Beaumont is forecasting 61F. This is not the first time the afternoon staff has done this either.

I am not mad by this, I am just confused why they do this. Why can't they forecast in line with other offices? There is just no way that all those areas would be that cool and we would magically be a few degrees warmer. That just doesn't happen. If anything, my area is usually cooler than Beaumont and Victoria (and within a few degrees of Austin).

Does anyone have an explanation for why they do this so often?

BTW: They even have Conroe forecasted at 63F! lol. If that happened then the world would probably end. Conroe is ALWAYS a good 3-6+ degrees colder. For instance, back a week ago when Houston was 66-67 they were 60F. There is just no way they would end up being the same as IAH or Hobby.

EVENING UPDATE: Hopefully the NWS will get with the groove tomorrow, because they still have lows of 63-64F forecasted for Wed. morning in the Houston area (including Conroe). However, Beaumont and Victoria have both lowered their forecast to 60F and Austin is now forecasting 55F. If these forecasts played out, then it would mean Houston would be sitting in the middle of a mysterious warm bubble. IMO, (if the other forecasts are right) I think most of the area north of I-10 should expect 56-61F, and most of the area south of I-10 should expect 60-66F on Wednesday morning and I for one can't wait..

Extremeweatherguy · #78 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 10:10 pm

Current areawide temperatures:

10pm CDT 9-18-06

Conroe - 68F
Tomball (Hooks) - 69F
IAH - 73F
Hobby - 74F

Yankeegirl · #79 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 10:49 pm

Still warm here on the west side, i have 71 here... i wanna see some 60's!!!

Extremeweatherguy · #80 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Sep 19, 2006 6:08 am

Finally the NWS changed their forecast. They are now calling for 59F for Spring tonight!

BTW, here are the current 6am (9-19-06) temps:

Tomball - 66F
IAH - 67F
Hobby - 69F
Conroe - 60F

SE Texas weather thread - Strong storms Sun/Mon

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