Areas in BOC and Eastern Caribbean

piggy · #21 Postby **piggy** » Wed Sep 13, 2006 1:23 pm

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055

Stormavoider · #22 Postby **Stormavoider** » Wed Sep 13, 2006 2:07 pm

[url=http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&map=latlon&lat=22&quality=100%&lon=-93&info=vis&zoom=1&width=2800&height=2000&type=Animation&numframes=10&palette=ir.pal]This visible loop[/url] makes my untrained eye believe this may be low level rotation in the BOC.

Zardoz · #23 Postby **Zardoz** » Wed Sep 13, 2006 2:32 pm

Stormavoider wrote:[url=http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&map=latlon&lat=22&quality=100%&lon=-93&info=vis&zoom=1&width=2800&height=2000&type=Animation&numframes=10&palette=ir.pal]This visible loop[/url] makes my untrained eye believe this may be low level rotation in the BOC.

Another view of it:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

Seems to be worth keeping an eye on, one would think.

.

Johnny · #24 Postby **Johnny** » Wed Sep 13, 2006 2:49 pm

#25 Postby **skysummit** » Wed Sep 13, 2006 2:51 pm

Johnny wrote:ULL?

Nope...I just looked at WV and upper air charts. I don't see any evidence of an ULL there.

CourierPR · #26 Postby **CourierPR** » Wed Sep 13, 2006 3:04 pm

Mods, perhaps we now need two separate threads.

CourierPR · #27 Postby **CourierPR** » Wed Sep 13, 2006 3:07 pm

The area near the Wndwards seems to be slowly organizing.

Johnny · #28 Postby **Johnny** » Wed Sep 13, 2006 3:14 pm

Well if it's not a ULL then their is definately something there. Circulation is easily picked up on vis. satellite....the Bay of Campeche that is.

SWFLA_CANE · #29 Postby **SWFLA_CANE** » Wed Sep 13, 2006 3:17 pm

CourierPR wrote:The area near the Wndwards seems to be slowly organizing.

It looks as if it moving due north.

Windsurfer_NYC · #30 Postby **Windsurfer_NYC** » Wed Sep 13, 2006 3:20 pm

Johnny wrote:Well if it's not a ULL then their is definately something there. Circulation is easily picked up on vis. satellite....the Bay of Campeche that is.

The only thing it's lacking is convection.... we'll see what happens tonight.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/avn-l.jpg

ROCK · #31 Postby **ROCK** » Wed Sep 13, 2006 3:24 pm

Johnny wrote:Well if it's not a ULL then their is definately something there. Circulation is easily picked up on vis. satellite....the Bay of Campeche that is.

it not a ULL. I have been harping on this in the local thread. Both NAM ( I know not good for tropics) and MM5 have been hinting at something in the BOC the last couple of days. I havent look at todays run. Bears watching......always wanted to say that.... :lol:

the vis loop looks to me like a mid-level feature. I cannot see any lower clouds streaming into the mid level swirl. That is of course as of right now...

Just looked at the latest guidance. The Euro has a low in the BOC at 144hr moving north at 168. The latest NAM has some energy moving north at 84hr. The GFS showing some energy down there as well.

EURO 144hr to 168hr
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 312!!step/

NAM 54hr still rolling in...
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _054.shtml

GFS 144
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _144.shtml

now all we need is a LLC to form....

Zardoz · #32 Postby **Zardoz** » Wed Sep 13, 2006 3:35 pm

CourierPR wrote:The area near the Windwards seems to be slowly organizing.

It's growing like the proverbial weed, but no sign of rotation yet:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-ir2.html

Damar91 · #33 Postby **Damar91** » Wed Sep 13, 2006 4:09 pm

Hope this moisture doesn't hang around long enough for Helene to get a hold of it.

#34 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Wed Sep 13, 2006 4:23 pm

Looks like a surface low has formed in the BOC, if convection increases tonight we may have trouble lurking in the Gulf. The Buoy in the BOC definitely shows signs of a low! 29.81" and falling rapidly.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055

Stratosphere747 · #35 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Wed Sep 13, 2006 4:52 pm

Dean....

I don't see any indications of a surface low in the BOC. Those measurements from that station are not at all that unusual.

ROCK · #36 Postby **ROCK** » Wed Sep 13, 2006 4:57 pm

Stratosphere747 wrote:Dean....

I don't see any indications of a surface low in the BOC. Those measurements from that station are not at all that unusual.

normal evening pressure falls for what I can tell. Not concerned so much now as the convection has dissipated. Lets see if tonight during the DM something gets fired up again.....

Sanibel · #37 Postby **Sanibel** » Wed Sep 13, 2006 4:57 pm

Very weak naked spiral near 21N - 94W

TOO WEAK

Stratosphere747 · #38 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Wed Sep 13, 2006 5:04 pm

I need to take a bit of time and understand more the interaction of a system just off the coast of Mexico and how it impacts anything trying to form in the GOM, and specifically the BOC.

#39 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Wed Sep 13, 2006 5:09 pm

Stratosphere747 wrote:Dean....

I don't see any indications of a surface low in the BOC. Those measurements from that station are not at all that unusual.

I checked the buoy to the north which happens to be much closer to the front now exiting the TX. coast and it had higher pressure I believe at 29.84" and checking the Mexican coastal obs all have higher pressure.

Also yesterday at the same time the pressure was 29.85"

#40 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Wed Sep 13, 2006 5:11 pm

The 06z NAM spins up a 1008 mb low and heads it for Texas.........

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

12z NAM pretty much the same thing.

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/loop.etauspcp.html

Something to keep an eye on like everyone is saying. If convection increases tonight it looks plausible.

Areas in BOC and Eastern Caribbean

Station 42055 - Bay of Campeche (Pressure falling)

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