Hurricane Helene - Cat. 3

[sma10]

As long the pattern persists we could have ten storms out there all turning north. Let the Tampa Bay forcefield protect us all.

Similarly, 1995 was a very good year for CV waves. It seemed every day another system sprang up. Although a couple of nasty storms struck the NE Caribbean, the storms never even sniffed the U.S. East coast.

It's funny how in the last couple of years there have been a lot of U.S. strikes because the Western Atlantic ridge has been so strong, yet it's been really quiet out around CV. Conversely, the several years prior the CV train was quite active, but the U.S. was protected by a persistent East Coast trough.

God help us when we finally have a season with an overactive CV season with a persistent East Coast ridge.

[Derek Ortt]

2004 was the year when we had an active CV region without the EC trough

The months of August and September were just as active as 1995 (10 storms in each of the two months)

[cycloneye]

TD 8 is starting to come to view in the Central Atlantic area pic.

[Derek Ortt]

that appears to be a squall line ahead of the depression

The depression is still back near 24.5W

[Weathermaster]

I see that the high pressure is traveling with the depression and that the ULL is going west and north away from the TD. Why the rationale of a weakness in the High?

[Damar91]

wxman57, looking at the north atlantic water vapor loop, does it seem like that trough by the great lakes is not digging down as far as the other one? And would this effect Helena any differently if that was the case?Just a novices viewpoint. Thanks for your comments.

[x-y-no]

18Z run of the GFS is again turning it NW starting at about 40W. Fairly similar to the 12Z run.


I have to say, I'm sitting here entertaining the possibility of a long-runner scenario here, although I'd give it low probability.

The GFS is recurving Gordon sharply in Florence's wake, but after 48 hours, it stalls him at about 30N 55W or so, and there he sits for the next couple of days. At the low level, there's ridging to his east. At mid-level, there's ridging both to his east and to his southwest. Now, if instead of stalling, he were to continue NNE, that mid-level ridge to his southwest could build in behind him and turn Helene back westward again.

Like I said, fairly low probability - the ridge doesn't look super strong (but then the GFS has a habit of under-playing mid-level ridges).

Here's a link to the 500mb large format frame of the 18Z to show what I'm talking about. The weak mid-level ridge I'm talking about is centered between the Bahames and Gordon. Imagine Gordon out of the way, and that ridge built somewhat stronger behind him and the steering would be quite different.

[Derek Ortt]

depends if Gordon's outflow creates a larger trough to its east.

The large UL actually is not heading toward TD 8 (for the first time this season, a UL is moving away from a TC)

[Epsilon_Fan]

yikes, this one popped up quick! She looks really good

[Jim Cantore]

I called it! I said at school at about 10am that this would become TD 8. I actually got something right.

Hows the sheer near/ahead of it?

[jusforsean]

I remember with wilma, and no i am not -removed- in any way here simply stating a memory that at one point the models all had her away from florida and then all of a sudden one was pointing our way and everyone argued nay , no way and then by the next day the other models followed, i have been trying to search the posts to fing the graphics but i cant seem to. Pont is that so far out, i suppose that the models can drasticlly change as seen with wilma.

[Derek Ortt]

for Wilma, the models always said south Florida... the only question that I can remember was the timing, which kept changing (from Sunday to Monday, to Tuesday, then back to early Monday)

as for TD 8... have been looking at the GFS 500mb heights and it develops a narrow weakness between two ridges. This thing had better take the weakness or it appears as if it will be coming west for a while. Only two scenarios I can see are recurvature and a west runner

Also, this does not look the greatest this evening... looks like Florence when it was struggling

[cycloneye]

Agree Derek about TD 8 not looking to be Helene tonight as convection is not concentrated over the low,maybe some easterly shear and some dry intrution.

[cycloneye]

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT 08L

INITIAL TIME 18Z SEP 12

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 12.1 23.1 270./14.0
6 12.6 23.8 304./ 8.1
12 12.9 24.9 287./10.6
18 13.1 27.2 274./23.0
24 13.3 29.2 276./19.2
30 13.5 31.4 276./21.1
36 13.6 33.2 272./18.0
42 13.8 35.0 279./17.6
48 14.0 36.5 277./14.8
54 14.6 38.2 290./17.2
60 15.5 39.8 298./17.8
66 16.3 41.3 297./16.6
72 16.9 42.6 297./13.8
78 17.5 43.6 301./11.3
84 18.1 44.6 298./10.7
90 18.8 45.3 315./10.7
96 19.4 46.4 297./10.9
102 19.8 47.1 300./ 8.1
108 20.1 47.8 297./ 7.1
114 20.8 48.4 316./ 8.6
120 21.5 49.0 317./ 9.5
126 22.0 49.7 313./ 8.1

18z GFDL.Another recurver.

[SouthFloridawx]

for Wilma, the models always said south Florida... the only question that I can remember was the timing, which kept changing (from Sunday to Monday, to Tuesday, then back to early Monday)

as for TD 8... have been looking at the GFS 500mb heights and it develops a narrow weakness between two ridges. This thing had better take the weakness or it appears as if it will be coming west for a while. Only two scenarios I can see are recurvature and a west runner

Also, this does not look the greatest this evening... looks like Florence when it was struggling

Your referring to the weakness at 45 West correct?

[jaxfladude]

for Wilma, the models always said south Florida... the only question that I can remember was the timing, which kept changing (from Sunday to Monday, to Tuesday, then back to early Monday)

as for TD 8... have been looking at the GFS 500mb heights and it develops a narrow weakness between two ridges. This thing had better take the weakness or it appears as if it will be coming west for a while. Only two scenarios I can see are re-curvature and a west runner

Also, this does not look the greatest this evening... looks like Florence when it was struggling

and here I thought we are going to have a TRIPLE PLAY OF FISH STORMS!

[Bgator]

The GFDL takes it way to far north early in the forecast in my opinion....

[Evil Jeremy]

why isnt the Nogaps being activated?

[SouthFloridawx]

why isnt the Nogaps being activated?

The 12Z Nogaps didn't initialize the system very well.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... rp&tau=000

[abajan]

Bermudians looking at the 5 day outlook for TD8 must be starting to say to themselves, "Not again!"