Hurricane Helene - Cat. 3

[HURAKAN]

HELENE 1988 was a hell of a system. The 2006 version may not have the same track but the intensity is quite reachable.

[gatorcane]

I have two words Georges 1998.

[Sanibel]

Right out of the gates as a going system. A sign of prime season.


My guess is it has oceanic recurve written all over it at that pitch.

[curtadams]

Oh wow, another TD. Before I have a chance to catch up, maybe someone can answer...is this likely to join Gordon in some deep sea fishing?

as far as I can gather there is a chance, but the GFS does not show a recurve at this point....that is kindaof scary but some of the European models want to turn it at 50W into a weakness.

No, the GFS recurves it enthusiastically at 55W http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

Odd - no Gordon in that forecast!

[cycloneye]

Oh wow, another TD. Before I have a chance to catch up, maybe someone can answer...is this likely to join Gordon in some deep sea fishing?

Kelly,this part of the 11 AM discussion is the one that has door open for anything to happen in the long term in terms of the track at long range.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES OF OPINION
AMONGST THE DYNAMICAL TRACK PREDICTION MODELS. THE U.K. MET OFFICE
AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS TURN THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD TO THE EAST OF
50W...WHEREAS THE GFS FORECASTS LESS OF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE
NEAR 50W AND TAKES THE SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS BETWEEN THESE POSSIBILITIES AND FAIRLY CLOSE TO
THE TRACK DEPICTED IN THE 0600 UTC GFDL RUN.

However there is the posibility of recurvature but not as sharp as Florence or Gordon.

[Meso]

Someone said GFS isn't showing recurving? Hmmm I might be missing something but :

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_348s.gif
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/gfs/20 ... /slp24.png

Looks like recurvature to me :S

[Sanibel]

There's a large, vicious ULL to its NW over most of the central Atlantic.

You could see a real weakening of this in the central Atlantic.

[wxman57]

why most of the models (except the GFS unfortunately) are already showing some kind of recurve....?

Here's what th GFS forecasts for 5 days out as far as mean flow. Note the digging trof off the east U.S. Coast and lack of any blocking Bermuda High to the north by 50W.

Looks mighty "fishy" to me:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/helene3.gif

[gatorcane]

Oh wow, another TD. Before I have a chance to catch up, maybe someone can answer...is this likely to join Gordon in some deep sea fishing?

Kelly,this part of the 11 AM discussion is the one that has door open for anything to happen in the long term in terms of the track at long range.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES OF OPINION
AMONGST THE DYNAMICAL TRACK PREDICTION MODELS. THE U.K. MET OFFICE
AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS TURN THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD TO THE EAST OF
50W...WHEREAS THE GFS FORECASTS LESS OF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE
NEAR 50W AND TAKES THE SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS BETWEEN THESE POSSIBILITIES AND FAIRLY CLOSE TO
THE TRACK DEPICTED IN THE 0600 UTC GFDL RUN.

However there is the posibility of recurvature but not as sharp as Florence or Gordon.

I would lean towards the weakness scenario. Two reasons:

1) Future Helene looks to be intensifying fairly steadily and will be a deep system traversing the MDR - she'll be able to find a weakness easier

2) From experience, it seems that if models show some kind of recurve at the end of the run, chances are greater a recurve happens than the other way around; that is, I rarely see models show a recurve and then go back the other way and show a westrunner.

[Sanibel]

I was telling people in May we were due for and oceanic track year.

[Derek Ortt]

I think this will go farther west than forecast with the large UL to the NW moving west. There is not going to be a big trough to scoop this up, like what occurred with Debby

Too soon to say whether this impacts the Caribbean or not

[curtadams]

Kelly,this part of the 11 AM discussion is the one that has door open for anything to happen in the long term in terms of the track at long range.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES OF OPINION
AMONGST THE DYNAMICAL TRACK PREDICTION MODELS. THE U.K. MET OFFICE
AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS TURN THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD TO THE EAST OF
50W...WHEREAS THE GFS FORECASTS LESS OF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE
NEAR 50W AND TAKES THE SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS BETWEEN THESE POSSIBILITIES AND FAIRLY CLOSE TO
THE TRACK DEPICTED IN THE 0600 UTC GFDL RUN.

However there is the posibility of recurvature but not as sharp as Florence or Gordon.

Actually there's not currently disagreement on recurvature happening, just on its location. GFS puts it in the neighborhood of Gordon's track, recurving around 55W. UKMET sends it north early, before 40W, really.

[gatorcane]

I think this will go farther west than forecast with the large UL to the NW moving west. There is not going to be a big trough to scoop this up, like what occurred with Debby

Too soon to say whether this impacts the Caribbean or not

ahhhh...now the board will be in a frenzy with the fact that you are indicating a much less chance of recurve....

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Remember people the rule of Thumb; the first several model tracks of a forming storm, are usually never correct. Not saying this will not be a fish, just that it isn't set in stone yet.

[Derek Ortt]

I am not saying less of a chance at recurve... I am just not buying an early recurve

[Sanibel]

To my eye systems that jump off Africa at that latitude generally recurve unless forced down by a strong ridge. There's no strong ridge out there.

[SouthFloridawx]

Remember people the rule of Thumb; the first several model tracks of a forming storm, are usually never correct. Not saying this will not be a fish, just that it isn't set in stone yet.

Yes but, to also note... GFS over the past 2 days has been developing a weakness in the Central Atlantic. Not saying it's set in stone but it's fairly apparent that the westerlies across the Central Atlantic ridge are going to increase dramatically late in the forecast period. IE images below. Of course things could change but, the trough in the Western CONUS is not a cut off low but, a split in the jet meaning it will move west to east. Unless the GFS is drastically off with the dipping jet I would say there is a good likelyhood this one will recurve.

As always things are subject to change but, as it looks now it should recurve before the islands. "SHOULD"



90 Hours


114 Hours


156 Hours, Notice the dramatic increase in westerlies over the Wester ATL and off the E. Coast.

[mike815]

I sure hope your wong. I really do. I hope it at least has a chance.

[kenl01]

The chances of TD 8 becoming a fish is about 60 % based on the active jet stream pattern expected across the Atlantic the next two weeks, plus a system forming so far north for its current longitude usually remains north of the islands and avoids the U.S. East Coast. Plus that's been the trend lately since Florence.

Looks like Gordon and also TD 8 will likely remain at sea...

[AnnularCane]

Was this storm ever an invest? She wasn't when I went to bed last night, then I get up and suddenly there is this TD staring back at me.