Hurricane Helene - Cat. 3

[quandary]

I guess it would be fair though, once the storm has been initialized at 35kts or higher, to refer to it by its eventual name. TD 8 certainly looks a lot more consolidated and ready to stregthen now that it was about 12 hours ago.

[Evil Jeremy]

prepare some crow it its not helene.

what does that "Crow" statement mean, anyways?

[JonathanBelles]

prepare some crow it its not helene.

what does that "Crow" statement mean, anyways?

when you predict something and then it doesnt become true you eat crow.

[sma10]

prepare some crow it its not helene.

what does that "Crow" statement mean, anyways?

When someone makes a statement or prediction that turns out to be really wrong and is forced to eat their words, it's called "eating crow".

It's a phrase that is used TO DEATH here.

[Evil Jeremy]

ok, ok. thx!

[Zardoz]

When someone makes a statement or prediction that turns out to be really wrong and is forced to eat their words, it's called "eating crow"...

The assumption being, of course, that crows just can't be very good to eat...

[ConvergenceZone]

Even though this will be curving out to sea, it will be much more fun than the other 2 storms to track. It's forming earlier and actually looks like it's going to be a doozy!!!

Yep, this will be fun to track. I can't wait to see how strong this will get!

[CronkPSU]

it's official...it's helene

Statement as of 11:00 PM AST on September 13, 2006


...Tropical depression intensifies into Tropical Storm Helene...

At 1100 PM AST...0300z...the center of Tropical Storm Helene was
located near latitude 13.3 north...longitude 32.7 west or about 565
miles...910 km...west of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands.

[JonathanBelles]

just confirmed on the news

[Brent]

[Evil Jeremy]

steve lions just tannounced it.

[CronkPSU]

Statement as of 11:00 PM AST on September 13, 2006


infrared satellite imagery this evening indicates continued gradual
development with a distinct curved band on the northwestern
semi-Circle. Based upon unanimous Dvorak T-numbers of 2.5 and
earlier AMSU intensity estimates...the intensity is analyzed at 35
kt and is given the name Helene.


The tropical storm appears to have sped up with an initial motion of
285/19...though this is somewhat uncertain given the spread in
positions. Helene should continue west-northwestward for the next
day under the influence of a deep-layer ridge. Between 36 and 72
hours...a mid to upper trough induces a weakness in the ridge and
this may act to steer the system toward the northwest. After this
trough by-passes Helene...a west-northwestward track should resume
at days 4 and 5. All reliable guidance shows this stair-step
scenario...with NOGAPS being a modest outlier to the southwest of
the pack. The forecast track is near the model consensus and is to
the right of the previous forecast.

While there is a large Saharan air layer to the north and west of
Helene...total precipitable water analyses from CIRA suggest that
this very dry air is not reaching Helene's inner core. The
system's projected track should take it over warm water...through
abundant moisture and into light vertical shear for the next three
days. SHIPS and the FSU super-ensemble thus bring Helene up to
about 100 kt in three days. The GFDL...on the other hand...is
substantially weaker...likely because it depicts more shear being
imparted on Helene due to the aforementioned mid to upper trough.
At days 4 and 5...all guidance suggests the shear will pick up and
limit further intensification. The intensity forecast is close
to...but just below...both SHIPS and the FSU super-ensemble.


Forecast positions and Max winds


initial 14/0300z 13.3n 32.7w 35 kt
12hr VT 14/1200z 13.7n 35.0w 45 kt
24hr VT 15/0000z 14.7n 37.4w 55 kt
36hr VT 15/1200z 15.9n 39.5w 65 kt
48hr VT 16/0000z 17.4n 41.0w 75 kt
72hr VT 17/0000z 20.0n 43.5w 90 kt
96hr VT 18/0000z 21.5n 45.5w 95 kt
120hr VT 19/0000z 22.5n 49.0w 85 kt


$$
forecaster Avila/landsea

[Josephine96]

I dont think it's gonna go out to sea that fast.. It may make it past some of the Islands.. but won't make it all the way across.. unless the ridge builds in significantly

[Andrew92]

Maybe (and hopefully) I'm going up the wrong tree when I say this, but the 5-day forecast path looks a lot like Isabel in her early life. Then again, most storms that follow an almost-northwest path like Isabel did go out to sea. Hoping Helene is a FISH.

-Andrew92

[Josephine96]

Bring on a long tracker!

[Brent]

Maybe (and hopefully) I'm going up the wrong tree when I say this, but the 5-day forecast path looks a lot like Isabel in her early life. Then again, most storms that follow an almost-northwest path like Isabel did go out to sea. Hoping Helene is a FISH.

-Andrew92

That slight westward turn at the end did raise my interest a bit.

[Derek Ortt]

the GFDL seems to unrealistically slow the storm down in the first 12 hours, for reasons I am not sure of and has a track way out in right field.

That seems like a forecast I'd give to an enemy in a war, as it has little value by the looks of it and has really threw the CONU a curveball

[cycloneye]

[JtSmarts]

Looks like Helene could become a fairly large storm like her sister Florence.

[Sanibel]

Gordon should start pulling Helene up any minute.