Hurricane Helene,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

[marcane_1973]

If Helene hits Bermuda at the intensity forecast that the NHC is predicting it will have peaked before landfall there and probably will not be much stronger than Florence which would be nothing for them as well. There will be a massive amount of shear and some dry air around this storm at that time so she will be steadily toast.

All your posts have the same tune. It's getting pretty old.

Do you have scientific evidence to back this up?? Did you go to a meteorology school?? Are you a pro met???

[hurricanetrack]

Not sure if this has been posted, I am tired of rummaging through posts to look to see if someone posted something already- so here it is:

GFS is basically turn north up/near 60 west and out to sea.
UKMET- west, west, west at end of its run- no higer than 27.9 N
NOGAPS- in between these two but more west than GFS

So- two of the major models indicate quite a westward movement near days 4-6. We shall see. Still no easy answers but the odds favor this hurricane never making it to the Uinted States. Bermuda is certainly on stand-by, and should never be overlooked.

[hurricanetrack]

Ok- now add in 00Z GFDL- slightly more east overall and continues the "turn out to sea" idea. Have not plotted the latter numbers, so it could be that Maritimes get swiped but I do not know my lat/lon by heart in that area of the Basin.

Bottom line- still a fairly large split in the big models. Goodnight.

[SouthFloridawx]

UKMET
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

CMC
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... hour=144hr

GFS
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=144hr

NOGAPS
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... rp&tau=144

[Thunder44]

On the GFS, there is less ridging behind the first trough that moves out, so that allows to storm to gain more latitude, so it can get pick-up by the second trough, which also looks larger this run.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This storm is starting to looks Amazing...Nice big eye with reds half around. 105-110 knots likely.

[SouthFloridawx]

I think she's tring to shoot the first gap. IMO Maybe tomorrow she'll turn more westward. GFS changing camps again.

[Thunder44]

I just saw the ECMWF on the Plymouth Site. It still turn north, but it's much slower and a little further west than the last run. It stalls Helene just east of Bermuda at Day 6 and 7.

[Normandy]

WIth all this talk of a westward motion anyone still seeing Helene pushing straight NNW?

[superfly]

WIth all this talk of a westward motion anyone still seeing Helene pushing straight NNW?

Noone is saying Helene is moving west...5 AM advisory:

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...22.3 N...49.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH.

[Thunder44]

TPC is forecasting a Cat 4 now.

[HURAKAN]

[WeatherTracker]

The Gfs 06z run curves helene well to the east of bermuda>>>ANOTHER FISH!!!

[HURAKAN]

The Gfs 06z run curves helene well to the east of bermuda>>>ANOTHER FISH!!!

Call it instinct or whatever you want, but I have never been worried of Helene making landfall in the US.

[mtm4319]

Helene 48-hour loop:



And would someone please be so kind as to re-post this in the new thread that will start shortly after I post this?

[HURAKAN]

A solid hurricane!!!

[Windtalker1]

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED...
ABOUT 315/7. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL
MOTION CONTINUING FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AS RIDGING REBUILDS IN BETWEEN GORDON AND
HELENE. THEREAFTER... THE BIG PROBLEM IS IF A TROUGH... NOW
CURRENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF THE UNITED STATES... WEAKENS THE RIDGE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE HURRICANE TO BE PICKED UP BY A SECOND TROUGH IN
A FEW DAYS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY SPLIT INTO TWO CLUSTERS.
THE GFS/UKMET/NOGAPS SUGGEST THAT THE TROUGH WILL LEAVE THE
HURRICANE BEHIND WHILE THE ECMWF/GFDL BELIEVE THE TROUGH WILL
ACCELERATE THE HURRICANE OUT TO SEA. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING WESTWARD WITH TIME... AND THE OFFICIAL

alot of uncertainty in that forecast. Basically I take it to mean if the second trough doesn't take her out I would say the chance of an EC threat goes up. There is no trough after the second trough.

