TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics Thread #7

[Zardoz]

Glimpse of eye formation in this loop:

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at2_0.html

[Normandy]

Glimpse of eye formation in this loop:

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at2_0.html

No eye is forming yet, but it might start soon

[Buck]

I don't see an eye forming either.

[Normandy]

might be a good place to look for an eye to form

[trugunz]

might be a good place to look for an eye to form

Im really crossing my fingers for this to develope a eye. GO FLO'

[Jim Hughes]

2007 is going to be a TERROR!!!

Well, it's early days yet, but I'm actually thinking in terms of a substantial el Nino next year (I'll have to hunt for the post - I predicted this already last spring some time). So 2007 may very well be a quiet season for the Atlantic.

Why ? The Nino's and Nina's have obviously shifted their formation times and I have been talking about this for the past two years.

Why would anyone think that there "has" to be an El Nino around during next season just because there will be one this winter? Didn't this year teach people anything?

In early 05 we saw the weak El Nino , that had been around that winter, weaken. Then in early 06 the weak La Nina weakened. And now we have an EL Nino whose timing supposedly defies some peoples logic. This is not the 80's or 90's.

The key to the next ENSO phase will depend upon what happens in November. Space weather wise. I have been forecasting an upcoming spike in activity since earlier this year. This will be a very important factor along with the overall state of the winter polar stratosphere.

[Nimbus]

Florence is intensifying the same as she did last night. Should be a Hurricane when recon gets back. Maybe this trichoidal oscillation will diminish once an eye forms?

[Stormavoider]

Check out the 23:15 frame. It looks like the hurricane symbol.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[JonathanBelles]

Check out the 23:15 frame. It looks like the hurricane symbol.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

the gray part does

[Andrew92]

2007 is going to be a TERROR!!!

Well, it's early days yet, but I'm actually thinking in terms of a substantial el Nino next year (I'll have to hunt for the post - I predicted this already last spring some time). So 2007 may very well be a quiet season for the Atlantic.

Why ? The Nino's and Nina's have obviously shifted their formation times and I have been talking about this for the past two years.

Why would anyone think that there "has" to be an El Nino around during next season just because there will be one this winter? Didn't this year teach people anything?

In early 05 we saw the weak El Nino , that had been around that winter, weaken. Then in early 06 the weak La Nina weakened. And now we have an EL Nino whose timing supposedly defies some peoples logic. This is not the 80's or 90's.

The key to the next ENSO phase will depend upon what happens in November. Space weather wise. I have been forecasting an upcoming spike in activity since earlier this year. This will be a very important factor along with the overall state of the winter polar stratosphere.

Agreed! I have said in a couple posts in the past that I am not sold on an El Nino affecting the 2007 season. I have been under the belief that an El Nino that affects one year (and it is clear to me that El Nino IS affecting the Atlantic in 2006) that the El Nino will most likely wind down the next year. I'm obviously not ready to make a forecast for 2007, but I remain not sold on an El Nino for the summer and fall of '07.

Back to Florence. She's clearly been feeling the influences of some shear, otherwise I think she would have strengthened. Also, her MLC and LLC didn't "just" de-couple; there was a reason for it, and it was shear. Still, I think she will finally reach hurricane status either overnight tonight or tomorrow. However, I too have been thinking that she would be a hurricane by now for a while.

-Andrew92

[Normandy]

Looks as if the "eye" I pointed out was incorrect, I think I see the center a little further south of that point....Florence is for sure now a hurricane, she is well organized and looks much better than last night

[Sanibel]

Big upper outflow expansion. You are not going to keep cane down long in that black-top, expanding outflow scenario.

Perfect upper outflow halo.

[Jim Hughes]

2007 is going to be a TERROR!!!

Well, it's early days yet, but I'm actually thinking in terms of a substantial el Nino next year (I'll have to hunt for the post - I predicted this already last spring some time). So 2007 may very well be a quiet season for the Atlantic.

