Hurricane Helene - Cat. 3

[Thunder44]

The QS puts the center position just closer to between 12.5N and 13.0N, although it looks elongated somewhat from ENE to WSW:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _at_2.html

That it how it also looks to me on visible imagery on the floater. It would be further south than what TPC had this morning.

[Damar91]

The QS puts the center position just closer to between 12.5N and 13.0N, although it looks elongated somewhat from ENE to WSW:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _at_2.html

That it how it also looks to me on visible imagery on the floater. It would be further south than what TPC had this morning.

Yeah, I think the NHC's position of 13.7 is too far north after looking at that QS. More like you said around 12.5 or so.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM HELENE (AL082006) ON 20060914 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060914 1200 060915 0000 060915 1200 060916 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.3N 36.0W 13.8N 38.3W 14.7N 40.1W 16.2N 41.3W
BAMM 13.3N 36.0W 14.0N 38.3W 15.0N 40.2W 16.5N 41.5W
A98E 13.3N 36.0W 13.5N 40.0W 13.2N 43.5W 12.8N 46.3W
LBAR 13.3N 36.0W 13.9N 39.3W 14.7N 42.5W 15.4N 45.4W
SHIP 40KTS 51KTS 61KTS 71KTS
DSHP 40KTS 51KTS 61KTS 71KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060916 1200 060917 1200 060918 1200 060919 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.7N 42.2W 20.5N 43.6W 23.7N 45.6W 27.5N 48.1W
BAMM 18.3N 42.5W 21.2N 45.2W 23.9N 49.2W 25.4N 52.4W
A98E 12.7N 48.3W 13.2N 51.5W 14.0N 53.7W 15.6N 55.3W
LBAR 16.2N 47.8W 17.8N 51.2W 19.0N 52.7W 20.7N 53.8W
SHIP 80KTS 92KTS 92KTS 92KTS
DSHP 80KTS 92KTS 92KTS 92KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.3N LONCUR = 36.0W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 20KT
LATM12 = 12.9N LONM12 = 31.9W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 = 19KT
LATM24 = 12.0N LONM24 = 28.0W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1003MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 350NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 75NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 75NM

13.3n.

[cycloneye]

14/1145 UTC 13.4N 35.6W T2.5/2.5 HELENE -- Atlantic Ocean


SSD has it at 13.4n

[cycloneye]

[wxman57]

14/1145 UTC 13.4N 35.6W T2.5/2.5 HELENE -- Atlantic Ocean


SSD has it at 13.4n

The center became much easier to see at 1245Z. I see it at 13.8N/35.9W. Slowly getting better organized.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM HELENE (AL082006) ON 20060914 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060914 1200 060915 0000 060915 1200 060916 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.2N 36.0W 13.8N 38.2W 14.7N 40.0W 16.2N 41.2W
BAMM 13.2N 36.0W 13.9N 38.3W 15.0N 40.1W 16.6N 41.4W
A98E 13.2N 36.0W 13.6N 40.0W 13.4N 43.4W 12.9N 46.2W
LBAR 13.2N 36.0W 13.9N 39.3W 14.7N 42.5W 15.4N 45.4W
SHIP 40KTS 51KTS 61KTS 71KTS
DSHP 40KTS 51KTS 61KTS 71KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060916 1200 060917 1200 060918 1200 060919 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.8N 42.1W 20.5N 43.5W 23.8N 45.5W 27.5N 48.0W
BAMM 18.3N 42.4W 21.2N 45.2W 24.0N 49.2W 25.4N 52.5W
A98E 12.7N 48.2W 13.2N 51.4W 14.0N 53.7W 15.6N 55.3W
LBAR 16.3N 47.8W 17.8N 51.2W 18.9N 52.6W 20.7N 53.8W
SHIP 80KTS 92KTS 93KTS 93KTS
DSHP 80KTS 92KTS 93KTS 93KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.2N LONCUR = 36.0W DIRCUR = 277DEG SPDCUR = 20KT
LATM12 = 12.9N LONM12 = 31.9W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 = 19KT
LATM24 = 12.0N LONM24 = 28.0W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1003MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 350NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 75NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 75NM

An update of the 12:00z models has now the center at 13.2n.Intensity is up to 40kts.

