Hurricane Helene - Cat. 3

[Windtalker1]

Still see 4 wanting to keep it WNW

Keep in mind that not all models are created equally. The NHC places more weight and emphasis on certain models. They very much like to concentrate on the GFDL and Globals for their track forecasts, and these are showing unanimous consensus towards re-curve. At least, that is what they show now.

I am not arguing the fact on a re-curve but I refuse to say it will until i see a concesus.

[skysummit]

I thought this could be "the" one since before the season started.

?? Based on....? Tarot cards or dart board?

Just the name, that's it! Before the season, when I saw "Helene", I immediately thought the name fell within the groups of Audrey, Betsy, Katrina, Wilma, Camille, etc....you know....those MEAN girls

[Brent]

I know many of you don't care about the islands but Georges (1998) killed 603 people and caused nearly $6 billion of damage, mostly in PR and Hispaniola..

Yes, Georges was very devastating to the Greater Antilles. In fact, it was the Greater Antilles alone that protected the Keys and probably the Gulf Coast from a tragic hit. As I recall, the upper level environment for Georges during his trek through the islands was ideal. It was land interaction ONLY that prevented him from being a catastrophic hurricane heading into the Gulf.

I remember Georges was supposed to get back to a major hurricane in the Gulf. Did something prevent that?

I believe it's because it never fully recovered from travelling over Hispanola and Cuba.

[brunota2003]

Heres the 36 knot wind report from a ship...answers our questions:

A SHIP REPORT FROM A
VESSEL WITH CALL SIGN OVZV2 OF NORTHERLY WINDS OF 36 KT AND A
PRESSURE OF 1008.7 MB SOME 180 N MI NORTHWEST OF THE ESTIMATED
CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS WIND OBSERVATION WAS IN
CONVECTION...PROBABLY A LOCALIZED SQUALL...AND NOT REPRESENTATIVE
OF THE STRENGTH OF THE CIRCULATION. MOREOVER...A QUALITY CONTROL
CHECK OF THIS SHIP BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER INDICATED THAT
ITS WIND MEASUREMENTS WERE A FEW KNOTS TOO HIGH AND ITS PRESSURE
HAS BEEN RUNNING 1-2 MB LOW. HAVING SAID ALL THAT...THE SYSTEM IS
NEARING TROPICAL STORM STATUS AND WILL PROBABLY BE NAMED TONIGHT OR
ON WEDNESDAY.

[cycloneye]

[sma10]

I am not arguing the fact on a re-curve but I refuse to say it will until i see a concesus.

The only plausible scenario I could see where TD8 doesn't recurve, would be if it took a much more southern path in the short term. Say, perhaps, an extended W-WSW motion so that in a few days it was located at 10N 40W instead of 15N 40W. At that point, when it begins its northward component it has a much further distance to pull north. If that were to occur, it would STILL most likely recurve unless the added distance moving north allows time for the ridge to build back in and direct TD8 to the West.

Only problem is, none of what I just wrote has any model support whatsoever.

[dwg71]

75 - 95% chance of a recurve well before CONUS, imo.

[Evil Jeremy]

i still dont see what will make the ridge weaken for the recurve to happen!

[Swimdude]

I'm cheering for 3 re-curves in a ROW!

[sma10]

i still dont see what will make the ridge weaken for the recurve to happen!

Actually, it looks like Gordon will have a little something to do with that. Followed by a trough coming off the east coast.

[Thunder44]

i still dont see what will make the ridge weaken for the recurve to happen!

Florence and Gordon are doing alot now to breakdown the ridge in Western Atlantic. Another system coming off the east coast later this week will prevent the ridge from building back in. At the same time the East Atlantic ridge will be strenghtening and may force a turn north before 50W.

[gatorcane]

looks to be going fishing yet again.....

