Hurricane Florence - Cat. 1

[CrazyC83]

It's clear now they were overestimating it the past couple days based on the discussion.

[cycloneye]

014
WTNT41 KNHC 082030
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
500 PM EDT FRI SEP 08 2006

THE CLOUD PATTERN BECAME A LITTLE MORE SYMMETRIC A COUPLE OF HOURS
AGO BUT IT HAS DETERIORATED A LITTLE BIT SINCE. HOWEVER...THE
OVERALL TREND SINCE YESTERDAY HAS BEEN TOWARD BETTER ORGANIZATION.
THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE DVORAK T-NUMBERS THAT HAVE INCREASED AND
NOW SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS. IT APPEARS THAT
FLORENCE WILL BEGIN STRENGTHENING GRADUALLY UNDER LOW SHEAR...WARM
SSTS AND THE POTENTIALLY POSITIVE EFFECTS OF A TROUGH INTERACTION.
FLORENCE IS FORECAST TO PASS NEAR BERMUDA AS A HURRICANE. THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH ALL THE AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 KNOTS
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE CYCLONE SHOULD
REACH THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE IN 24 TO 36 HOURS AND
GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
THEREAFTER...IT SHOULD BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES AND TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED. THIS IS THE SOLUTION OF MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS WHICH ARE
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT TAKING FLORENCE NEAR BERMUDA AND THEN
TURNING IT TO THE NORTHEAST.

FLORENCE HAS AN UNUSUALLY LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THESE WINDS COULD REACH BERMUDA IN ABOUT
36 HOURS. THIS HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE WATCH FOR
BERMUDA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/2100Z 23.9N 60.1W 45 KT
12HR VT 09/0600Z 24.9N 61.8W 55 KT
24HR VT 09/1800Z 26.5N 63.7W 65 KT
36HR VT 10/0600Z 28.5N 65.0W 75 KT
48HR VT 10/1800Z 30.5N 65.0W 85 KT
72HR VT 11/1800Z 35.0N 63.0W 85 KT
96HR VT 12/1800Z 42.0N 57.0W 75 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 13/1800Z 47.1N 48.0W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

092
WTNT31 KNHC 082355
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
800 PM AST FRI SEP 08 2006

...FLORENCE CONTINUING NORTHWESTWARD AS A LARGE TROPICAL STORM...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.9 WEST OR ABOUT 615
MILES...990 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FLORENCE IS LARGE SYSTEM AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 375 MILES...600 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...24.1 N...60.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/LANDSEA

[cycloneye]

Let's see how much up NHC bumps the intensity at 11 PM.I say thay will go up to 60 mph.

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
1100 PM AST FRI SEP 08 2006

...FLORENCE INTENSIFYING...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.4 WEST OR ABOUT 575
MILES...930 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND FLORENCE COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE ON SATURDAY. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE FLORENCE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

FLORENCE IS A LARGE SYSTEM AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 345 MILES...555 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...INCLUDING STRONG
RIP CURRENTS...ARE ALREADY AFFECTING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND
BERMUDA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE TURKS AND
CAICOS...THE BAHAMAS...AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICES FOR DETAILS ON COASTAL CONDITIONS.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...24.5 N...61.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/LANDSEA

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
0300 UTC SAT SEP 09 2006

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 61.4W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT.......300NE 200SE 60SW 250NW.
12 FT SEAS..325NE 250SE 100SW 325NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 61.4W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 60.9W

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 25.5N 63.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT...300NE 200SE 80SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 27.0N 64.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT...100NE 60SE 30SW 80NW.
34 KT...300NE 250SE 100SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 28.7N 65.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...300NE 275SE 100SW 225NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 30.7N 65.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...300NE 300SE 100SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 35.5N 63.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT...125NE 125SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...350NE 350SE 150SW 300NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 42.5N 57.5W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 48.0N 48.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.5N 61.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/LANDSEA

