Areas in BOC and Eastern Caribbean

Stratosphere747 · #41 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Wed Sep 13, 2006 5:12 pm

Good ol Nam..

Its had it out for Texas this year..

Extremeweatherguy · #42 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Wed Sep 13, 2006 5:22 pm

Stratosphere747 wrote:Good ol Nam..

Its had it out for Texas this year..

I agree with you there. Seems like the NAM has had a bullseye over the state all year. Lucky for us though, it doesn't seem like the model is too good a playing darts. :wink:

Zardoz · #43 Postby **Zardoz** » Wed Sep 13, 2006 7:27 pm

Almost perfectly-round circulation in the BOC at the moment, but real naked:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

Did it drift slightly south, as well?

Galvestongirl · #44 Postby **Galvestongirl** » Wed Sep 13, 2006 9:50 pm

is it headed to texas? lol, I sure will be glad when I can shout out............hurricane season is over for SE Texas.

#45 Postby **CrazyC83** » Wed Sep 13, 2006 10:36 pm

The wave over the Windwards looks pretty decent, I wouldn't be surprised to see 95L posted on that soon.

Zardoz · #46 Postby **Zardoz** » Wed Sep 13, 2006 10:58 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:The wave over the Windwards looks pretty decent, I wouldn't be surprised to see 95L posted on that soon.

It does? Kinda looks like it's breaking up and moving north:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-avn.html

Could something still develop from this?

boca · #47 Postby **boca** » Thu Sep 14, 2006 7:14 am

Both area that I mentioned yesterday went poof,what a surprise. I'm going out on a limb and saying that theirs a 80 to 90% chance that nothing will develop in the Gulf or Caribbean the rest of the season. The 10 to 20% is that small chance that a front will get down there and something will form on the tail end and by that time the shear will probably be picking up in those areas again.

Hyperstorm · #48 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Thu Sep 14, 2006 7:38 am

Boca...

Don't be so quick to call out for dissipation. The tropical wave is still there and is firing up new convection over the Eastern Caribbean. As I mentioned earlier, the GFS and NOGAPS have joined in forecasting a large upper-level anticyclone to develop throughout the Greater Antilles and the Caribbean starting tomorrow. If that verifies, this tropical wave will have a near perfect setup throughout its journey across the Caribbean. That being said, the wave will need to become better defined with colder convection to see any type of low pressure form.

I'll be watching...

boca · #49 Postby **boca** » Thu Sep 14, 2006 7:48 am

Hyperstorm I see that its refiring and lets see if this area can make it towards the Western Caribbean without hostile shear developing.

Zardoz · #50 Postby **Zardoz** » Thu Sep 14, 2006 11:02 am

boca wrote:...I see that it's refiring...

Yes it is:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rb.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

#51 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Sep 14, 2006 11:04 am

Hyperstorm wrote:Boca...

Don't be so quick to call out for dissipation. The tropical wave is still there and is firing up new convection over the Eastern Caribbean. As I mentioned earlier, the GFS and NOGAPS have joined in forecasting a large upper-level anticyclone to develop throughout the Greater Antilles and the Caribbean starting tomorrow. If that verifies, this tropical wave will have a near perfect setup throughout its journey across the Caribbean. That being said, the wave will need to become better defined with colder convection to see any type of low pressure form.

I'll be watching...

As always I enjoy your analysis - its something to watch for sure I agree.

#52 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Sep 14, 2006 11:05 am

Boca can we change the title to "Eastern Caribbean Wave" as the BOC is dead right now.

Zardoz · #53 Postby **Zardoz** » Thu Sep 14, 2006 11:14 am

gatorcane wrote:...the BOC is dead right now.

Nothing can come of that twist? :

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

Is it just upper level?

EDIT: Pressure's rising -

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055

Never mind...

Areas in BOC and Eastern Caribbean

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