Funny how most people didn't even think she would get this far west a few days ago.

I did and maintain that thinking.

[SouthFloridawx]

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED...
ABOUT 315/7. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL
MOTION CONTINUING FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AS RIDGING REBUILDS IN BETWEEN GORDON AND
HELENE. THEREAFTER... THE BIG PROBLEM IS IF A TROUGH... NOW
CURRENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF THE UNITED STATES... WEAKENS THE RIDGE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE HURRICANE TO BE PICKED UP BY A SECOND TROUGH IN
A FEW DAYS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY SPLIT INTO TWO CLUSTERS.
THE GFS/UKMET/NOGAPS SUGGEST THAT THE TROUGH WILL LEAVE THE
HURRICANE BEHIND WHILE THE ECMWF/GFDL BELIEVE THE TROUGH WILL
ACCELERATE THE HURRICANE OUT TO SEA. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING WESTWARD WITH TIME... AND THE OFFICIAL

alot of uncertainty in that forecast. Basically I take it to mean if the second trough doesn't take her out I would say the chance of an EC threat goes up. There is no trough after the second trough.

Funny how most people didn't even think she would get this far west a few days ago.

I did and maintain that thinking.

All indications showed that this system was going to be a recurver but, none of us knew at what point the system would recurve. Obviously with this pattern... of course there is going to be another trough behind the 2nd trough. You say it like... of funny how you knew it was going to move more west than us. There is still a good amount of certainty that this system gets picked up by the 2nd trough in the plains. If it does not you also have to read the line where it says, "THE BOTTOM LINE OF ALL
THIS IS THAT WHAT HAPPENS IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...THAT
IS...HOW MUCH LATITUDE HELENE CAN GAIN...COULD MAKE ALL THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A QUICK RECURVATURE AND AN AGONIZINGLY SLOW PATH
THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.". This does not mean the system is going to likely hit the East Coast and nor was it implied.

[cycloneye]

The more latitud it gains now,the less and less Bermuda will see Helene.Thanks to yes,another upper low that has caused Helene to move more north in the past 24 hours.

[storms in NC]

No east coast hit. Here is why.


FXUS62 KMHX 180743
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
343 AM EDT MON SEP 18 2006

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...EASTERN NC WILL REMAIN IN
A NARROW RIDGE ALOFT CAUGHT BETWEEN A CUT OFF LOW IN THE WESTERN
ATLC AND AND ANOTHER UPPER LOW WHICH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE CUT OFF LOW WILL END BEING ABSORBED INTO THE
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW TUE NIGHT. SFC HIGH
PRES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH THE
HIGH BREAKING DOWN AS A SHARP COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT.

DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES. A FEW SHOWERS COULD BREAK OUT AROUND DAYBREAK INLAND
BUT WILL KEEP PCPN OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL 12Z TUE. TUE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING LOOK VERY WET WITH ROBUST ASCENT OCCURRING
DUE TO LOW LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER DIVERGENCE COURTESY
OF THE JET ENTRANCE REGION. AIRMASS IS VERY MOIST WITH PW ABOVE
2". SHEAR AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK MARGINAL FOR SEVERE TSTMS
BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL OCCUR WITH AVERAGE QPF BY WED MORNING
.75 TO 1 INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. WE PREFER THE SLIGHTLY
FASTER GFS SOLN WHICH ENDS THE PCPN BY 12Z WED. HIGH PRES AND
COOLER AIR IS FORECAST TO FILTER INTO NC ON WED WITH PLEASANT
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH PRES WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPS AND DRY WX IS EXPECTED THU AND FRI. ANOTHER IN A
SERIES OF UPPER LOWS WILL BE TRAVELING EAST ACROSS THE CONUS BY
THE WEEKEND BUT AN UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO BECOME ESTABLISHED
ALONG JUST OFF THE EAST COAST WHICH WILL TEND TO SLOW DOWN SYSTEMS
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.