The wave following Helene

Zardoz · #1 Postby **Zardoz** » Tue Sep 12, 2006 3:46 pm

Will it be a clone of Tropical Depression 8 (soon to be Tropical Storm Helene), or will it be even bigger? :

Eumetsat

More importantly, will it exit the coast of Africa at a lower lat than TD8/Helene, or follow it out into the middle of the North Atlantic?

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Ptarmigan · #2 Postby **Ptarmigan** » Tue Sep 12, 2006 3:51 pm

Hurricane season is starting to pick up now. I saw one model that TD 8 could be a major hurricane.

#3 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Tue Sep 12, 2006 3:53 pm

The interaction of the two will be interesting to say the least. Depending on if it develops. GFS develops it but, farther north than TD08. Originally TD8 was forecasted by GFS to come off farther north and move quite a bit farther north than this system.

#4 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Sep 12, 2006 4:00 pm

its not off the African coast yet, and is not even and invest but I say fish. Everything right now is going fishing unless some big time changes happen to the synoptic pattern out there. Weaknesses are everywhere.

Sanibel · #5 Postby **Sanibel** » Tue Sep 12, 2006 4:02 pm

Ditto Gatorcane.

#6 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Tue Sep 12, 2006 4:09 pm

gatorcane wrote:its not off the African coast yet, and is not even and invest but I say fish. Everything right now is going fishing unless some big time changes happen to the synoptic pattern out there. Weaknesses are everywhere.

Either was TD08 a couple of days ago but, we were talking about it then. So what if there are weakness's everywhere... I don't care if it goes fishing. Were talking about possible development in the future.

Derek Ortt · #7 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Tue Sep 12, 2006 5:14 pm

that wave should be a nice pick for TD 8

should allow TD 8 to break free of the SAL, which it is contending with right now

ROCK · #8 Postby **ROCK** » Tue Sep 12, 2006 5:30 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:that wave should be a nice pick for TD 8

should allow TD 8 to break free of the SAL, which it is contending with right now

that would be a moving pick and illegal!!! :lol:

wxmann_91 · #9 Postby **wxmann_91** » Tue Sep 12, 2006 5:35 pm

gatorcane wrote:its not off the African coast yet, and is not even and invest but I say fish. Everything right now is going fishing unless some big time changes happen to the synoptic pattern out there. Weaknesses are everywhere.

Correct. Climo argues recurvature, which means it would take a significant anomaly to prevent that.

Zardoz · #10 Postby **Zardoz** » Tue Sep 12, 2006 11:10 pm

Looks to be a virtual clone of TD8:

Should exit the coast at almost exactly the same lat:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/met8/eatl/loop-avn.html

Eumetsat

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Meso · #11 Postby **Meso** » Wed Sep 13, 2006 6:35 am

My oh my.. I know it's far out,but that's a pretty sturdy looking ridge...

Patrick99 · #12 Postby **Patrick99** » Wed Sep 13, 2006 7:20 am

If these waves are eventually going to do anything other than recurve over open ocean, I think they need to be more of the "stealth" variety. These things would have a better shot of making it all the way across if the SAL *did* put the hurt on them for a little while, IMO.

#13 Postby **fci** » Wed Sep 13, 2006 7:02 pm

With the size of TD #8 wouldn't one suspect that it might eat up activity around it like Florence did?

Zardoz · #14 Postby **Zardoz** » Wed Sep 13, 2006 7:14 pm

fci wrote:With the size of TD #8 wouldn't one suspect that it might eat up activity around it like Florence did?

Like SouthFloridawx said, the interaction is going to be something to see, that's for sure. They're both really good-sized, and pretty close together:

Eumetsat: About to hit the Atlantic

I don't know, but is it maybe a little bigger, even, than TD8 was at that point?

#15 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Wed Sep 13, 2006 7:14 pm

if this also devlopes, it will probaly be a fish.

Zardoz · #16 Postby **Zardoz** » Wed Sep 13, 2006 7:41 pm

It appears to have lost all the circulation it had over land:

It also appears to have gained a lot of ground on TD8...

Scorpion · #17 Postby **Scorpion** » Wed Sep 13, 2006 8:23 pm

It's looking pretty good. Too bad Helene is so big.

ConvergenceZone · #18 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Wed Sep 13, 2006 8:49 pm

I agree, everything coming off Africa(especially this time of year) will be a fish. If you want to look for landfalling storms, don't look at the caost of Africa(although I'm happy they will be fish, the economy can't afford another landfalling hurricane)...

I think we will be very very fortunate this year. I see no evidence whatsoever that a hurricane will effect the USA this year. As I said before, too much shear close to the USA.....
This really does feel like a blessed year as far as storms are concerned. We are sooooooooooo EXTREMELY LUCKY!
but we better not get use to it, this kind of GREAT LUCK will NOT happen 2 years in a row... So we should enjoy it while we can! 8-)

#19 Postby **Cookiely** » Wed Sep 13, 2006 9:12 pm

Let's face the facts. People in general, the insurance companies and the government need a break this year to recover. We have been truly blessed if this season continues without a landfalling hurricane.

HurricaneHunter914 · #20 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Wed Sep 13, 2006 9:20 pm

Definitly. Ever since 2004 FEMA has been a failure.

The wave following Helene

The wave following Helene

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