Why ? The Nino's and Nina's have obviously shifted their formation times and I have been talking about this for the past two years.

Why would anyone think that there "has" to be an El Nino around during next season just because there will be one this winter? Didn't this year teach people anything?

In early 05 we saw the weak El Nino , that had been around that winter, weaken. Then in early 06 the weak La Nina weakened. And now we have an EL Nino whose timing supposedly defies some peoples logic. This is not the 80's or 90's.

The key to the next ENSO phase will depend upon what happens in November. Space weather wise. I have been forecasting an upcoming spike in activity since earlier this year. This will be a very important factor along with the overall state of the winter polar stratosphere.

Agreed! I have said in a couple posts in the past that I am not sold on an El Nino affecting the 2007 season. I have been under the belief that an El Nino that affects one year (and it is clear to me that El Nino IS affecting the Atlantic in 2006) that the El Nino will most likely wind down the next year. I'm obviously not ready to make a forecast for 2007, but I remain not sold on an El Nino for the summer and fall of '07.

Back to Florence. She's clearly been feeling the influences of some shear, otherwise I think she would have strengthened. Also, her MLC and LLC didn't "just" de-couple; there was a reason for it, and it was shear. Still, I think she will finally reach hurricane status either overnight tonight or tomorrow. However, I too have been thinking that she would be a hurricane by now for a while.

-Andrew92

I am not going to close the door on the possibility but the word substantial caught my attention. As for Flo. Her tracking has been forecast well but her intensity level outlooks have been sub par. Just like most from last year.

[WindRunner]

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE (AL062006) ON 20060910 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060910 0000 060910 1200 060911 0000 060911 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 26.1N 64.7W 27.4N 65.6W 29.0N 66.2W 30.7N 65.8W
BAMM 26.1N 64.7W 27.4N 65.8W 28.9N 66.3W 30.4N 66.1W
A98E 26.1N 64.7W 27.9N 65.7W 29.3N 65.9W 30.8N 65.0W
LBAR 26.1N 64.7W 28.1N 65.9W 30.0N 66.7W 31.9N 66.8W
SHIP 55KTS 63KTS 73KTS 81KTS
DSHP 55KTS 63KTS 73KTS 81KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060912 0000 060913 0000 060914 0000 060915 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 32.6N 64.1W 37.7N 56.1W 44.0N 47.2W 48.7N 37.4W
BAMM 32.0N 64.6W 35.8N 57.0W 40.3N 46.8W 46.0N 35.2W
A98E 32.4N 63.1W 37.5N 56.6W 46.6N 43.9W 55.5N 19.9W
LBAR 33.8N 66.0W 37.9N 61.6W 41.0N 50.4W 48.9N 37.7W
SHIP 87KTS 92KTS 90KTS 85KTS
DSHP 87KTS 92KTS 90KTS 85KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 26.1N LONCUR = 64.7W DIRCUR = 325DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 24.4N LONM12 = 63.2W DIRM12 = 310DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 23.3N LONM24 = 61.1W
WNDCUR = 55KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 60KT
CENPRS = 992MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 350NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 225NM RD34SE = 200NM RD34SW = 90NM RD34NW = 225NM

[SouthFloridawx]

Has anyone else noticed this feature:


http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _ls_0.html

What kind of effect will it have on Florence?

Looking at the 200mb vorticity it appears that it is an upper level low.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor1.html

[Normandy]

Upon second look at Florence it has been decieving this evening, the center seems to be on the NNE side of the deep covection (NOT exposed though).

Not as organized as I thought and probably still a strong TS or weak cane at best

[SouthFloridawx]

I would also like to add that this feature I mentioned above was not described in the 805 TWD..

[JonathanBelles]

is it me or is florence elongated north to south?

[huricanwatcher]

shes still forcing west...... UGH

[JonathanBelles]

shes still forcing west...... UGH

i didnt realize it but its past 65w!