HH Hurricane Florence Forecast # Special Advisory 13

[boca]

I think Florence will get very close to the Outer Banks by 100 miles as it will be recurving at that time.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Evil Jeremy]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Tropical Storm Florence HH Advisory 3


Florence organizing but not strengthening

Tropical Storm Florence remains a weak TS with top winds of 45 MPH and a pressure of 1003 MB. Of course, there is a possibility that Florence can be stronger than that, because we can’t track the storm overnight that well. The storm continues in a WNW motion at 12 MPH, but it seems to be moving just north of due west. Our new cone has some big changes. At this time, all of the models forecast a weakness in the ridge that is pushing Florence to the west currently. This would allow the storm to recurve before hitting any land, but what we need to know is when it is going to happen. In our new cone, day 3 was budged a little north, along with days 4 and 5. Right now, the storm has a better chance of recurving than hitting land, but remember, this is not set in stone.

Recon flights are recommended for Friday

INITIAL 40KT<BR>
12HR 45KT
24HR 55KT
48HR 65KT
72HR 75KT
USE WITH CAUTION:
96HR 85KT
120HR 95KT

Forecaster Silberman

Next Update: Before Noon

[Evil Jeremy]

Florence continues to strengthen as the shear around it weakens. The pressure has also dropped to 1000 MB from 1003 MB. The one thing that I do not agree with the new NHC advisory is the forecast cone. The NHC, along with most of the models, forecast Florence to move north in the next 4-5 days. I think that a turn that big is very improbable because the storm has been moving in a general westward direction and all of the models keep on forecasting a more northward path than what is currently happening. Therefore, I expect the storm to keep on moving West of WNW for the next 3 days, with a little NW direction in days 4 and 5. I also think that the storm has been moving more West that WNW as indicated by the NHC. If Florence continues to strengthen, I will issue an advisory at 5PM EDT rather than at 8PM EDT tonight.

[weatherwoman]

now let me ask are you a pro met or just a what-a-be? i like reading what ever you are. keep it coming the news that is

[weatherwoman]

I think Florence will get very close to the Outer Banks by 100 miles as it will be recurving at that time.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

if flo gets within 100 miles of the ob then we here in north carolina will get hurricane winds since she is suppose to be 300 miles wide or 600 total

[Evil Jeremy]

now let me ask are you a pro met or just a what-a-be? i like reading what ever you are. keep it coming the news that is

im not a pro-met but trust me, i know my hurricanes.

[Evil Jeremy]

Tropical Storm Florence HH Advisory 4

Florence continues to become better organized as it nears the Caribbean.

Tropical Storm Florence has strengthened very little this afternoon. Only a slight drop of pressure has been caused. Another change is that the wind field has continued to expand today. The storm has also improved in organization, and is now a huge storm size wise. The NHC forecast cone has barely been changed, and so has ours, for now. For this advisory, we are using the same cone as before with a few changes. We are no longer expecting a landfall on the USA east coast, but category 2 hurricane winds in Bermuda without a landfall there. Florence is now moving at a slower rate of 9 miles per hour going WNW. We expect this to continue at a faster rate for the next two days, with a NW heading in days three and four, and a north or NNE heading on day five.

We advise that the residents in Bermuda should begin making preparations for a hurricane right now just in case. Also people in the Puerto Rico area should watch out for if the storm continues on a more west than north track and as the wind field expands.

INITIAL 45KT
12HR 50KT
24HR 60KT
48HR 75KT
72HR 85KT
USE WITH CAUTION:
96HR 95KT
120HR 105KT

Forecaster Silberman

[Evil Jeremy]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



Tropical Storm Florence HH Advisory 5


Florence continues to grow in size and continues to organize.


A Tropical Storm watch is recommended for the Puerto Rico area. This is recommended because even though Florence, on its current track, will be hundreds of miles away from the islands, the wind field is currently below a 300 mile radius and is expected to grow. For that reason, the TS watch was recommended. This recommendation, however, could be cancelled later today.

