TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics Thread #7

#121 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 5:00 pm

cpdaman wrote:flo may be done with her westward progress

I agree... it also appears she's ready to shoot that gap with a vengence.

marcane_1973 · #122 Postby **marcane_1973** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 5:02 pm

Hmmmm.... Seems science did not prevail. Florence will be lucky to get to a CAT 1 Hurricane. This is why i do not trust or believe in a model that thinks it can predict the future. Winds which we cant even see shift in the Atmosphere every day and patterns change in a blink of an eye which models WILL NEVER be able to predict. I am not trying to bash science by any means. It has always been the most interesting subject in my life but my point is there is only so much we can learn and know about the physics of science and no matter how much technology we have there WILL ALWAYS be the unknown and the unexplainable. That is the way it was meant to be. :wink:

trugunz · #123 Postby **trugunz** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 5:05 pm

Seems like models underestimated hurricanes last year and this year they overestimated

cpdaman · #124 Postby **cpdaman** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 5:09 pm

well science all along has maintained that intensity forecasts are very challenging and i wouldn't say florence is done yet. as she moves more northward the relative sheer will decrease and she will probably strengthen over the next 12-18 hours

Scorpion · #125 Postby **Scorpion** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 5:13 pm

Since this is most likely a moderate El Nino forming, wouldn't it begin to taper off by the time the 2007 hurricane season starts?

Normandy · #126 Postby **Normandy** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 5:34 pm

In other news....

Florence is likely a hurricane now or very close

#127 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 5:39 pm

And now back to Florence!!!

theworld · #128 Postby **theworld** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 5:39 pm

Normandy wrote:In other news....

Florence is likely a hurricane now or very close

There is quite a bit of 'feathering' on the W and SW. If I remember, back during Ernesto, the same features mean there is some level of intensification going on ??

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc0 ... atest.html

Zardoz · #129 Postby **Zardoz** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 5:40 pm

Normandy wrote:In other news....

Florence is likely a hurricane now or very close

If not, it's doing a damned good job of impersonating one:

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at2_0.html

#130 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 5:41 pm

As the off-topic discussion continues, did anyone notice that Florence has turned to the NW-NNW in the past few hours? Note that the cirrus "arrow" north of Florence is now pointing just east of Bermuda. The center could yet turn sharply enough to pass east of the island.

Also note that Florence appears to have begun another strengthening phase - now that the recon plane is gone. ;-)

#131 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 5:43 pm

RECON, WE NEED YOU!!!

When will they be back??

Normandy · #132 Postby **Normandy** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 5:44 pm

wxman57 wrote:As the off-topic discussion continues, did anyone notice that Florence has turned to the NW-NNW in the past few hours? Note that the cirrus "arrow" north of Florence is now pointing just east of Bermuda. The center could yet turn sharply enough to pass east of the island.

Also note that Florence appears to have begun another strengthening phase - now that the recon plane is gone.

Per the NHC track its already suppose to be going NNW... so its right on track.

Also, its already due south of Bermuda

#133 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 5:44 pm

wxman57 wrote:As the off-topic discussion continues, did anyone notice that Florence has turned to the NW-NNW in the past few hours? Note that the cirrus "arrow" north of Florence is now pointing just east of Bermuda. The center could yet turn sharply enough to pass east of the island.

Also note that Florence appears to have begun another strengthening phase - now that the recon plane is gone.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-rb.html

You can see it making that turn now... It's definitely moving more NNW and it's probably finally around the SW corner of that ridge.

artist · #134 Postby **artist** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 5:50 pm

wxman57 wrote:As the off-topic discussion continues, did anyone notice that Florence has turned to the NW-NNW in the past few hours? Note that the cirrus "arrow" north of Florence is now pointing just east of Bermuda. The center could yet turn sharply enough to pass east of the island.

Also note that Florence appears to have begun another strengthening phase - now that the recon plane is gone.

wxman57 -0 could you do a graphic for us so we can see what you do, us total amatuers? Thanks!

#135 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 5:54 pm

artist wrote:
wxman57 -0 could you do a graphic for us so we can see what you do, us total amatuers? Thanks!

I'm not sure what you're asking for. The wife & I are about to head out on our mountain bikes for dinner at an outdoor Cafe near downtown Houston. Be back in 3 hours.

artist · #136 Postby **artist** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 5:56 pm

ooops - should have read what you are seeing! Sorry about that! Have fun!

UpTheCreek · #137 Postby **UpTheCreek** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 5:58 pm

It's very fascinating, maybe it's me but it looks like such an abrupt change in direction.

WindRunner · #138 Postby **WindRunner** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 6:08 pm

HURAKAN wrote:RECON, WE NEED YOU!!!

When will they be back??

Plane takes off at 10pm EDT tonight, on-target at around 2am.

#139 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 6:11 pm

Could Florence be upgraded to hurricane before the RECON mission? It looks better now than when it was investigated.

WindRunner · #140 Postby **WindRunner** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 6:14 pm

Unless Dvorak's come back with nothing under 4.5 (which I guess is possible), I highly doubt it.

SSD numbers will be run within the hour, CIMSS ADT comes out at raw-4.5 and actual 4.4 as of 45 minutes ago.

TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics Thread #7

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