Hurricane Helene,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[brunota2003]

I'll say it... HOLY CRAP If this trend continues...then I might get a little worried...normally a system makes landfall around my b-day...and monday is my b-day...so could this be this years b-day storm? Isabel...Ophelia...??? (I know...it will turn most likely...and this is the 18Z run...however its been shifting westard all day...yipes...)

You and My brother and your BDays. He also gets one for his. LOL Sept6th LOL
Going to send you two the North Pole

Then they will be receiving polar lows up there... Which would be worse? a Polar Low or "weak" hurricane?

[WeatherTracker]

This is going to be one storm that is going to cause us pain and suffering....

[WeatherTracker]

the GFS has helene making a NC landfall!!!!

[cycloneye]

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM HELENE 08L

INITIAL TIME 18Z SEP 16

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 19.1 45.9 310./11.1
6 19.4 46.8 291./ 9.1
12 19.8 47.7 295./ 9.3
18 20.3 48.4 303./ 7.7
24 20.7 48.8 314./ 5.9
30 21.3 49.1 335./ 6.9
36 22.0 49.6 324./ 8.0
42 22.7 50.2 322./ 9.1
48 23.4 50.8 319./ 8.9
54 23.7 51.4 297./ 6.5
60 24.1 52.2 294./ 8.3
66 24.5 53.1 296./ 8.8
72 24.8 53.9 288./ 8.2
78 25.1 54.5 300./ 6.5
84 25.7 55.3 306./ 9.3
90 26.5 55.9 325./ 9.3
96 27.5 56.3 340./10.7
102 28.9 56.4 355./13.5
108 30.5 56.5 355./16.2
114 32.3 56.6 359./17.6
120 34.1 56.4 6./18.6
126 35.9 55.7 20./18.7

18z GFDL recurves.

[Evil Jeremy]

GFDL has been forecasting a recurve for a long time.

[O Town]

if i remember right the 18z is not as credible as the 0z and 12z, right?

why would there be a diffrence in their reliablity?

Thats what I heard as well Fact. The 0z and 12z are more helpful.
I think MWatkins covers the reasoning here in this old thread about models. Great read if you haven't read it before.
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 38#1330638

[huricanwatcher]

WeatherTracker, oh just wonderful and I havent moved north yet...... GRRRRRRRRRRR

[sma10]

This is going to be one storm that is going to cause us pain and suffering....

Yes and no.

Even though the latest GFS shows a hurricane near the US Coast in about 8 days, we will know much, much earlier than that if it's going to verify. There's going to come a point in the next couple of days where it will become apparent which "camp" is closer to the truth.

[storms in NC]

that is the same as the 5PM

[WeatherTracker]

WeatherTracker, oh just wonderful and I havent moved north yet...... GRRRRRRRRRRR

dont get worried just yet...This is a long time away and things can change..on that note, the GFS is one of the more reliable models..

[WeatherTracker]

This is going to be one storm that is going to cause us pain and suffering....

Yes and no.

Even though the latest GFS shows a hurricane near the US Coast in about 8 days, we will know much, much earlier than that if it's going to verify. There's going to come a point in the next couple of days where it will become apparent which "camp" is closer to the truth.

Could the GFDL verify?

[Evil Jeremy]

when are the rest of the new models going to be coming in?

[huricanwatcher]

with the "no activity this year" .... well very small impacts... One would certainly think that we are "DUE A MAJOR" east coast from south to north wouldnt surprise me.....

[WeatherTracker]

when are the rest of the new models going to be coming in?

look for them after 8:30...

[sma10]

GFDL has been forecasting a recurve for a long time.

Correct. Perhaps the GFDL has been consistent and wrong.

All else equal, the NHC feels much more comfortable with model solutions that stay consistent. The GFS had been forecasting a northward movement for like 100 runs in a row, and then all of a suddent today has started moving westward like a bandit. Question is: why? Has it stumbled onto a better solution? Or has it gone batty?

[Evil Jeremy]

thx!

[WeatherTracker]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/adt/odt3.html

Helene

pressure: 986.9mb

winds:67.4kt

T#: 4.2

[brunota2003]

The G-IV jet data will be into the models tonight at 0Z correct? (the SALEX Experiment one...)

[WeatherTracker]

Models come for 18z...

[sma10]

Could the GFDL verify?

Sure it could.

And quite honestly, if you ask most of the pro-mets, they probably think it has a better chance of verifying than the GFS.