TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics Thread #6

#81 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Sep 07, 2006 9:10 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:I'd say she has strengthened some.

It looks much better now!!!

Josephine96 · #82 Postby **Josephine96** » Thu Sep 07, 2006 9:12 pm

Maybe she finally has strenghtened some.. I'm getting tired of reading 50 mph on the advisories.. :wink:

#83 Postby **wxman57** » Thu Sep 07, 2006 9:13 pm

EDR1222 wrote:Good grief! Just got home and read the 5 pm advisory. Winds extending outward 405 miles from the center. I know its only a tropical storm, but I don't recall seeing a storm that size before.

A good part of that is due to a strong pressure gradient behind the cold front north and east of Florence. Fairly strong high pressure behind the front. South of Florence there are no TS-force winds.

#84 Postby **wxman57** » Thu Sep 07, 2006 9:14 pm

Josephine96 wrote:Maybe she finally has strenghtened some.. I'm getting tired of reading 50 mph on the advisories..

Those 50 mph advisories were probably a bit optimistic. I think Florence may really have 50 mph wind now.

Josephine96 · #85 Postby **Josephine96** » Thu Sep 07, 2006 9:16 pm

Great.. Just great :lol:

#86 Postby **wxman57** » Thu Sep 07, 2006 9:24 pm

Here are the 00Z dynamic models (no BAM/LBAR). They seem to be covering Bermuda now:

I removed all but two very good consensus models (CONU and CGUN) and both take Florence right over Bermuda (in yellow circle):

Rainband · #87 Postby **Rainband** » Thu Sep 07, 2006 9:27 pm

That may be bad news for Bremuda :cry:

Josephine96 · #88 Postby **Josephine96** » Thu Sep 07, 2006 9:30 pm

Probably not a good time to plan a vacation out in the middle of the Atlantic huh.. :wink:

#89 Postby **CrazyC83** » Thu Sep 07, 2006 9:31 pm

What are the elevations of Bermuda? How prone is it to storm surge?

#90 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Sep 07, 2006 9:33 pm

#91 Postby **wxman57** » Thu Sep 07, 2006 9:33 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:What are the elevations of Bermuda? How prone is it to storm surge?

Bermuda is not very prone to storm surge, as the water just offshore is very deep. Houses are built fairly sturdily, too.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #92 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Thu Sep 07, 2006 9:36 pm

Florenece is above normal in size but not huge. If it was not for that high to its north producing the pressure difference...Florenece would only have tropical storm force winds maybe out to 180 miles.

Josephine96 · #93 Postby **Josephine96** » Thu Sep 07, 2006 9:49 pm

Flo Jo's still at 50 mph.. well, maybe @ 5 am..

Sanibel · #94 Postby **Sanibel** » Thu Sep 07, 2006 9:52 pm

Black IR in co-located burst.

Now that's a hurricane!

Finally got the ULL in the right place I guess. (Venting)

#95 Postby **CrazyC83** » Thu Sep 07, 2006 9:57 pm

Josephine96 wrote:Flo Jo's still at 50 mph.. well, maybe @ 5 am..

I think that is lowballed - they should consider sending a Recon into her...

StormWarning1 · #96 Postby **StormWarning1** » Thu Sep 07, 2006 10:14 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
Josephine96 wrote:Flo Jo's still at 50 mph.. well, maybe @ 5 am..

I think that is lowballed - they should consider sending a Recon into her...

The 50 mph winds are probably a generous estimation. I doubt there are any 50mph sustained winds out there.

Derek Ortt · #97 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Thu Sep 07, 2006 10:14 pm

Bermuda is not that surge prone

They'll just get 50 foot or higher waves if this hits as a larger than Wilma major hurricane

f5 · #98 Postby f5 » Thu Sep 07, 2006 10:24 pm

if Florence had TS force winds out to 405 miles with 180 mph sustained winds then this would be a monster

Derek Ortt · #99 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Thu Sep 07, 2006 10:47 pm

it still is not organizing, no signs of banding features.

Still expecting significant intensification in a couple of days

cpdaman · #100 Postby **cpdaman** » Thu Sep 07, 2006 10:51 pm

NHC says that they don't understand why it hasn't strengthened more since all factors are in play, ( only in 2006)

maybe there are air force jets are getting militiary orders to do clould seeding to keep this thing at bay or something else (kidding , mostly)

TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics Thread #6

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