Hurricane Florence - Cat. 1

[Thunder44]

The mission will probably be ending soon. I'll take over for a little while.

[Coredesat]

Yeah, no obs since 0659z.

[Coredesat]

First I say that, then we get obs.

194
SXXX50 KNHC 090723
AF308 0206A FLORENCE HDOB 33 KNHC
0709. 2231N 06109W 04108 0175 191 025 058 004 026 04339 0000000000
0710 2230N 06111W 04337 0167 184 025 044 013 025 04589 0000000000
0710. 2229N 06113W 04550 0184 183 021 030 019 021 04820 0000000000
0711 2228N 06115W 04761 0211 198 016 020 031 017 05058 0000000000
0711. 2227N 06117W 04975 0233 217 015 004 041 016 05294 0000000000
0712 2226N 06119W 05170 0248 216 015 011 057 015 05505 0000000000
0712. 2225N 06121W 05343 0264 216 013 025 065 013 05695 0000000000
0713 2224N 06123W 05504 0276 229 009 037 069 010 05868 0000000000
0713. 2223N 06125W 05668 0290 233 009 051 077 009 06047 0000000000
0714 2222N 06127W 05849 0304 236 013 061 087 015 06244 0000000000
0714. 2221N 06129W 06008 0318 233 016 071 109 016 06417 0000000000
0715 2220N 06132W 06141 0328 229 015 081 119 015 06560 0000000000
0715. 2218N 06134W 06280 0332 235 015 091 127 015 06703 0000000000
0716 2217N 06136W 06395 0335 233 013 099 125 014 06828 0000000000
0716. 2216N 06138W 06515 0344 237 013 109 139 015 06958 0000000000
0717 2215N 06140W 06643 0355 256 015 115 145 016 07098 0000000000
0717. 2214N 06142W 06753 0364 270 016 121 143 017 07217 0000000000
0718 2213N 06144W 06843 0371 285 016 129 151 017 07315 0000000000
0718. 2212N 06147W 06934 0377 290 015 139 159 016 07412 0000000000
0719 2210N 06149W 07025 0385 289 014 143 173 015 07512 0000000000

Ascending, probably returning to base.

[Coredesat]

218
URNT11 KNHC 090723
97779 07224 70220 62100 73100 28021 65/// /5759
RMK AF308 0206A FLORENCE OB 17
LAST REPORT

Mission over.

[Meso]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 090831
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
500 AM AST SAT SEP 09 2006

...FLORENCE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR BERMUDA LATER THIS MORNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.8 WEST OR ABOUT 580
MILES...935 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR.
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND FLORENCE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.

FLORENCE IS A LARGE SYSTEM AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 345 MILES...555 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER WAS
993 MB...29.32 INCHES.

LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...INCLUDING STRONG
RIP CURRENTS...ARE ALREADY AFFECTING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND
BERMUDA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE TURKS AND
CAICOS...THE BAHAMAS...AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICES FOR DETAILS ON COASTAL CONDITIONS.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...24.1 N...62.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN





000
WTNT41 KNHC 090911
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
500 AM EDT SAT SEP 09 2006

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REACHED THE CENTER OF
FLORENCE ABOUT 04Z...WITH A SECOND FIX ABOUT 0630Z. THE AIRCRAFT
MEASURED MINIMUM PRESSURES OF 998 AND 993 MB ON THE TWO FIXES...
WITH MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 61 KT ABOUT 50 N MI
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT
FROM SAB AND AFWA...AND 55 KT FROM TAFB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE
AIRCRAFT AND RECENT AMSR-E DATA SHOW THAT WHILE THE CONVECTION IS
STRONG...IT IS CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN QUADRANT.