[jabber]

Ok... I think we have pretty much have seen that the pattern supports a recurvature (at some point). Can someone show me what the pattern would look like to support a west run. Just trying to learn what to look for in the future.

Thanks

[Bonedog]

Gloria:

WOW look familiar? From wikipedia: Hurricane Gloria was a powerful Cape Verde-type hurricane that formed during the 1985 Atlantic hurricane season and prowled the Atlantic Ocean from September 16 to September 28. Gloria reached Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale near the Bahamas, but weakened significantly by the time it made landfall on North Carolina's Outer Banks. From there, Gloria closely followed the Mid-Atlantic coastline and made a second landfall on Long Island, New York, and, after crossing the Long Island Sound, it made a third landfall in Connecticut.

Tracking steadily west-northwestward due to the strong subtropical ridge, the depression continued to strengthen and became Tropical Storm Gloria on the 17th. Conditions for tropical development deteriorated, causing Gloria to weaken to a tropical depression on the 18th. After it crossed 45°W on the 20th, the system was able to restrengthen to a tropical storm, and steadily intensified as it approached the Lesser Antilles. While 620 miles (1000 km) east-southeast of St. Croix, Gloria attained hurricane status.[1]

Moving westward, Gloria threatened much of the Leeward Islands, prompting the islands' respective governments to issue Hurricane Warnings in anticipation of the storm. A turn to the west-northwest occurred on September 22, and the hurricane passed 155 miles (250 km) to the north of Anegada, the northernmost island in the Lesser Antilles. A break in the subtropical ridge, caused by Tropical Storms Fabian and Henri, was responsible for the northward turn and caused Gloria to take a northwest track.





LI Express:


WOW Look Familiar? From wikipedia: The New England Hurricane of 1938 (or Great New England Hurricane or Long Island Express or simply The Great Hurricane of 1938) was the first major hurricane to strike New England since 1869. The storm formed near the coast of Africa in September of the 1938 Atlantic hurricane season, becoming a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale before making landfall as a Category 3 hurricane [3] on Long Island on September 21. The hurricane killed 500-700 people and caused $6.0 billion (2004 US dollars) in damages.

The hurricane storm surge caused immense damage in New England because it hit at high tide. It is the strongest hurricane to hit New England in recorded history.




Is there any chance of either one of these scenarios? I mean is there any synoptic pattern forming to cause this?

[carve]

How accurate is accuweather on tracking...they don,t show a recurve,i believe at least 5 days out?

[Meso]

Hrm.. I would say no... The way the thoughs are forcast,it looks like it will start to turn north and pass east of the bahamus and some models show it moving NE quite early after recurvature begins... I think someone said there is another trough moving through after the one forecast to lift it out,so even if it slips under the first one a US landfall is highly unlikely

[gatorcane]

so Helene seems very large. Is it normal to have such a large CV storm?

[Sanibel]

A better center has developed on visible.

[gatorcane]

she is still moving W as of the latest advisory, actually more west than the previous advisory..........

so where is the WNW movement the models have been showing since yeserday - looks nearly due west to me.

[gatorcane]

latest track shifted left yet again

[LAwxrgal]

I agree Meso. The current pattern suggests a recurve somewhere. The question, as was with Florence, is where?

[gatorcane]

center is also SOUTH of the previous advisory interesting...

[Lowpressure]

center is also SOUTH of the previous advisory interesting...

gatorcane, I hear you my friend. Keep in mind that if the synoptic pattern is in place for recurve, it does not matter if the center is 50 or even 100 miles south, it will curve when she hits the weakness. With that said, I have never been on the definite recurve side with this storm. Forward speed is faster than models predicted and it has taken longer to develop so far. Models are starting to show greater spread now and you can read NHC starting to be less sure without model consensus. I still say the best bet is recurving around 55-60 followed by a flattening out to the wnw after that until she slams into the east coast trough that will recurve her for good.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Like I said a couple of days ago; the models keep initializing the center further North than it is. I'm starting to think they may drop the ball on Helene. Hope I'm wrong.

[CrazyC83]

Like I said a couple of days ago; the models keep initializing the center further North than it is. I'm starting to think they may drop the ball on Helene. Hope I'm wrong.

I'm sensing the same too. I am not buying the recurve at this point.