Hurricane Helene - Cat. 3

[cycloneye]

and the AF is at 13.6N

12.6n
12.2n
13.1n
13.6n

Which will be the one that will be the principal center that consolidates?

[HURAKAN]

It may have many centers, but the system seems to be organizing pretty well with very defined banding to the north and south.

[Scorpion]

Looks to be a rather large hurricane once it gets going.

[sma10]

Well, in talking about the possibility of a long-tracker, I for one haven't meant to imply anything more than a potential threat for the leeward islands at this point.

And in fact, x-y, the potential threat for the leeward islands may actually be lessened for two reasons: 1) the further north location of the center this afternoon and 2) the fact that TD8 is clearly no longer moving south of west but actually more like 275 now.

The Euro (who I thought was completely out of left field) now doesn't look as crazy anymore.

[AnnularCane]

She is beautiful! Can't help wondering what is in her future.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Her banding features are beatiful, but her center is void of any convection. At the current moment she probably won't be upgraded until the 11 PM.

[Bgator]

Heres CIMSS DVorak T Numbers:
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 13 SEP 2006 Time : 194500 UTC
Lat : 12:04:43 N Lon : 29:37:54 W (12.1N 29.6W)


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.5 /1005.0mb/ 35.0kt


BTW i see a center near 12.4-12.5N

[Nimbus]

The north atlantic water vapor loop shows all the features clearly.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/loop-wv.html

You can clearly see where the models had thought a weakness would develop dropping down near 23N 45W. Both Gordon and the ULL to Gordons northeast are gaining lattitude. The western edge of the subtropical ridge that embeds TD8 is now pushing west through the islands.

Since the ridge seems a little stronger than first forecast TD 8 may be able to Limbo under the weakness suffering only a bit of shear. Seems possible she could effect the islands in that scenario.

The big steering feature the models are depending on long term is the trough that is currently sweeping down along the gulf coast from the great lakes. The trough so far is not digging into the gulf and the whole mess is moving east followed by a ridge.

Too far out to predict exactly how far west the subtropical ridge is going to build.

Short term TD8 has some dry air and then some shear, it will be fun to watch the old girl Limbo!

[Bgator]

At the moment i will think that there will be a recurve near 50W but i am not leaving the possibility for a CONUS hit totally impossible...I still think it is possible...we will see..

[jaxfladude]

I am very new to this but my heart is in the right place. I was looking into model tracks and came upon this. Seems interesting how many have made landfall coming from close to where TD8 is.

http://img87.imageshack.us/img87/2806/a ... imohf3.gif

And one of those tracks was DORA 1964
But the good news so far is that TD8 will will likely become a fish storm..but things can change..........

[gatorcane]

ut oh...track is bending left on some of the models

[wxman57]

Heres CIMSS DVorak T Numbers:
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 13 SEP 2006 Time : 194500 UTC
Lat : 12:04:43 N Lon : 29:37:54 W (12.1N 29.6W)


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.5 /1005.0mb/ 35.0kt


BTW i see a center near 12.4-12.5N

I don't see anything that far south. Current estimate consensus at the office is 13.0-13.2N and around 30W. But it makes no difference in the future track.

[sma10]

ut oh...track is bending left on some of the models

Which models are these that are "bending left?"

And why would that necessarily mean "ut oh?"

[Bgator]

Looking at some of the globals it shows a ridge building in at th eend of the forecast period with only a very small weakness, if it misses it it will go west...I think it was the GFS.....

[wxman57]

Here are the latest model plots. Fairly tight consensus for moving north of 20N around 45W or even farther east. No Caribbean threat indicated. The slight bend WNW at the end will be due to a brief period when high pressure may block it a little. But another approaching trof should pick it up and turn it out to sea.

[Windtalker1]

and the AF is at 13.6N

12.6n
12.2n
13.1n
13.6n

Which will be the one that will be the principal center that consolidates?

12.6n

[gatorcane]

ut oh...track is bending left on some of the models

Which models are these that are "bending left?"

And why would that necessarily mean "ut oh?"

the recurve out to sea is definitely not set in stone and this latest discussion leaves the possibility of no recurvature still.

[Windtalker1]

more & more models are treading WEST at the end

[fci]

Pretty tightly clustered models.

[gatorcane]

latest NHC guidance is really showing a bend to the left at the end. Lets really hope the trough that is projected to dive down in 10+ days is really going to happen in the Western Atlantic -