THE AIRCRAFT FOUND THE CENTER SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TRACK...AND A REVIEW OF EARLIER SATELLITE DATA SUGGESTS THAT
FLORENCE HAS BEEN MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE PAST 12 HR OR
SO. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/12. OTHER THAN THIS...THERE IS NO
CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
FLORENCE IS APPROACHING THE WESTERN END OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE...
WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SOUTHWEST OF THE STORM NEAR 21N71W AND A
MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD TURN FLORENCE NORTHWARD
DURING THE NEXT 12-36 HR...WITH THE STORM RECURVING NORTHEASTWARD
IN DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THEREAFTER. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE
AGREES ON THE RECURVATURE...WITH LBAR CALLING FOR THE FARTHEST WEST
RECURVATURE AT 68W. THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE AFTER RECURVATURE. THE NOGAPS...GFDN...GFDL...AND ECMWF
BRING THE CENTER OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND...WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS IT SOUTHEAST OF THE ISLAND. THE
NEW FORECAST TRACK IS MOVED WESTWARD FOR THE FIRST 48 HR DUE TO THE
CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION...AND NOW CALLS FOR FLORENCE TO PASS
VERY NEAR BERMUDA IN 48-72 HR. THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. OVERALL...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK
IS JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE THAT THE
VERTICAL SHEAR HAS DECREASED TO ABOUT 10 KT. FLORENCE HAS ABOUT A
48-60 HR WINDOW IN WHICH TO INTENSIFY BEFORE ENCOUNTERING STRONG
SHEAR IN THE WESTERLIES. THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE BOTH
FORECAST A PEAK INTENSITY OF 100-105 KT IN ABOUT 60 HR...WHILE THE
GFDL CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 87 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...CALLING FOR A PEAK INTENSITY
OF 90 KT IN ABOUT 48 HR. AFTER FLORENCE ENTERS THE WESTERLIES...
INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND COLD AIR INTRUSION SHOULD CAUSE
WEAKENING AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY 120 HR. HOWEVER...
FLORENCE SHOULD REMAIN A LARGE AND VIGOROUS CYCLONE THROUGH THE
TRANSITION PROCESS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/0900Z 24.1N 62.8W 55 KT
12HR VT 09/1800Z 25.1N 64.3W 65 KT
24HR VT 10/0600Z 26.7N 65.4W 75 KT
36HR VT 10/1800Z 28.6N 65.9W 85 KT
48HR VT 11/0600Z 30.6N 65.8W 90 KT
72HR VT 12/0600Z 36.0N 63.0W 85 KT
96HR VT 13/0600Z 43.0N 56.0W 70 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 14/0600Z 49.0N 46.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

[cycloneye]

380
WTNT31 KNHC 091150
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 23A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
800 AM AST SAT SEP 09 2006

...FLORENCE GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR BERMUDA LATER THIS MORNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.3 WEST OR ABOUT 550
MILES...885 KM...SOUTH OF BERMUDA.

FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR.
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND FLORENCE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL PROVIDE A BETTER
ESTIMATE OF THE INTENSITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

FLORENCE IS A LARGE SYSTEM AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 345 MILES...555 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.

LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...INCLUDING STRONG
RIP CURRENTS...ARE ALREADY AFFECTING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND
BERMUDA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE TURKS AND
CAICOS...THE BAHAMAS...AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICES FOR DETAILS ON COASTAL CONDITIONS.

REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...24.4 N...63.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/STEWART

[WindRunner]

Code: Select all

NOUS42 KNHC 081530
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT FRI 08 SEP 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
         VALID 09/1100Z TO 10/1100Z SEP 2006
         TSPOD NUMBER.....06-101

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE
       FLIGHT ONE                   FLIGHT TWO
       A. 09/1800Z                  A. 10/0600Z
       B. AFXXX 0206A FLORENCE      B. AFXXX 0306A FLORENCE
       C. 09/1515Z                  C. 10/0200Z
       D. 26.2N 63.8W               D. 27.7N 64.7W
       E. 09/1700Z TO 09/2100Z      E. 10/0430Z TO 10/0830Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT          F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
       G. TEAL 70                   G. TEAL 71

    2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES
       AT 10/1800Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
                         JWP


Next mission taking off in a little under 3 hours, with another one scheduled to take off around 10pm tonight. More frequent flights should begin starting tonight, though those flights will be scheduled when today's POD is released later this morning.

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
1500 UTC SAT SEP 09 2006

AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BERMUDA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 63.7W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT.......250NE 200SE 90SW 250NW.
12 FT SEAS..325NE 225SE 100SW 325NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 63.7W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 63.3W

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 25.9N 64.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT...250NE 200SE 100SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 27.7N 65.7W...NEAR BERMUDA
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 0SW 35NW.
50 KT...100NE 70SE 35SW 80NW.
34 KT...250NE 225SE 100SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 29.7N 65.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...275NE 250SE 100SW 225NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 31.9N 65.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...300NE 275SE 100SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 37.6N 61.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT...125NE 125SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...350NE 350SE 150SW 300NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 44.0N 54.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 49.0N 44.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.7N 63.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 09 2006

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/11...BASED MAINLY ON CONTINUITY
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND 09/1007Z SSMI AND 09/1015Z
QUIKSCAT OVERPASSES. THE BASIC FORECAST TRACK AND REASONING REMAINS
UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS ADVISORIES. FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY ROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH A BREAK OR WEAKNESS IN
THE RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST BY ALL THE MODELS TO DEVELOP IN 36-48
HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK
AND THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.

SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF 65 KT...77 KT...AND 90 KT FROM SAB...TAFB...
AND AFWA...RESPECTIVELY...SUGGEST THAT FLORENCE COULD BE A
HURRICANE. HOWEVER...AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS TILTED 12-18 NMI NORTHWEST OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER AND THAT THERE WAS NO EYE FEATURE PRESENT.
THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS ONLY NUDGED UPWARD SLIGHTLY
AND AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AROUND 18Z WILL DETERMINE
WHETHER OR NOT FLORENCE IS A HURRICANE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST ALSO
REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A BLEND OF THE
GFDL AND SHIPS INTENSITY MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/1500Z 24.7N 63.7W 60 KT
12HR VT 10/0000Z 25.9N 64.8W 70 KT
24HR VT 10/1200Z 27.7N 65.7W 75 KT
36HR VT 11/0000Z 29.7N 65.9W 85 KT
48HR VT 11/1200Z 31.9N 65.3W 90 KT...NEAR BERMUDA
72HR VT 12/1200Z 37.6N 61.6W 85 KT
96HR VT 13/1200Z 44.0N 54.0W 70 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 14/1200Z 49.0N 44.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
1100 AM AST SAT SEP 09 2006

...FLORENCE CONTINUING TO SHOW SIGNS OF GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...

AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BERMUDA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED
LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.7 WEST OR ABOUT 530
MILES...850 KM...SOUTH OF BERMUDA.

FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND
A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND FLORENCE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL PROVIDE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF
THE INTENSITY OF FLORENCE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

FLORENCE IS A LARGE SYSTEM AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 345 MILES...555 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.

STORM SURGE VALUES OF 6 TO 8 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST
OF BERMUDA AS FLORENCE PASSES NEAR THE ISLAND.

IN ADDITION...LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...
INCLUDING STRONG RIP CURRENTS...ARE ALREADY AFFECTING BERMUDA...AS
WELL AS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO
RICO...HISPANIOLA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE TURKS
AND CAICOS...THE BAHAMAS...AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICES FOR DETAILS ON COASTAL CONDITIONS.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...24.7 N...63.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Solaris]

my bet for next fix is:
976 mb / 89 knots

[Scorpion]

976? That would be some impressive deepening.

[cycloneye]

894
SXXX50 KNHC 091444
AF301 0106A FLORENCE HDOB 01 KNHC
1431 1742N 06448W 00006 5015 360 000 362 204 000 00000 0000000000
1431. 1742N 06448W 00006 5015 360 000 364 204 000 00000 0000000000
1432 1742N 06448W 00006 5015 360 000 368 206 000 00000 0000000000
1432. 1742N 06448W 00006 5015 360 000 366 210 000 00000 0000000000
1433 1742N 06448W 00006 5015 360 000 358 212 000 00000 0000000000
1433. 1742N 06448W 00006 5015 360 000 358 212 000 00000 0000000000
1434 1742N 06448W 00006 5015 360 000 350 212 000 00000 0000000000
1434. 1742N 06448W 00006 5015 360 000 336 212 000 00000 0000000000
1435 1742N 06448W 00006 5015 360 000 330 212 000 00000 0000000000
1435. 1742N 06448W 00006 5015 360 000 332 214 000 00000 0000000000
1436 1742N 06448W 00007 5016 360 000 340 214 000 00000 0000000000
1436. 1742N 06448W 00007 5016 360 000 344 210 000 00000 0000000000
1437 1742N 06448W 00006 5015 360 000 332 212 000 00000 0000000000
1437. 1742N 06448W 00007 5016 360 000 322 212 000 00000 0000000000
1438 1742N 06448W 00006 5016 360 000 328 212 000 00000 0000000000
1438. 1742N 06448W 00007 5016 360 000 332 206 000 00000 0000000000
1439 1742N 06448W 00007 5016 360 000 330 206 000 00000 0000000000
1439. 1742N 06448W 00007 5016 360 000 332 208 000 00000 0000000000
1440 1742N 06448W 00007 5016 360 000 334 208 000 00000 0000000000
1440. 1742N 06448W 00006 5016 360 000 334 208 000 00000 0000000000

Plane at runway ready to takeoff.

