Tropical Storm Gordon,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[cycloneye]

This was ex 91L that merged with Florence but not is on it's own and it's a new invest.

[AnnularCane]

Wow. That was fast.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks to have a nice LLC on the northern side...In with that trough/weakness picking up Florenece. Which should be deep enough to do the same with this...Even if this did not pick up this you still have a big weakness with Florence.

[CrazyC83]

TD7 on its way? It does have all the problems Florence faced though...

[Rainband]

This was shown in a couple of the models. It moves N then NE. I think it was the nogaps and the gfs.

[JonathanBelles]

florence had a baby!!!!!!

[SouthFloridawx]

I took this out of the old 91L thread and reposted it here. I can edit it out if necessary.

Rainbow sat image can be seen here:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-rb.html


Giving this area another look tonight I have decided to agree with Hyperstorm. Currently the area is under sheared conditions due to Florence. However this system will not be able to make it east far enough to go through the same weakness that Florence is going through.
Current shear tendencies can be seen here.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

Florence is currently appears to be slowing down a bit due to the fact that she is moving towards the SW periphery of the Ridge.

But, as Florence speeds up this area will have to be watched. I don't think the models are picking up on this right now because it is so weak. As Florence moves farther and farther north away from it... shear should relax enough (if it's still there) to allow it to be able to fire up up with covection.

Part of the reason I am worried about this system a little is because as Florence pulls out with the Trough the weakness in the Ridge will close and this system (barring it's there) will be left behind.

Below you can see the 500mb forecast from GFS @ 18Z. It depicts Flo moving our and the ridge closign the gap to the south. Also you can see from the 250 wind/hghts forecast below, the westerlies will be far enough north not to affect this system.



GFS is also forecasting a rather large upper level low to develop but, this area should be far enough to the east to not be significantly impacted from it's effects.


ULL also seen here.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=120hr

So we'll see... I think this may end up being a threat to the US or the GOM as any approaching troughs may draw the system up farther north but, by that time it will be close enough to probably affect the US ....

If, if if... it holds together.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. LAST
NIGHT THIS WAVE LOOKED LIKE IT WAS BECOMING ABSORBED BY THE
LARGE CIRCULATION OF FLORENCE. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY NOW
SUGGEST THAT IT IS A SEPARATE FEATURE. AN AREA OF LOW PRES HAS
ALSO FORMED ON THIS WAVE NEAR 21N/22N. THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY BE
MADE HIGHER AMPLITUDE ON THE 00 UTC ANALYSIS TO REFLECT THIS.
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ARE UNFAVORABLE.

This was the 8 PM discussion about this wave.

[Kerry04]

Which way is this wave going?

[cycloneye]

So far I haven't seen the model suite for this new invest posted at OSU.By the way Florence model suite has not been out either in the last 2 runs at that site.

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/?C=M;O=D

[Jim Cantore]

How did it get free of Florence?

[wjs3]

So far I haven't seen the model suite for this new invest posted at OSU.By the way Florence model suite has not been out either in the last 2 runs at that site.

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/?C=M;O=D

NCEP is having all kinds of communication problems today. I think that might be causing the delay inmodel transmission to those sites.

[cycloneye]

So far I haven't seen the model suite for this new invest posted at OSU.By the way Florence model suite has not been out either in the last 2 runs at that site.

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/?C=M;O=D

NCEP is having all kinds of communication problems today. I think that might be causing the delay inmodel transmission to those sites.

Good to know that.Thanks for sharing that information not only to me but to the members.

[tropicana]

I knew Florence was too big to be normal...all this time she was pregnant without us knowing and had an offspring today. woohoo

[cycloneye]

How did it get free of Florence?

As Florence has moved more faster in the past 24 hours,it separated from ex 91L but they decided to label a new number 93L.

[Evil Jeremy]

I knew Florence was too big to be normal...all this time she was pregnant without us knowing and had an offspring today. woohoo

its a boy! Mama Florence and her close frineds at the NHC hope to name it soon. their considering "Gordon" for its name!

[Noah]

I knew Florence was too big to be normal...all this time she was pregnant without us knowing and had an offspring today. woohoo

[wxman57]

GFS indicates a track east of Florence - well out to sea. Looks reasonable as it is so far north already. May well experience too much shear to develop, though.

[CrazyC83]

It's a long way from Gordon anyway. It has all the trouble that Florence faced...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Satellite shows a nice LLC but the convection is being blown south. But this doe's prove that cyclones can have other cyclones.