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 08 2006

DURING THE EVENING...INNER-CORE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH FLORENCE
HAS CONSOLIDATED AND A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST APPEARS TO BE FORMING.
CORRESPONDINGLY...DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB
AT 0000Z SUGGEST 55 KT...WHILE 2119Z AMSU ANALYSES FROM CIRA AND
CIMMS SUGGESTED A WEAKER SYSTEM AT THAT TIME. GIVEN THE INCREASED
ORGANIZATION SEEN IN THE LAST FEW HOURS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
SET AT 55 KT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE FLORENCE IN A FEW HOURS AND PROVIDE A MORE
ACCURATE ASSESSMENT OF BOTH ITS INTENSITY AND POSITION.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/13...THOUGH THIS IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN
GIVEN THE DIFFICULTY IN DETERMINING THE EXACT CENTER WITH INFRARED
IMAGERY. FLORENCE IS ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
RIDGE AND IT SHOULD REACH ITS WESTERNMOST POINT IN ABOUT 36 TO 48
HOURS AS IT RECURVES INTO THE WESTERLIES. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 72 HOURS AND NONE TAKE THE SYSTEM WEST OF
66W...SO IT APPEARS THAT THERE IS LITTLE DIRECT THREAT TO THE UNITED
STATES OUTSIDE OF LARGE SWELLS AND SURF. BEYOND 72 HOURS...THERE
IS A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE WITH NOGAPS...GFDL
AND ECMWF TO THE LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS...THE GFS SLOWER AND TO THE
RIGHT...AND THE UKMET SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER. THE UKMET SOLUTION MAY
BE ERRONEOUS GIVEN THAT THE OTHER MODELS SUGGEST A SECONDARY
BAROCLINIC DEVELOPMENT IN THE REGION THAT THE UKMET CARRIES
FLORENCE. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS
PREDICTION AND CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS MINUS THE UKMET.

GIVEN THE INNER-CORE DEVELOPMENT...WARM WATERS...LOW SHEAR AND
ABUNDANT MOISTURE...FLORENCE SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...COOLER WATERS...HIGHER SHEAR AND
A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD START THE WEAKENING PROCESS.
HOWEVER...MOST GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT FLORENCE MAY BECOME A
LARGE EXTRATROPICAL STORM AT DAYS FOUR AND FIVE. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPER-ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND
SOMEWHAT ABOVE GFDL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/0300Z 24.5N 61.4W 55 KT
12HR VT 09/1200Z 25.5N 63.0W 65 KT
24HR VT 10/0000Z 27.0N 64.5W 75 KT
36HR VT 10/1200Z 28.7N 65.3W 85 KT
48HR VT 11/0000Z 30.7N 65.4W 90 KT
72HR VT 12/0000Z 35.5N 63.0W 85 KT
96HR VT 13/0000Z 42.5N 57.5W 75 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 14/0000Z 48.0N 48.0W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/LANDSEA

[brunota2003]

mission is out there per public advisory...I'm going to bed...cant take care of the data...

[dixiebreeze]

Hmmm.....

[cycloneye]

I also going to bed soon,so the question is who will post the data about this very important first mission towards Florence?

[SouthFloridawx]

