Hurricane Helene - Cat. 3

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#601 Postby Bgator » Wed Sep 13, 2006 8:01 pm

I think the storm is still moving near 275, the center has just been reforming to the north...I dont agree with the 285 motion...
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#602 Postby sma10 » Wed Sep 13, 2006 8:01 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:My guess for the chances:

15% pass through islands, stay in Atlantic (i.e. Hugo)

20% enter Caribbean/Gulf (i.e. Ivan)


You're giving this a 35% chance of affecting a landmass?
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#603 Postby CronkPSU » Wed Sep 13, 2006 8:02 pm

whoa...ships up to 100kts
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#604 Postby Bgator » Wed Sep 13, 2006 8:05 pm

Does anyone else think this storm is still moving west, and the models intitate it at 285 because of the reformations..?!
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#605 Postby JonathanBelles » Wed Sep 13, 2006 8:09 pm

NRL has it up to 35 kts
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#606 Postby Normandy » Wed Sep 13, 2006 8:15 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Normandy wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-wv.html

Looking at these loops, I find it hard to believe this TD will turn NW so fast....I see a ridge building over the system right now and it is evident imo. I am more inclined to agree with Derek's forecast than the NHC's right now. Also, wasn't this TD recurving so fast dependent on Gordon moving very slowly? Well its moving out as we speak (along with the ULL).


I don't want to speak for Derek, but I think his disagreement with the NHC track is not that TD 8 won't revurve, but that the recurving will occur west of 50W instead of east of 50W. Derek, you're not saying that TD 8/Helene is a threat to the east U.S. Coast, are you?


Im not saying its a US East coast threat yet, but I think a recurve so far from the islands isn't likely imo.
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#607 Postby Brent » Wed Sep 13, 2006 8:15 pm

Helene!!!!!

:woo: :hoola:
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#608 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Sep 13, 2006 8:19 pm

Yeah Helene the 8th named storm. This thing looking good!
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#609 Postby Scorpion » Wed Sep 13, 2006 8:21 pm

Regardless of Helene affecting landmasses...she should put on quite a show.
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#610 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Wed Sep 13, 2006 8:28 pm

The season officially beats 1997! and more are likely to come..
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#611 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 13, 2006 8:35 pm

Brent wrote:Helene!!!!!

:woo: :hoola:


Not so fast.There is nothing official yet that TD 8 has been upgraded.Until that happens,storm2k will mantain the title of thread with TD 8. :)
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#612 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Sep 13, 2006 8:43 pm

Still 08L.NONAME.
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#613 Postby Brent » Wed Sep 13, 2006 8:45 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Still 08L.NONAME.


True, but it says 35 kt and 1005 mb.
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#614 Postby SouthFloridawx » Wed Sep 13, 2006 8:46 pm

Brent wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:Still 08L.NONAME.


True, but it says 35 kt and 1005 mb.

Well perhaps they wish to see consistency since we're only going by satelite estimates.
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#615 Postby Scorpion » Wed Sep 13, 2006 8:49 pm

The NHC WILL upgrade this at 11, no doubt.
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#616 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 13, 2006 8:50 pm

But the header of the 00:00z Models was Tropical Storm Eight Instead of Tropical Storm Helene That's a clue that they are on the fence to upgrade but they can wait 6 more hours to see more data overnight.
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#617 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Wed Sep 13, 2006 8:52 pm

Looking at SAT, this deserves an upgrade!
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#618 Postby flyingphish » Wed Sep 13, 2006 8:54 pm

This is probably the first and last serious CV player. I will be very relieved when recurve is more defined. This may be a strong storm. I do not like the westward bend at the end of the five day. It only takes ONE.. to seriously mess up life for people. If this system is simply a very strong fish. That is OK.
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#619 Postby sma10 » Wed Sep 13, 2006 9:00 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:The season officially beats 1997!


Boy, that's not saying a lot! 1997 stunk.
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#620 Postby JonathanBelles » Wed Sep 13, 2006 9:22 pm

prepare some crow it its not helene.
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