I'm fairly confident it will actually

[curtadams]

[The only plausible scenario I could see where TD8 doesn't recurve, would be if it took a much more southern path in the short term. Say, perhaps, an extended W-WSW motion so that in a few days it was located at 10N 40W instead of 15N 40W. At that point, when it begins its northward component it has a much further distance to pull north. If that were to occur, it would STILL most likely recurve unless the added distance moving north allows time for the ridge to build back in and direct TD8 to the West.

Only problem is, none of what I just wrote has any model support whatsoever.

Actually an earlier GFS run had TD8 move WSW for some distance - S of 10N IIRC- and still recurved it sharply north out to sea around 55W. Right now the models see no ridging W of the mid-Atlantic and pretty much expect any storm in the Central Atlantic to go north.

[msbee]

sure hope you guys are right1

[Dean4Storms]

One thing to note if TD8 struggles to deepen then we could see it move more westward.

[boca]

As long the pattern persists we could have ten storms out there all turning north. Let the Tampa Bay forcefield protect us all.

[wxman57]

I don't think I'm seeing what everyone else is seeing....I don't see a major curve to the NNW here but a heading of WNW on 8 of the models, and 1 even curving back to the west at the end. May be too low to get a major curve to the North like Flo & Gordon.

You have to know which models to look at, Windtalker1. Simple trajectory models like the BAMD, BAMM, and BAMS do not perform well when there are changing steering currents in the path of a storm. So the BAMs won't do well in this situation. The LBAR shouldn't be used for anything. That leaves the major dynamic models which do take into account the moving trofs/ridges in the storm's path. Of these dynamic models, it's rare to see such tight consensus in a recurve. Now the full northward movement is around day 6, so you're only seeing the start of the turn on days 4-5.

In order for the future Helene to continue moving westward toward the Caribbean Sea or the east U.S. Coast, there will have to be high pressure to its north to steer it in that direction. No global model shows the Bermuda high ridging westward. Instead, they show a deepening trof in the mid Atlantic. The only chance for the storm to NOT make the turn is if it stays way south. But that won't mean it'll continue moving westward, as there still won't be much to move it westward. It just may linger around, stalled for a few days waiting for the next trof to pick it up. But there are no signs of a building ridge in the central Atlantic to push it west.

Here are the latest (18Z) dynamic model runs. I left the 12Z GFDL in there, even though it initialized too far north.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Man have the tropics become active all of a sudden. First Florence came from Afrika, then Florence got busy and had Gorden and now Afrika has given birth to TD8. Not only that Afrika has another potential wave coming.

[Damar91]

I don't think I'm seeing what everyone else is seeing....I don't see a major curve to the NNW here but a heading of WNW on 8 of the models, and 1 even curving back to the west at the end. May be too low to get a major curve to the North like Flo & Gordon.

You have to know which models to look at, Windtalker1. Simple trajectory models like the BAMD, BAMM, and BAMS do not perform well when there are changing steering currents in the path of a storm. So the BAMs won't do well in this situation. The LBAR shouldn't be used for anything. That leaves the major dynamic models which do take into account the moving trofs/ridges in the storm's path. Of these dynamic models, it's rare to see such tight consensus in a recurve. Now the full northward movement is around day 6, so you're only seeing the start of the turn on days 4-5.

In order for the future Helene to continue moving westward toward the Caribbean Sea or the east U.S. Coast, there will have to be high pressure to its north to steer it in that direction. No global model shows the Bermuda high ridging westward. Instead, they show a deepening trof in the mid Atlantic. The only chance for the storm to NOT make the turn is if it stays way south. But that won't mean it'll continue moving westward, as there still won't be much to move it westward. It just may linger around, stalled for a few days waiting for the next trof to pick it up. But there are no signs of a building ridge in the central Atlantic to push it west.

Here are the latest (18Z) dynamic model runs. I left the 12Z GFDL in there, even though it initialized too far north.

Thank you wxman57, you do an outstanding job of explaining your reasoning behing your statements. It makes alot of sense the way you explained that. Thanks again. All pro-mets should be as clear and consice.

[wxman57]

Here's a relatively recent color shot of TD 8. Note that the heaviest convection is west of 25W. Nothing over the estimated center (red "X"):