[WmE]

536
SXXX50 KNHC 091454
AF301 0106A FLORENCE HDOB 02 KNHC
1441 1742N 06448W 00006 5015 360 000 330 212 000 00000 0000000000
1441. 1742N 06448W 00006 5015 360 000 324 208 000 00000 0000000000
1442 1742N 06448W 00009 5018 360 000 332 210 000 00000 0000000000
1442. 1742N 06448W 00006 5015 360 000 334 208 000 00000 0000000000
1443 1742N 06448W 00006 5015 360 000 338 206 000 00000 0000000000
1443. 1742N 06447W 00006 5015 360 000 336 206 000 00000 0000000000
1444 1742N 06447W 00007 5016 360 000 328 204 000 00000 0000000000
1444. 1742N 06447W 00007 5017 360 000 320 204 000 00000 0000000000
1445 1742N 06447W 00007 5016 360 000 318 202 000 00000 0000000000
1445. 1742N 06447W 00008 5017 360 000 320 200 000 00000 0000000000
1446 1742N 06447W 00007 5016 360 000 330 198 000 00000 0000000000
1446. 1742N 06447W 00007 5017 360 000 338 198 000 00000 0000000000
1447 1742N 06447W 00007 5017 360 000 344 198 000 00000 0000000000
1447. 1742N 06447W 00007 5017 360 000 350 198 000 00000 0000000000
1448 1742N 06447W 00007 5017 360 000 354 196 000 00000 0000000000
1448. 1742N 06447W 00008 5017 360 000 356 206 000 00000 0000000000
1449 1742N 06447W 00008 5017 360 000 332 206 000 00000 0000000000
1449. 1742N 06447W 00007 5017 360 000 328 204 000 00000 0000000000
1450 1742N 06447W 00007 5016 360 000 336 202 000 00000 0000000000
1450. 1742N 06447W 00007 5016 360 000 330 198 000 00000 0000000000

[cycloneye]

A reminder that if you have a question or comments about this mission and the data you can post them at the recon discussion thread.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 8&start=60

[WmE]

473
SXXX50 KNHC 091504
AF301 0106A FLORENCE HDOB 03 KNHC
1451 1742N 06447W 00008 5017 360 000 320 198 000 00000 0000000000
1451. 1742N 06447W 00009 5019 284 000 308 202 001 00000 0000000000
1452 1742N 06448W 00037 5025 290 006 284 212 010 00022 0000000000
1452. 1742N 06449W 00196 5015 317 007 262 208 007 00191 0000000000
1453 1742N 06451W 00450 5002 313 008 238 186 009 00463 0000000000
1453. 1742N 06452W 00813 0018 296 006 216 138 007 00852 0000000000
1454 1742N 06454W 01168 0065 311 006 200 082 007 01264 0000000000
1454. 1743N 06456W 01456 0080 319 006 182 070 007 01572 0000000000
1455 1744N 06456W 01526 0084 298 007 176 080 007 01646 0000000000
1455. 1746N 06456W 01559 0084 291 008 176 084 009 01677 0000000000
1456 1747N 06456W 01835 0100 279 008 160 074 010 01972 0000000000
1456. 1749N 06456W 02145 0117 275 010 146 032 010 02301 0000000000
1457 1751N 06456W 02447 0131 265 011 128 010 012 02623 0000000000
1457. 1752N 06457W 02743 0149 256 013 108 004 013 02938 0000000000
1458 1754N 06457W 03026 0168 254 014 090 023 014 03240 0000000000
1458. 1756N 06457W 03287 0188 255 015 072 005 016 03522 0000000000
1459 1757N 06458W 03544 0204 252 015 054 013 016 03795 0000000000
1459. 1759N 06458W 03813 0222 263 014 040 057 014 04083 0000000000
1500 1801N 06459W 04047 0235 257 014 028 077 015 04332 0000000000
1500. 1802N 06459W 04260 0220 251 013 012 093 013 04558 0000000000


Takeoff!!

[cycloneye]

The plane is in the air now.Will they find a hurricane?

[Thunder44]

[cycloneye]

http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tro ... OUS42.KNHC

The plan of the day for tommorow and monday.

[Thunder44]