HH Gordon Forecasts

[Evil Jeremy]

http://hhrc.4t.com/

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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Tropical Depression 7 Forms

Because of its proximity to land, we might recommend a Tropical Storm watch for parts of the Caribbean islands tomorrow.

Invest 93L has continued to organize and has strengthened into a Tropical Depression. Its current wind speeds are estimated to be at 30 MPH, and a pressure of 1003 MB.

There are many mixed opinions on where TD7 might go, so for the track, we are going to hold off in posting it. We are also going to hold off on the intensity forecast. These will be up sometime after 11:00PM EDT tonight.

Forecaster Silberman

[CrazyC83]

Right now I find it to be a coin toss. I'll write it around 11:30 pm, after my Florence update. (My 5:00 pm update it still valid BTW - I still have Florence at 90kt and on the same track)

[tomboudreau]

No disclaimer?

[WindRunner]

Wow . . . 1003mb? That's awfully low, especially compared to the NHC, at 1012mb.

[Buck]

Yes, thats a very low pressure... and there's not much of a forcast here... you don't say anything about your projections for the storm.

[wxmann_91]

Jeremy,

Post the forecast. As long as the disclaimer's posted, it doesn't matter how busted it is. Do not be shy to post a forecast before NHC does, by comparing the two and then verifying, you will learn a lot more than treating NHC as a model to guide your forecast.

[wxman57]

So where's the forecast track? Why do you need to see what the NHC issues? What difference would their track make?

[Evil Jeremy]

I know my info right now might not be completly accurate, and i like to wait for the first official advisory to be released before posting all of my predictions.

[wxmann_91]

I know my info right now might not be completly accurate, and i like to wait for the first official advisory to be released before posting all of my predictions.

Post it before NHC does. If you do it after, people are going to think you copied from NHC or purposely deviated from NHC in case you were right. It'll be fine if you are completely off. It's called learning, and frankly, maybe you turn out to be right.

Personally, on the few outlooks for both severe wx and tropical wx I do once in a while, I rush to complete and post it before any official sources do, and then compare my outlook with their outlook, and look to see what I did wrong, and why there is a disagreement (or in some cases, why there is unanimous agreement).

[Evil Jeremy]

I know my info right now might not be completly accurate, and i like to wait for the first official advisory to be released before posting all of my predictions.

Post it before NHC does. If you do it after, people are going to think you copied from NHC or purposely deviated from NHC in case you were right. It'll be fine if you are completely off. It's called learning, and frankly, maybe you turn out to be right.

Personally, on the few outlooks for both severe wx and tropical wx I do once in a while, I rush to complete and post it before any official sources do, and then compare my outlook with their outlook, and look to see what I did wrong, and why there is a disagreement (or in some cases, why there is unanimous agreement).

ok

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TD7 is currently heading around WSW at 10 MPH. this is expected to continue for 12 hours, then turning West or WNW for 36 hours, before turning NW in 2-3 days and NNW in 4-5 days. On this track, Seven should be passing close to the Caribbean Islands in 2 days.

We have TD7 as a 30 MPH, 1010 MB TD. slow sterngthing is expected withen 5 days, mainly due to the shear located right in front of TD7.

INITIAL: 25KT
12 Hour: 30KT
24 Hour: 30KT
36 Hour: 35KT
48 Hour: 35KT
72 Hour: 40KT
USE WITH CAUTION:
96 Hour: 45KT
120 Hour: 50KT

Cone Coming Soon.

[WindRunner]

I wouldn't be surprised if the NHC was very close to that, especially intensity-wise. Good forecast Jeremy.

[wxman57]

ok

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TD7 is currently heading around WSW at 10 MPH. this is expected to continue for 12 hours, then turning West or WNW for 36 hours, before turning NW in 2-3 days and NNW in 4-5 days. On this track, Seven should be passing close to the Caribbean Islands in 2 days.

We have TD7 as a 30 MPH, 1010 MB TD. slow sterngthing is expected withen 5 days, mainly due to the shear located right in front of TD7.

INITIAL: 25KT
12 Hour: 30KT
24 Hour: 30KT
36 Hour: 35KT
48 Hour: 35KT
72 Hour: 40KT
USE WITH CAUTION:
96 Hour: 27.0N 63.0W 45KT
120 Hour: 30.0N 63.5W 50KT

Cone Coming Soon.

Looks very good to me.

[CrazyC83]

I have a prediction to the right and with far less confidence. However, that looks pretty good too.

[mtm4319]

NHC forecasts at 96hr and 120hr:

96HR VT 15/0000Z 27.0N 62.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 16/0000Z 29.5N 62.5W 45 KT

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0259.shtml

So both were fairly close to NHC.

[Evil Jeremy]

Our cone is west of the models and the NHC cone. we have done this just in case that the storm misses the weakness in the ridge.

[MWatkins]

I know my info right now might not be completly accurate, and i like to wait for the first official advisory to be released before posting all of my predictions.

Post it before NHC does. If you do it after, people are going to think you copied from NHC or purposely deviated from NHC in case you were right. It'll be fine if you are completely off. It's called learning, and frankly, maybe you turn out to be right.

Personally, on the few outlooks for both severe wx and tropical wx I do once in a while, I rush to complete and post it before any official sources do, and then compare my outlook with their outlook, and look to see what I did wrong, and why there is a disagreement (or in some cases, why there is unanimous agreement).

As an aside...for whatever it is worth...anyone with inside knowledge can get at the forecast tracks from the NHC sometimes two hours (or more) before the actual forecast is released to the public distrubution points. And anyone sitting on the NWS conference calls has the forecast one hour before the public.

Hence...the only pure way to get a potentially uncontaminated track is to release it 2 hours before the NHC release time....and even then it may not be 100% clean.

Otherwise, someone who could get to this information could use the NHC track as a starting point.

I am only pointing out the potential...not making reference to any paticular forecast (or forecaster) specifically.

MW

[hurricanetrack]

Not so much forecaster as forecasters.

[Evil Jeremy]

Tropical Depression 7 slowly strengthening.

Anywhere from Bermuda to the Caribbean islands should be tracking this system.

This morning, we have decided to raise the wind speeds up to 35 MPH now because of increased organization. Our pressure estimate stays the same at1010 MB.

7 is now moving West at 5 MPH, a slow speed, thus we say “my grandma can walk faster than that”. Hopefully that brings in a few laughs into this forecast. Over the net day or so, Seven should turn WNW, and a little more north each day, due to a weakened ridge that Florence left behind. That was scenario 1. Scenario 2 is if the ridge builds back, which would send Seven on a westward path towards, regrettably, Florida. #2, however, is not the most likely path at the time, but it can easily turn out to be Sevens fate. Also know that if it takes #1, it will be a weak cyclone for its lifespan. However, should it take #2, than it can grow into a big hurricane

Our cone puts Seven in between paths on and two, to let people know that more than the areas in the NHC cone need to watch this system..

Current – 35 mph
12 hrs – 40 mph
24 hrs – 40 mph
36 hrs - 45mph
48 hrs - 45mph
60 hrs - 50mph
72 hrs - 50mph
96 hrs - 50mph
120 hrs - 55 mph

[Evil Jeremy]

[gpickett00]

That cone is gigantic, there is almost no possible way for you to be incorrect in any way. Who is the "we" you speak of?