643
SXXX50 KNHC 090253
AF308 0206A FLORENCE HDOB 06 KNHC
0239. 1921N 06424W 05791 0330 227 009 061 261 009 06213 0000000000
0240 1924N 06423W 05791 0330 223 008 061 329 009 06212 0000000000
0240. 1927N 06422W 05792 0330 217 008 061 395 008 06213 0000000000
0241 1929N 06422W 05791 0331 214 008 061 411 008 06212 0000000000
0241. 1932N 06421W 05791 0330 210 009 061 423 009 06212 0000000000
0242 1935N 06420W 05791 0331 209 009 061 423 009 06213 0000000000
0242. 1938N 06420W 05792 0331 204 009 063 355 009 06214 0000000000
0243 1941N 06419W 05790 0331 194 009 061 379 009 06212 0000000000
0243. 1943N 06418W 05793 0332 190 008 061 331 009 06217 0000000000
0244 1946N 06418W 05791 0332 196 007 061 307 008 06215 0000000000
0244. 1949N 06417W 05790 0333 200 008 061 351 009 06213 0000000000
0245 1952N 06416W 05791 0333 206 008 061 247 008 06215 0000000000
0245. 1955N 06416W 05793 0332 213 007 063 355 007 06215 0000000000
0246 1958N 06415W 05788 0331 218 007 065 311 008 06211 0000000000
0246. 2000N 06414W 05791 0332 215 008 065 327 008 06214 0000000000
0247 2003N 06414W 05791 0329 196 009 065 221 009 06211 0000000000
0247. 2006N 06413W 05795 0330 201 007 069 199 008 06215 0000000000
0248 2008N 06412W 05791 0331 202 007 067 185 007 06212 0000000000
0248. 2011N 06412W 05791 0330 207 008 069 191 008 06211 0000000000
0249 2014N 06411W 05791 0329 216 009 065 207 010 06211 0000000000

657
URNT11 KNHC 090253
97779 02394 70194 64400 57900 99005 56/// /4589
RMK AF308 0206A FLORENCE OB 01

[lester]

@11AM:
NOTE: LAST TWO VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES PRIOR TO SENDING THIS
ADVISORY SUGGESTS THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED AND THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE TUCKED INTO THE CONVECTION.
IF THIS TREND TOWARD ORGANIZATION CONTINUES...SCIENCE WILL HAVE
PREVAILED.
Hmmm....

[Brent]

Hmmm.....

What's that for?

[SouthFloridawx]

AF308 0206A FLORENCE HDOB 08 KNHC
0259. 2112N 06358W 05794 0328 231 004 055 187 005 06212 0000000000
0300 2115N 06357W 05790 0326 215 006 057 211 007 06206 0000000000
0300. 2117N 06356W 05791 0326 234 006 055 199 006 06207 0000000000
0301 2120N 06356W 05791 0326 243 005 051 199 006 06207 0000000000
0301. 2123N 06355W 05792 0325 217 006 057 205 007 06207 0000000000
0302 2126N 06355W 05791 0325 211 006 061 175 007 06206 0000000000
0302. 2129N 06354W 05792 0326 217 006 063 167 006 06208 0000000000
0303 2131N 06354W 05797 0327 263 005 069 143 005 06214 0000000000
0303. 2134N 06353W 05790 0327 253 005 065 141 005 06208 0000000000
0304 2137N 06352W 05791 0327 248 004 065 147 004 06207 0000000000
0304. 2140N 06352W 05788 0325 218 004 061 157 004 06204 0000000000
0305 2142N 06351W 05791 0325 203 005 061 151 005 06206 0000000000
0305. 2145N 06351W 05792 0324 209 005 061 157 005 06206 0000000000
0306 2148N 06350W 05790 0325 211 005 059 159 006 06206 0000000000
0306. 2151N 06349W 05791 0324 210 006 055 181 007 06205 0000000000
0307 2154N 06349W 05790 0323 211 007 053 189 008 06203 0000000000
0307. 2156N 06348W 05792 0323 209 009 049 235 009 06205 0000000000
0308 2159N 06348W 05794 0322 239 008 059 159 008 06206 0000000000
0308. 2202N 06347W 05793 0321 237 006 061 143 007 06204 0000000000
0309 2205N 06347W 05793 0322 244 006 059 149 006 06205 0000000000

[SouthFloridawx]

[Brent]

All questions and comments go here.

So, will they find a hurricane?

[cycloneye]

Ok,from now on all questions or comments will be posted at the recon discussion thread.

[SouthFloridawx]

I think they might... if not very close.

[SouthFloridawx]

I am going to post the data and the graphic at the same time.