Florence did not strengthen at all overnight, although it grew even larger. Its wind field will continue to grow today from the current 290 mile radius. As the wind speeds climb and the pressure drops, the system will continue to organize, and Florence could become a hurricane tomorrow. For our new and more detailed cone, we have Florence heading West or WNW for the next 2 days, NW on day 3, NNW on day 4, and North or NNE on day 5. This is because of a shortwave that will pick Florence up. However, if Florence continues to move at a slow wait, it will move a little more westward than currently being forecasted before being picked up by another shortwave. If it does move along the current track, however, it will come close to Bermuda in 4 days. We do not expect a landfall there at this point, but hurricane conditions will most likely be felt there. We have not altered the intensity forecast at all. Over the past 24 hours, Florence has been absorbing energy from “Invest 91L”. This will continue, allowing for Florence to grow even more. A few models, such as the GFDL, show this storm growing into a monster in size, and possibility into one of the Atlantic oceans biggest storms in history.

Florence is still moving slowly at 10 MPH going WNW. This is expected to continue for the next two days with very little increase in speed.

A Hurricane Hunter aircraft will be entering Florence this afternoon to provide more information. If there are any major changes, we will issue a special advisory.


INITIAL 45KT
12HR 50KT
24HR 60KT
48HR 75KT
72HR 85KT
USE WITH CAUTION:
96HR 95KT
120HR 105KT

Forecaster Silberman

Next Update at: 11:00AM EDT

[Evil Jeremy]

Florence becomes a little more disorganized

We continue to advise a Tropical Storm Watch for the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and parts of the D.R. This recommendation would of been lifted if it wasn’t for the extended span of TS force wind speeds.

A hurricane or Tropical Storm watch might be advised for Bermuda Friday.

Tropical Storm Florence has become a little less organized since the previous advisory. This advisory will the 5:00PM EDT data.. The pressure is still at 1000 MB, regardless of the unorganization trend that Florence has been showing us all recently. Despite latest “SSD” reading, the winds are still at 45KT, or 50 MPH, although we feel that the NHC are being generous.

The biggest change of all in this advisory is the wind field, which has expanded to a 405 mile radius, and possibly larger. We expect this to grow a little more, and today could end with the radius even being at 450 miles.

For our new cone, we have turned it a little more east and a little less north. Bermuda, however is still in the cone, and should still watch out. This is in response to a change in the models and the Pro-Mets on “Storm2k”. Now, development into a hurricane is not expected for around another 40 hours. Please note that the forecast line is not supposed to be the center of the cone, but the most favored path. For the next 2 days, Florence should head WNW at an average speed of 12 MPH. On day 3, Florence will turn NW at the same speed. On days 4 and 5, Florence should gain some speed as it turns north. Location wise, the new cone takes us away from any land, as it should become a hurricane about 750 miles NE of the SE Bahamas, and become a Cat 2 in 3-4 days as it nears Bermuda. On the new cone, Bermuda should not get a direct hit, but should get at least Cat 1 wind speeds.

An update will be online sometime after 8:00PM EDT tonight.

The wind estimates below might differ from the ones on our forecast track.

INITIAL 45KT
12HR 50KT
24HR 55KT
48HR 65KT
72HR 75KT
USE WITH CAUTION:
96HR 85KT
120HR 100KT

[Derek Ortt]

TS watch for a whole 10 mph of wind

May as well put the whole world under a TS watch then

TS winds will not even come close to the Caribbean

[Evil Jeremy]

TS watch for a whole 10 mph of wind

May as well put the whole world under a TS watch then

TS winds will not even come close to the Caribbean

It is a possibility for if the windfield continues to expand.

[CrazyC83]

TS watch for a whole 10 mph of wind

May as well put the whole world under a TS watch then

TS winds will not even come close to the Caribbean

It is a possibility for if the windfield continues to expand.

That's why the word "Watch" is there. (I know Derek Ortt doesn't recommend TS watches)

[Evil Jeremy]

TS watch for a whole 10 mph of wind

May as well put the whole world under a TS watch then

TS winds will not even come close to the Caribbean

It is a possibility for if the windfield continues to expand.

That's why the word "Watch" is there. (I know Derek Ortt doesn't recommend TS watches)

thank you for proving my point.

[CrazyC83]

TS watch for a whole 10 mph of wind

May as well put the whole world under a TS watch then

TS winds will not even come close to the Caribbean

It is a possibility for if the windfield continues to expand.

That's why the word "Watch" is there. (I know Derek Ortt doesn't recommend TS watches)

thank you for proving my point.

No problem - even though I would not recommend such, you see a different scenario as I do.

[wxmann_91]

TS watch for a whole 10 mph of wind

May as well put the whole world under a TS watch then

TS winds will not even come close to the Caribbean

It is a possibility for if the windfield continues to expand.

There's really not much of a possibility. It will not have much chance to expand to the south before being swept away from the Antilles, remember we still have a shearing ULL to the west.

[Evil Jeremy]

TS watch for a whole 10 mph of wind

May as well put the whole world under a TS watch then

TS winds will not even come close to the Caribbean

It is a possibility for if the windfield continues to expand.

There's really not much of a possibility. It will not have much chance to expand to the south before being swept away from the Antilles, remember we still have a shearing ULL to the west.

i recommended it JUST IN CASE it was necessary.

[wxmann_91]

i recommended it JUST IN CASE it was necessary.

In that case, TS watches may be hoisted for the East Coast in a few days. Maybe you have a different definition of a TS Watch than the NHC has, or issue it more bullishly.

Don't take offense please - although I disagree with that recommendation of a TS Watch, I still believe you have a great forecast, although I do not believe now that it will attain MH status.

[Evil Jeremy]

Don't take offense please - although I disagree with that recommendation of a TS Watch, I still believe you have a great forecast, although I do not believe now that it will attain MH status.

its ok. everyone has there own prediction! my definition of a TS watch might be a little diffrent. my version means that TS conditions have any kind of possibility of being felt there in 2 days. and seeing the storms wind field, i still see it as a slight possibility.

[Evil Jeremy]

Florence continues to orginizem but will not strengthen. the major change with tonights update is that the Recommended Tropical Storm Watches have been removed for the Northern Leeward Islands, the Puerto Rico area, and parts of the D.R. they have been replaced with "HHRFC Storm Alerts". A "Storm Alert" is an independant product from the HHRFC. The areas affected should keep track of Florenco, as it could be affecting you all in 1-3 days." In the case of the caribbean islands, some rain can be expected from Florences outflow as it moves above your area. More "Storm Alerts" will likely be issued for Bermuda at the 8:00AM EDT HHRFC advisory.

[Evil Jeremy]

Florence still not strengthing

The recommended TS watch for parts of the Lesser Antilles has been discontinued. The recommended watches in Puerto Rico and the D.R., however, were replaced with “HHRFC Storm Alerts”. A “Storm Alert” is an independent warning. It means that the areas affected could feel some kind of tropical weather in 1-3 days. In the case of the Caribbean Islands, some rain is possible as Florence moves above you all.

A “HHRFC Storm Alert” has also been issued for Bermuda, as it has entered the 3 day cone. I would not be surprised if a Hurricane watch goes up for there today.

Remember, a “Storm Alert” is a private warning from the HHRFC, and should not be treated like an official product. Always trust advisories from the NHC first.

Florence has not strengthened at all now for over 24 hours, as its winds remain at 50 MPH. The Pressure has not changed either. This is good news for Bermuda. More good news is that the wind field has not expanded, although it is forecast to soon. Florence continues to move to the WNW at 16 MPH. This should continue for another 24-36 hours, after which Florence should turn NW and then North, and finally NNE.

After Florence takes a break in Bermuda, or rather after she breaks Bermuda apart, she will gain tons of speed and head NE. parts of Canada should watch future advisories for more info.

Intensity wise, the cone is a little lower. It shows Florence as a Hurricane in 36 hours, and as a strong Cat 2 while nearing Bermuda. After Bermuda, Florence will hit somewhat cooler waters and begin to weaken as it slowly becomes Extra-Tropical.

INITIAL 45KT
12HR 50KT
24HR 60KT
48HR 70KT
72HR 85KT
USE WITH CAUTION:
96HR 85KT
120HR 75KT

Forecaster Silberman